GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Holmes]

I have a feeling Dems will fall short in all 5 special elections and it will mean nothing for 2018.

Republicans should win in South Carolina comfortably and they didn't even make the runoff in California.

[MaxQue]

Calling for a move to the center after a series of losses is trolling now? I'm old enough to remember a time when it was common sense. The days of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton -- long gone now.

Clinton lost in November and Blair have sub-20 approvals, now.

[Matty]

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jeez. It really was a ks-4 redux.

[The Other Castro]

NYT calls runoff.

Also if I hear one more person say that all Dems need to do is move to the center...

[publicunofficial]

Calling for a move to the center after a series of losses is trolling now? I'm old enough to remember a time when it was common sense. The days of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton -- long gone now.

Ossoff is pro-choice, thinks banning Muslims is "unconstitutional", and opposes repealing Obamacare, all of which are probably unpopular positions. He is not a "moderate", which is what a district like this and KS and MT call for.

You can put it back on at any point.

[Xing]

I mean, obviously Evan Bayh would have gotten 60% in this race.

[Maxwell]

I mean, obviously Evan Bayh would have gotten 60% in this race.

that's not true, Bayh lost by double digits in 20... oh you were being sarcastic

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

[publicunofficial]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

Think Jim Clyburn knows there's a special in SC-05?

[Pandaguineapig]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

You guys dropped $10 million on this race and matched Clinton's performance

[Maxwell]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

You guys dropped $10 million on this race and matched Clinton's performance

Money where most of it hasn't even been dropped yet, while Republicans have already blown $6 million on anti-Ossoff ads. All while Ossoff hasn't dropped a dime in Anti-Handel ads and, again, he still has a whole lot of his $8.3 Million.

[Matty]

Yep.

Research shows that special elections are more in line with the most recent presidential vote than with the most recent house race.

[DrScholl]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

You guys dropped $10 million on this race and matched Clinton's performance

It would be more productive to worry about your side's prospects. Republicans barely forced a runoff in a traditionally Republican district.

[Dr. Arch]

I am beyond disappointed although unsurprised. It's astounding how we have an incompetent excuse for a president in the White House, and the Democrats can't get their act together. It's just loss after loss, and it's the regular citizens that suffer from it in the end. MT is their last chance to show that they can do something about it.

[MT Treasurer]

Yep.

Research shows that special elections are more in line with the most recent presidential vote than with the most recent house race.

Probably true, but that's definitely not going to be the case in Montana.

[smoltchanov]

Good result (i expected Ossoff to get 45-46%). May be - not great (that would be an outright victory), but, surely - good. Right now i see run-off as 50-50 affair, though a lot can change in 2 months...

Now the most interesting thing will, probably, be Montana-AL (i don't see Democrats winning SC-05, it's very different from districts like GA-06, though even there Democrats may get decent results like KS-04)

[The Other Castro]

I am beyond disappointed although unsurprised. It's astounding how we have an incompetent excuse for a president in the White House, and the Democrats can't get their act together. It's just loss after loss, and it's the regular citizens that suffer from it in the end. MT is their last chance to show that they can do something about it.

This race isn't lost, Ossoff has pretty close to even odds in the runoff. That Dems might be disappointed by this is ridiculous.

[Matty]

I am beyond disappointed although unsurprised. It's astounding how we have an incompetent excuse for a president in the White House, and the Democrats can't get their act together. It's just loss after loss, and it's the regular citizens that suffer from it in the end. MT is their last chance to show that they can do something about it.

Rome wasn't built in a day

[Horus]

I am beyond disappointed although unsurprised. It's astounding how we have an incompetent excuse for a president in the White House, and the Democrats can't get their act together. It's just loss after loss, and it's the regular citizens that suffer from it in the end. MT is their last chance to show that they can do something about it.

Calm down, this was expected! We're in a decent position for the runoff.

[DrScholl]

It's like some here do not know that there is a run-off.

[Matty]

Good night guys. Sorry for my erratic posting earlier in the thread. I had just finished with a joint and was feeling it.

Tonight was exciting and a nailbiter.

2017 is off to a enthralling start, politically!

Peace out!!

[Pandaguineapig]

I realize this is a very Atlas-ish thing to point out, but both of the people advancing to the runoff are Jewish.  Is GA-6 a particularly Jewish district relative to others, or is that just a coincidence?

Georgia(mostly Atlanta) has a large Jewish population for the south, so while not likely an all Jewish runoff would be more likely to happen here than in any other district in the state

[Holmes]

Yep.

Research shows that special elections are more in line with the most recent presidential vote than with the most recent house race.

In Georgia it was, not Kansas. I expect it to be the case in South Carolina, but not Montana.

[RI]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

The more relevant comparisons are to 2014 in KS and to the 2016 Presidential race in GA...

[Pandaguineapig]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

The more relevant comparisons are to 2014 in KS and to the 2016 Presidential race in GA...

Debenedetti is a notorious hack, take his tweets with a grain of salt