GA-6 Special election discussion thread
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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 249016 times)
Holmes
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« Reply #1650 on: April 19, 2017, 12:35:55 AM »

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

The more relevant comparisons are to 2014 in KS and to the 2016 Presidential race in GA...

It's best to compare apples to apples, not apples to oranges.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1651 on: April 19, 2017, 12:36:41 AM »

We need to focus on more practical gains instead of squandering many resources going on random goose chases in such red turf. Let's focus on wins we actually have a fighting chance of pulling off victories such as districts in socal, florida, virginia, texas, nebraska 2nd, iowa, and arizona just to name a few. It's time for us to get practical here. Our republican friends are right, we are blowing resources on lost causes, when we don't need to be doing that, instead we could be doing better things.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1652 on: April 19, 2017, 12:37:12 AM »

Ossoff statement on results:

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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #1653 on: April 19, 2017, 12:39:03 AM »

We need to focus on more practical gains instead of squandering many resources going on random goose chases in such red turf. Let's focus on wins we actually have a fighting chance of pulling off victories such as districts in socal, florida, virginia, texas, nebraska 2nd, iowa, and arizona just to name a few. It's time for us to get practical here. Our republican friends are right, we are blowing resources on lost causes, when we don't need to be doing that, instead we could be doing better things.
Ga-6 is actually a good target as a suburban district Trump only won by one percent. Wasting $10 million so far(almost certain to be more in the runoff) on a single district is stupid
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1654 on: April 19, 2017, 12:39:08 AM »

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1655 on: April 19, 2017, 12:40:14 AM »


That's pretty ironic... it's time for us to abandon him. This is now officially a lost cause. His best, and possibly only shot was tonight, and he blew it. I wish him all the best for june, but handel will "man-handel" him pretty badly.
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Matty
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« Reply #1656 on: April 19, 2017, 12:40:23 AM »

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.

Silicon valley- you mean the place where companies rake in 10%+ profit margins and underpay tech workers?

Shouldn't berniebots NOT like some of the left's glorification of the tech sector?
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Shadows
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« Reply #1657 on: April 19, 2017, 12:41:39 AM »

Fantastic result. Ossoff is at 48.3% now & the 4 other Dems have 0.9%, so the total Dem vote is 49.2%. The Dem-GOP Vote is effectively split around 50-50. And let's be honest, no candidate can get all votes of contendders, not Obama, Hillary or Bernie or Trump.

Ossoff needs just a mere 1.7% from the combined GOP Vote & other Dem vote. This should be reasonably easy. Atleast 10-15% of the vote is definitely possible which will put Ossoff at 53-56% odd. Either way if the Dems can't win this race now, they should just change the entire management.
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Horus
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« Reply #1658 on: April 19, 2017, 12:42:33 AM »


That's pretty ironic... it's time for us to abandon him. This is now officially a lost cause. His best, and possibly only shot was tonight, and he blew it. I wish him all the best for june, but handel will "man-handel" him pretty badly.

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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #1659 on: April 19, 2017, 12:45:18 AM »

A big thank you to marty for reminding me why I had you on ignore.  Daft I was to ever change that.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1660 on: April 19, 2017, 12:46:23 AM »

The attack ad on selling his documentaries to al jazeera was just propaganda bullbleep, but I will have to give credit to the republicans on the fact that Mr. Ossoff does not even live in the district he is running for, not to mention getting most all his money from outside the state, it is clear to me that his loyalties do not lie with the 6th district. He is just trying to ride a blue wave into office. Honestly he still has my support, since he was better than the 17 others, (well I did not look at the other dems that much since they were not viable) but compared with other practical options, he was the best one. And between Handel and him, I still support him. He is the lesser of all buffoons, but none the less, I am not a big fan of his.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1661 on: April 19, 2017, 12:49:47 AM »

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.

But he got my)) Prefer "business progressive pragmatism" of Silicon Valley to "yahoo populism"....
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1662 on: April 19, 2017, 12:50:47 AM »

The attack ad on selling his documentaries to al jazeera was just propaganda bullbleep, but I will have to give credit to the republicans on the fact that Mr. Ossoff does not even live in the district he is running for, not to mention getting most all his money from outside the state, it is clear to me that his loyalties do not lie with the 6th district. He is just trying to ride a blue wave into office. Honestly he still has my support, since he was better than the 17 others, (well I did not look at the other dems that much since they were not viable) but compared with other practical options, he was the best one. And between Handel and him, I still support him. He is the lesser of all buffoons, but none the less, I am not a big fan of his.

I think you are trying way too hard.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1663 on: April 19, 2017, 12:51:26 AM »

Ok let's not act like he came 2% from a majority tonight and will lose by 10% in June.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1664 on: April 19, 2017, 12:51:59 AM »

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20
You guys dropped $10 million on this race and matched Clinton's performance

Which is nothing to scoff at. They will actually probably outperform Hillary by about 2% when Dems are added together. Consider that it usually takes years for downballot to catch up to the Presidential topline. It's only five months later. Anyone thinking this is a bad showing for Democrats is on some nice crack.

Also, people assuming that Handel will get 100% of the other R voters should be warned. Handel hasn't really been attacked yet, other than a small CFG ad buy. When the hits about her being a career politician who can't keep a job inevitably go on air, come back to me. FWIW, Ossoff was either tied or narrowly leading her in all runoff polling, and these are polls that underestimated his jungle primary showing. This thing is a tossup.

Absolutely agree
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1665 on: April 19, 2017, 12:55:35 AM »

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1666 on: April 19, 2017, 01:02:03 AM »

   If this had been an open seat in last years general election I wonder how it would have gone. Guessing GOP win in the 55-45 range.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1667 on: April 19, 2017, 01:05:02 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2017, 01:12:30 AM by Ronnie »

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.
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Hammy
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« Reply #1668 on: April 19, 2017, 01:07:16 AM »

A loss is a loss. More proof that the Democrats need to move to the center. This isn't Kenosha. A DLC Democrat like Zell Miller might've had a chance here.

Moving closer to the center will further suppress turnout of progressives--which is literally why Donald Trump is president in the first place.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1669 on: April 19, 2017, 01:07:57 AM »

So for people saying Ossoff loses support in the runoff, are you saying some of his voters will switch to Handel or that his voters won't all turn up whereas Republicans will have more consistent turnout and all vote for her?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1670 on: April 19, 2017, 01:15:30 AM »

So for people saying Ossoff loses support in the runoff, are you saying some of his voters will switch to Handel or that his voters won't all turn up whereas Republicans will have more consistent turnout and all vote for her?

Think what happened to Wyche Fowler against Cloverdell. Whatever the exact reason there is likely the exact reason again.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1671 on: April 19, 2017, 01:17:01 AM »

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.

Silicon valley- you mean the place where companies rake in 10%+ profit margins and underpay tech workers?

Shouldn't berniebots NOT like some of the left's glorification of the tech sector?

The liberals that I see praising Silicon Valley the most are DLC types.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1672 on: April 19, 2017, 01:21:18 AM »

So for people saying Ossoff loses support in the runoff, are you saying some of his voters will switch to Handel or that his voters won't all turn up whereas Republicans will have more consistent turnout and all vote for her?

he probably won't lose support, and I am undecided if his turnout rate will decrease, though I doubt it will increase, but I think Handel will form a GOP coalition that will have a high turnout and smack Ossoff silly. Handel is fairly moderate and regular old school party centric GOP member, which works well in suburban areas, and she is a strong female figure that could help garner and turnout moderate/very center barely right, middle aged suburban house wives. She is the perfect candidate for the district, and has already gotten the support from some of her defeated GOP opponents. She will stitch together a coalition, and they will turn out big on election day in june, especially after seeing how close Ossoff did. I don't see Ossoff turning out anymore, since I feel like his enthusiasm cap has reached its limit, and is fizzling down. He blew his chance tonight, while Handel over-performed.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #1673 on: April 19, 2017, 01:23:13 AM »

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.

You gotta wisely pick which battles are worth fighting, and this is no longer one of them.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1674 on: April 19, 2017, 01:25:27 AM »

So you give up on a winnable race because you were less than 2% from a majority in the first round.
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