GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I mean personally if Republicans want to ignore lessons from races like this and KS-4 that really should not have been in contention and pretend everything is hunky dory and nothing is wrong and they don't have to change anything then I don't think we should stop them

[Gass3268]

Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.

I'm sorry but this level of reality denying and fantasy land is only amusing me, nothing more.

The truth is that we have a 50/50 district going 51/49 GOP in a special election which always is favorable to the Opposition. I explained why a week ago in the Kansas thread.

So, there's nothing for Dems to celebrate and nothing for the GOP to be scared of. If the Dems can't flip 50/50 districts, they will not even come close of taking the House.

And no, I'm feeling pretty damn miserable this morning (or meanwhile afternoon in Germany) but has nothing to do with politics, it's because of Soccer...

Not a 50/50 district, R+9 district:

[Ronnie]

Have any presidents had as much of a proclivity for intensifying polarization, and trying to use it to their advantage, as Trump?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/854676780527079425

[Hindsight was 2020]

Have any presidents had as much of a proclivity for intensifying polarization, and trying to use it to their advantage, as Trump?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/854676780527079425

Notbin recent history

[Sorenroy]

So for people saying Ossoff loses support in the runoff, are you saying some of his voters will switch to Handel or that his voters won't all turn up whereas Republicans will have more consistent turnout and all vote for her?

he probably won't lose support, and I am undecided if his turnout rate will decrease, though I doubt it will increase, but I think Handel will form a GOP coalition that will have a high turnout and smack Ossoff silly. Handel is fairly moderate and regular old school party centric GOP member, which works well in suburban areas, and she is a strong female figure that could help garner and turnout moderate/very center barely right, middle aged suburban house wives. She is the perfect candidate for the district, and has already gotten the support from some of her defeated GOP opponents. She will stitch together a coalition, and they will turn out big on election day in june, especially after seeing how close Ossoff did. I don't see Ossoff turning out anymore, since I feel like his enthusiasm cap has reached its limit, and is fizzling down. He blew his chance tonight, while Handel over-performed.

So, let's make one thing clear. While Ossoff might lose to Handel in the second round, it will not be because of lower turnout. Ossoff comes into the second round having already gotten 48.10% of the vote. While it is conceivable that some of this support may fade in the next two months, I highly doubt that that loss will be significant. Mixed with the fact that the other scattered Democrats got 0.88% of the vote, I am fairly certain that Ossoff will not see a decline in the raw number between the two rounds of the election. On the other hand, Handel is coming into round two with only 19.78%. While Republicans combined did win a total of 51.02%, it is a steep assumption to say that Handel will win all of those votes.

So, your assumption is that Handel will win, but turnout will not go up. In order to make up the 54,397 vote, or 28.32%, gap without increased turnout, Handel will need to unite 90.66% of the scattered Republican vote (88.16% of all the scattered votes) in order to win. That's not impossible, but that assumes 0% of the scattered Democratic, Independent, and Republican vote goes to Ossoff.

[Klartext89]

Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.

I'm sorry but this level of reality denying and fantasy land is only amusing me, nothing more.

The truth is that we have a 50/50 district going 51/49 GOP in a special election which always is favorable to the Opposition. I explained why a week ago in the Kansas thread.

So, there's nothing for Dems to celebrate and nothing for the GOP to be scared of. If the Dems can't flip 50/50 districts, they will not even come close of taking the House.

And no, I'm feeling pretty damn miserable this morning (or meanwhile afternoon in Germany) but has nothing to do with politics, it's because of Soccer...

Not a 50/50 district, R+9 district:

There you see the vulnerability of the Cook PVI. It was won in November by ONE point and that's the state of the district we are looking at now.

[The Mikado]

My preelection prediction was Ossoff 47. Final result Ossoff 48. Not bad.

At this point, the test is whether Karen Handel can convince the 3/5ths of GA06 GOP voters who didn't vote for her to show up next time.

[Brittain33]

There you see the vulnerability of the Cook PVI. It was won in November by ONE point and that's the state of the district we are looking at now.

Nope, Price won it by 20 points or more. The Republican candidate on the ballot is a well-known Republican officeholder in the district, not a lying racebaiter who brags about assaulting women. That's the state of the district we are looking at now.

[RI]

Comparing a seat with a popular incumbent to an open seat is not particularly relevant.

[GlobeSoc]

I think that the Gray voters are probably handels biggest hurdle. She needs to get them to win.

[Brittain33]

Treating Hillary's numbers as if they are the Democratic floor is laughable, but nice spin everyone.

[Classic Conservative]

I think that the Gray voters are probably handels biggest hurdle. She needs to get them to win.

If you look on his twitter, most of his voters are hoping aboard the Handel Campaign.

[RI]

Comparing a seat with a popular incumbent to an open seat is not particularly relevant.

Treating Hillary's numbers as if they are the Democratic floor is laughable, but nice spin everyone.

Oh please, you're not doing any better.

[windjammer]

Well, of course republicans absolutely need to campaign here. They have a problem with turnout, if they cannot fix their turnout and that this is similar with the first round, they lose.

[rob in cal]

  Surprisingly enough Handel is the predictit favorite at about 60-40 so far.  I think this number is going to change toward Ossoff in the coming days.

[BaldEagle1991]

 Surprisingly enough Handel is the predictit favorite at about 60-40 so far.  I think this number is going to change toward Ossoff in the coming days.

Hope so.

I'm banking on the idea that Jon Ossoff will be the Democratic Scott Brown. A young candidate being used as a microcosm of checking the party in power.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?

[Brittain33]

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?

He can't help himself. It's what the Cable News hosts are talking about, and he has to respond.

[The Other Castro]

Damn...I was so close. No predicit riches for me.

Couldn't you have cashed out early?

I'm just gonna leave my shares till the run off and not look at them.

I'm either gonna win $1500 or lose $500.

Also, godamn the trolling on Predicits message boards are insane

Never never never read the comment boards. You will lose all your money.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?

Burying their heads in the sand... Sounds like a great Republican strategy for 2018

[The_Doctor]

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?

They'll look small and stupid if they vote down an infrastructure plan. What does it matter? He holds all the cards right now and you'll have to take them away  one by one before you can stop him on the infrastructure plan. He's gonna give your side just about everything they want because he happens to be basically a Democrat on infrastructure/related funding issues. He'll piss on you all the way to the bank until 2020, which is the next serious opportunity for a reset by Dems.

[Gass3268]

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.

I've watched hardcore Gingrich/Santorum voters jump to Romney in a heartbeat, usually starting with a caveat like "Mitt's a good guy" and ending with "but Reagan said never attack another Republican."

Uniting behind the nominee is a natural Republican tradition. I was attacked quite angrily on social media by some of these Republican grannies for voting for Gary Johnson in 2012, for example. Even hardcore Trump voters were against him mounting an independent campaign and were prepared to hold their nose again for Jeb if they had too. It really is quite fascinating how strong Reagan's legacy is among Republicans. It is a precedent-setter for future generations, I suspect.

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

I'm certainly mistaken, but I for some reason remember that being exactly the case when Gingrich first ran. I might be confusing the maps though.

[Ronnie]

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?

They'll look small and stupid if they vote down an infrastructure plan. What does it matter? He holds all the cards right now and you'll have to take them away  one by one before you can stop him on the infrastructure plan. He's gonna give your side just about everything they want because he happens to be basically a Democrat on infrastructure/related funding issues. He'll piss on you all the way to the bank until 2020, which is the next serious opportunity for a reset by Dems.

One: it's hard to view a president who is desperate for any legislative accomplishment and who has a 40% approval rating as "holding all the cards".

Two: I'll believe that he'll "give Democrats everything they want" on infrastructure when I see it.