GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Gass3268]

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.

I've watched hardcore Gingrich/Santorum voters jump to Romney in a heartbeat, usually starting with a caveat like "Mitt's a good guy" and ending with "but Reagan said never attack another Republican."

Uniting behind the nominee is a natural Republican tradition. I was attacked quite angrily on social media by some of these Republican grannies for voting for Gary Johnson in 2012, for example. Even hardcore Trump voters were against him mounting an independent campaign and were prepared to hold their nose again for Jeb if they had too. It really is quite fascinating how strong Reagan's legacy is among Republicans. It is a precedent-setter for future generations, I suspect.

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

I'm certainly mistaken, but I for some reason remember that being exactly the case when Gingrich first ran. I might be confusing the maps though.

Yup, the 6th was south of Atlanta then, making up a lot of what is now the Southern part of the metro (I don't think it was as much then). They then split his district in three, pulling the more Republican suburban areas into rural Dem areas, and built a new 6th out of the very Republican areas of the North Metro as a vote sink. He then moved to the new district a barely won a primary in the new district (like only a percentage point or 2). Crazy to think how different the 90's to today may have been if he would have lost that primary.

The Old 6th:

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Spicer now got up an called this an "big loss" for the dems and repeated that "spent 8 million" lie. Quick question why is Trump keeping throwing bombs on stuff like this when by his own admission he needs dems for his infrastructure plan?

They'll look small and stupid if they vote down an infrastructure plan. What does it matter? He holds all the cards right now and you'll have to take them away  one by one before you can stop him on the infrastructure plan. He's gonna give your side just about everything they want because he happens to be basically a Democrat on infrastructure/related funding issues. He'll piss on you all the way to the bank until 2020, which is the next serious opportunity for a reset by Dems.

Ok a president who couldn't get a key policy through despite controlling both houses and doesn't get along with his own party is not called "the man holding all the cards" he's called Jimmy Carter

[The_Doctor]

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

Reminding me a lot of NoVA in the mid-2000's, honestly.

Yup. North Virginia rapidly bluing, and turned the state from rock ribbed Republican to reliably Democratic. The same thing is happening in Georgia to an extent, where suburbanites are fleeing the GOP in droves. Georgia has steadily become less Republican since 2004, due to racial demographics, but even then so, the Atlanta suburbs are rapidly diversifying as well.

I predict Georgia's legislature will start trending bluer by the 2020s. Which brings me to the second part of my comments ...

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

If they control the legislature by the 2020s by a veto proof majority. Otherwise, if the Democrats hold the gubernatorial mansion, they could be forced into a compromise which preserves the seat for the Democrats.

For a lot of reasons, I think GA Democrats will begin to become a lot more successful as we go into the 2020s. We're seeing the same thing that happened in VA in 2001 happen to GA.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Bernie Sanders says he is not ready to endorse Jon Ossoff because he "doesn't know whether or not he's a progressive"

[heatcharger]

Bernie Sanders says he is not ready to endorse Jon Ossoff because he "doesn't know whether or not he's a progressive"

This is probably the worst district in the country for Sanders to be involved in, and I hope Berniecrats understand this well. Let's hope he stays out.

[DrScholl]

Why does Sanders' opinion even matter? He needs to retire, because his holy roller act is old.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Bernie Sanders says he is not ready to endorse Jon Ossoff because he "doesn't know whether or not he's a progressive"

Okay that is just annoying on Bernie's part

[Maxwell]

Uniting behind the nominee is one thing. But Republicans do not have to shed many voters to lose this thing.

[cinyc]

Uniting behind the nominee is one thing. But Republicans do not have to shed many voters to lose this thing.

Assume that the runoff electorate will be the same as the jungle primary electorate at your own peril.  Often times, turnout is lower.  But sometimes, like in Mississippi in 2014, turnout is higher.  But it is rarely the exact same.

[Maxwell]

Uniting behind the nominee is one thing. But Republicans do not have to shed many voters to lose this thing.

Assume that the runoff electorate will be the same as the jungle primary electorate at your own peril.  Often times, turnout is lower.  But sometimes, like in Mississippi in 2014, turnout is higher.  But it is rarely the exact same.

I also agree with this and it's one of my worries - that GOP turnout will go up because of the fright of potentially losing this district. Nevertheless, it looks like the Ossoff team is going to continue to put energy into this race.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bernie Sanders says he is not ready to endorse Jon Ossoff because he "doesn't know whether or not he's a progressive"

Jesus fucking Christ.

[publicunofficial]

Bernie Sanders says he is not ready to endorse Jon Ossoff because he "doesn't know whether or not he's a progressive"

To be fair, I also have pretty much no idea what Ossoff's ideology is.

[Lourdes]

Bernie Sanders says he is not ready to endorse Jon Ossoff because he "doesn't know whether or not he's a progressive"

Hasn't he ruined the Democratic party enough already?

[vote for pedro]

His message to Republicans is "I'm almost as conservative as you.  Cut government waste, yada yada."  Pretty smart message for an R+ district.

His message to Democrats and Independents is "vote for me to make Trump furious."

So who knows what his real ideology is.

[Maxwell]

From what I can tell Ossoff is pretty much a centrist - though maybe leans a little left on social issues. Not definitively a progressive, but probably not smart strategically for Senator Sanders to say that (though this isn't exactly a Team Bernie district).

[publicunofficial]

An endorsement is pretty worthless if the person you got it from endorses every single Democrat running for office.

Not sure what people are getting mad at here. It's not like Bernie called him a neoliberal shill.

[Brittain33]

I was mad at hell at Bernie through most of 2016, but his statement here is pretty accurate (if unhelpful).

[Tintrlvr]

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.

I've watched hardcore Gingrich/Santorum voters jump to Romney in a heartbeat, usually starting with a caveat like "Mitt's a good guy" and ending with "but Reagan said never attack another Republican."

Uniting behind the nominee is a natural Republican tradition. I was attacked quite angrily on social media by some of these Republican grannies for voting for Gary Johnson in 2012, for example. Even hardcore Trump voters were against him mounting an independent campaign and were prepared to hold their nose again for Jeb if they had too. It really is quite fascinating how strong Reagan's legacy is among Republicans. It is a precedent-setter for future generations, I suspect.

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

I'm certainly mistaken, but I for some reason remember that being exactly the case when Gingrich first ran. I might be confusing the maps though.

Yup, the 6th was south of Atlanta then, making up a lot of what is now the Southern part of the metro (I don't think it was as much then). They then split his district in three, pulling the more Republican suburban areas into rural Dem areas, and built a new 6th out of the very Republican areas of the North Metro as a vote sink. He then moved to the new district a barely won a primary in the new district (like only a percentage point or 2). Crazy to think how different the 90's to today may have been if he would have lost that primary.

The Old 6th:

Pretty shocking how different Clayton County was then, too. Can you imagine a Republican winning it now!? Obviously would also be a shock for a Dem to win those rural counties, but that story is well told.

[rob in cal]

   Did Ossoff have an active role during the presidential primary campaign for Clinton?

[Classic Conservative]

I just learned that one of my former teachers is good friends with Ossoff's grandparents.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Bernie didn't exactly, uh, phrase that the way I would have, but yeah, this is probably not a district where his influence carries much weight.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

This is the first time Bernie had shown moral authority since the election, and I hope for more of it. Then again, since he's working with Perez I guess that's a far fetched dream.

[cvparty]

wow this was close...

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

This is the first time Bernie had shown moral authority since the election, and I hope for more of it. Then again, since he's working with Perez I guess that's a far fetched dream.

Out of curiosity: Why are you a Democrat and not a Green?

I suppose the same reason Sanders is a Democrat. No one wants to be part of an irrelevant party.

Edit: I realize Sanders isn't an actual Democrat. But progressives need the party for relevance.

[Hammy]

Why isn't anyone here thinking this could've been a strategic move on Sanders part? I live in Georgia near the district so I get to see all the ads (despite living outside of it) and most of the attack ads on Ossoff are already calling him too liberal and a rubber-stamp Democrat as it is--a Sanders endorsement will just add fuel to the attacks. This isn't a national race but a local one and the voting habits need to be taken into consideration.