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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 99660 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #1875 on: April 20, 2017, 06:36:38 am »
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If he wins here, he could be a threat in an open Senate seat down the line.

I was just thinking that. If Republicans really are malicious enough to try to gerrymander him out in either 2018 or 2020, that Perdue's Senate seat is always up for grabs.

Pretty sure the next open seat in GA would be tilt D. I expect GA pull a CO transition in the next decade.
I think VA would be a better comparison.  CO at least has a slight chance to go (non-Atlas) red in the near future.
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« Reply #1876 on: April 20, 2017, 06:59:48 am »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.

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« Reply #1877 on: April 20, 2017, 07:39:48 am »

Anyone who thinks MS will tip quietly into the Democratic column because of demographic change should consider the state's history as a majority-black state and what the NC GOP has done in response to a similar situation. It's not going to "be allowed" to happen.
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« Reply #1878 on: April 20, 2017, 09:02:12 am »
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What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

This bodes well for the rest of the South.

Just North Carolina and Florida, and Texas marginally. Virginia is already "there".
North Carolina and Florida are probably going to remain tossup states in 20 years. But yes, I do concede that Georgia is not a matter of "if," but a matter of "when" with regards to becoming Safe D.

If Georgia goes Democratic why wouldn't North Carolina? North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia all have strong metropolitan centers and NC and GA have strong minority populations as well. I can see GA, NC, VA as the firewall in the New Democratic South. And I remind you, North Carolina went Trump by 2.5%, while Georgia did it by 6%.3

Mississippi, Texas, and South Carolina will take longer to flip (Obama won 44% in SC and 43% in MS so they're not out of reach) but they're not undoable.

I argue -- as I have elsewhere -- that a anti-neoliberal coalition of poor whites and minorities and struggling middle class voters -- will power the Democratic Party in the South and elsewhere. Suburban voters in Atlanta is easily part of the coalition.
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« Reply #1879 on: April 20, 2017, 09:17:18 am »
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What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

This bodes well for the rest of the South.

Just North Carolina and Florida, and Texas marginally. Virginia is already "there".
North Carolina and Florida are probably going to remain tossup states in 20 years. But yes, I do concede that Georgia is not a matter of "if," but a matter of "when" with regards to becoming Safe D.

If Georgia goes Democratic why wouldn't North Carolina? North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia all have strong metropolitan centers and NC and GA have strong minority populations as well. I can see GA, NC, VA as the firewall in the New Democratic South. And I remind you, North Carolina went Trump by 2.5%, while Georgia did it by 6%.3

Mississippi, Texas, and South Carolina will take longer to flip (Obama won 44% in SC and 43% in MS so they're not out of reach) but they're not undoable.

I argue -- as I have elsewhere -- that a anti-neoliberal coalition of poor whites and minorities and struggling middle class voters -- will power the Democratic Party in the South and elsewhere. Suburban voters in Atlanta is easily part of the coalition.

Trump won NC by 3.7 and Georgia by 5.1.

Also, GA-6 is full of affluent white voters, not the kind of voters you describe in your coalition. I still think the WWC is a long term Republican constituency. They've been primed to think all Democrats are domestic terrorists. Conversely, their anti-intellectual/anti-reality rhetoric is a turn-off to traditional college educated whites in places like GA-6.
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« Reply #1880 on: April 20, 2017, 10:18:12 am »
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Anyone who thinks MS will tip quietly into the Democratic column because of demographic change should consider the state's history as a majority-black state and what the NC GOP has done in response to a similar situation. It's not going to "be allowed" to happen.
More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

If MS goes Dem, it will do it.  It will be awhile though.
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« Reply #1881 on: April 20, 2017, 10:42:31 am »
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More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.
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« Reply #1882 on: April 20, 2017, 10:49:56 am »
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More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.

Sure Roll Eyes
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« Reply #1883 on: April 20, 2017, 10:55:06 am »
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The only reason those laws are even proposed is to suppress non-Republican votes. It serves to create the same outcome as gerrymandering does and that is to create built in electoral advantages.
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« Reply #1884 on: April 20, 2017, 11:11:31 am »
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More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.

Sure Roll Eyes

Pretty sure Democrats would pass a bill to fix that next time they in power.
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« Reply #1885 on: April 20, 2017, 11:15:06 am »
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More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.

Sure Roll Eyes

First, I strongly question CCES-based studies, honestly. Second, that paper has an incredibly poor identification strategy. Such a shoddy attempt at a DID research design should be laughed out of the room; they don't even consider endogeneity once, nor do they attempt to match propensities or engage in some sort of discontinuity design. I couldn't include such a poor paper in my dissertation if I wanted to!

The simple fact is: there was zero difference in minority turnout in NC where these rules were enacted versus areas with similar demographics were they weren't.
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« Reply #1886 on: April 20, 2017, 11:37:05 am »
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Trump won NC by 3.7 and Georgia by 5.1.

Also, GA-6 is full of affluent white voters, not the kind of voters you describe in your coalition. I still think the WWC is a long term Republican constituency. They've been primed to think all Democrats are domestic terrorists. Conversely, their anti-intellectual/anti-reality rhetoric is a turn-off to traditional college educated whites in places like GA-6.

this is a bit far out but I suggest that affluent voters in suburban areas are more turned off by the current GOP's socially ideologically conservative edge. I contend that these voters will shift to the Democratic Party in considerable measure (they are also becoming more diverse as well). But I think the GOP will adapt and win back these voters but for a decade or so, we can expect areas like GA - 06 to trend blue. I do not believe suburban voters, however, are a long term mainstay of the Democratic Party (like over 10-20 years).

As for the WWC, I am actually basing my theory that an economic situation shifts these voters. The Republican Party's failure to meaningfully address these WWC voters' economic situation will eventually come to a head (these guys have the worst economic situation, aside from poor minorities, and have seen considerable economic stagnation since the millenium; and we currently live under a fairly free trade, deregulated, and low tax regime). But that's neither here or there.

To circle back to this district, the New South, in the next decade, will probably see the powering of Democrats in these suburban districts, and helping the Democrats in statewide elections in NC/GA.

This is a bit of complex theory in that I am suggesting that the suburbanite districts are going to be Democratic over the next decade, then the white working class will join them at some point, and then as the parties shift to accomodate the reality.
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« Reply #1887 on: April 20, 2017, 12:10:55 pm »
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« Reply #1888 on: April 20, 2017, 08:40:27 pm »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.



Why is RI a toss up? I can guess explanations for most of the other choices here, but short of some mass migration of minorities from RI I doubt it will become a toss up in the 30s
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« Reply #1889 on: April 20, 2017, 08:53:39 pm »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.



Why is RI a toss up? I can guess explanations for most of the other choices here, but short of some mass migration of minorities from RI I doubt it will become a toss up in the 30s

Yeah... NH can't be Safe D and RI a tossup, while ME-AL is Safe R. What kind of demographics would achieve that?

WI can't be Safe R anytime soon.
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« Reply #1890 on: April 20, 2017, 09:16:44 pm »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.



Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.
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« Reply #1891 on: April 20, 2017, 11:04:23 pm »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.



Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.

There are few things that we can be certain of, but Mississippi not being a Democratic-leaning state in 13 years is one of them.  I kind of understand the argument for it being competitive in 2050 (even if I don't fully agree with it), but there is no way it is there in 2030.
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« Reply #1892 on: April 21, 2017, 03:34:37 am »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.



Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.

There are few things that we can be certain of, but Mississippi not being a Democratic-leaning state in 13 years is one of them.  I kind of understand the argument for it being competitive in 2050 (even if I don't fully agree with it), but there is no way it is there in 2030.

The thing that makes MS so precarious is that it is wholly dependent on white block voting to keep it Republican. If MS whites voted as Republican as they do in neighboring states, it would be a lean Democratic state. There is also the factor that the bulk of those White Republicans are concentrated in the age bracket 65 and above. By 2030, half of those people will be gone. That means that the White Vote is going to naturally trend downward for the GOP over the next several years as 90% GOP Seniors are replaced with 50-50 Millenials starting to vote more frequently.

So 2030 is not at all unreasonable for it to be tilt Dem state.
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« Reply #1893 on: April 21, 2017, 03:42:15 am »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.



Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.

I agree with this map's portrayal of the sunbelt. I disagree though with what it has happening in the North.

If the GOP recovers in Northern suburbs enough to make Illinois soften up, OH Safe and WI as Likely GOP, then PA is Likely GOP, MN is lean GOP, and IN is Safe GOP.


Underlying all of this is massive GOP margins in Northern rural counties. This spans the entirety of the region from ME to MN, and has been witnessed over multiple recent elections. If this comes to pass then baked into the coalition in these states is this massive rural support similar to what Trump got (or even more), augmented by higher support (higher than Romney even) in Northern Suburbs. That softens up New York to Likely Dem, NJ and CT to tilt Dem (especially if RI is tossup), Vermont to lean or Tilt Dem and of course that brings us to the 1,000 pound elephant in the room, New... Tongue
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« Reply #1894 on: April 21, 2017, 05:25:08 am »
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lmao!!! this thread has gone bad.

I know its controversial but I would advise against predicting state trends literally decades down the road.
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« Reply #1895 on: April 21, 2017, 11:53:49 am »

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/lawsuit-georgia-is-suppressing-ga-6-voters-with-registration-deadline

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A group of civil rights organizations sued Georgia on Thursday, accusing the state of violating federal voting rights law by requiring voters to register three months in advance of a federal runoff election. The lawsuit claims that the state’s policy will prevent “untold numbers of people from voting” in the state’s hotly contested runoff in June between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

The National Voter Registration Act bars states from cutting off voter registration for federal elections—including runoff elections—more than 30 days before the election takes place. Yet under Georgia’s three-month deadline for runoff elections, those who didn’t register before March 20 will be barred from participation this summer. The lawsuit, filed by the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, Asian Americans Advancing Justice,  and the Georgia chapter of the NAACP, is demanding the state allow voters to register until May 22.

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As the plaintiffs seek an emergency injunction of the registration cutoff, the office of Georgia’s Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) told the Atlanta Journal Constitution the lawsuit is a “completely political effort to attack Secretary Kemp” and promised, “We will fight it in court.”

This seems non-ambiguous. Runoffs are clearly defined as being applicable to the 30 days or less deadline requirement. I don't get why Georgia would even waste money on defending that.

Oh. Nevermind.
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« Reply #1896 on: April 21, 2017, 12:51:40 pm »
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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/lawsuit-georgia-is-suppressing-ga-6-voters-with-registration-deadline

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A group of civil rights organizations sued Georgia on Thursday, accusing the state of violating federal voting rights law by requiring voters to register three months in advance of a federal runoff election. The lawsuit claims that the state’s policy will prevent “untold numbers of people from voting” in the state’s hotly contested runoff in June between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

The National Voter Registration Act bars states from cutting off voter registration for federal elections—including runoff elections—more than 30 days before the election takes place. Yet under Georgia’s three-month deadline for runoff elections, those who didn’t register before March 20 will be barred from participation this summer. The lawsuit, filed by the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, Asian Americans Advancing Justice,  and the Georgia chapter of the NAACP, is demanding the state allow voters to register until May 22.

Quote
As the plaintiffs seek an emergency injunction of the registration cutoff, the office of Georgia’s Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) told the Atlanta Journal Constitution the lawsuit is a “completely political effort to attack Secretary Kemp” and promised, “We will fight it in court.”

This seems non-ambiguous. Runoffs are clearly defined as being applicable to the 30 days or less deadline requirement. I don't get why Georgia would even waste money on defending that.

Oh. Nevermind.

The argument which the state regularly makes is that a runoff is not a separate election but an "extension" of a general election. Bit of strained logic, but there you are.
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« Reply #1897 on: April 21, 2017, 01:16:51 pm »
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I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.



Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.

There are few things that we can be certain of, but Mississippi not being a Democratic-leaning state in 13 years is one of them.  I kind of understand the argument for it being competitive in 2050 (even if I don't fully agree with it), but there is no way it is there in 2030.

The thing that makes MS so precarious is that it is wholly dependent on white block voting to keep it Republican. If MS whites voted as Republican as they do in neighboring states, it would be a lean Democratic state. There is also the factor that the bulk of those White Republicans are concentrated in the age bracket 65 and above. By 2030, half of those people will be gone. That means that the White Vote is going to naturally trend downward for the GOP over the next several years as 90% GOP Seniors are replaced with 50-50 Millenials starting to vote more frequently.

So 2030 is not at all unreasonable for it to be tilt Dem state.

That might be true if MS white millennials were voting 50-50, but the NY Times demographics calculator said they voted 86 or 88% (I can't remember which) for Romney in 2012.  White millennials as a whole voted for Trump, so they of course voted overwhelmingly for Trump in Mississippi of all places.  If it ever goes Democratic (apart from in a landslide), it will simply be because the black vote outvoted the white vote, which doesn't seem to be that close to happening yet, considering the 2016 results.  There is no NOVA or Atlanta that could anchor Mississippi to a rapid trend like Virginia and, possibly, Georgia.
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« Reply #1898 on: April 21, 2017, 01:45:53 pm »
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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/lawsuit-georgia-is-suppressing-ga-6-voters-with-registration-deadline

Quote
A group of civil rights organizations sued Georgia on Thursday, accusing the state of violating federal voting rights law by requiring voters to register three months in advance of a federal runoff election. The lawsuit claims that the state’s policy will prevent “untold numbers of people from voting” in the state’s hotly contested runoff in June between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Karen Handel in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District.

The National Voter Registration Act bars states from cutting off voter registration for federal elections—including runoff elections—more than 30 days before the election takes place. Yet under Georgia’s three-month deadline for runoff elections, those who didn’t register before March 20 will be barred from participation this summer. The lawsuit, filed by the Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, Asian Americans Advancing Justice,  and the Georgia chapter of the NAACP, is demanding the state allow voters to register until May 22.

Quote
As the plaintiffs seek an emergency injunction of the registration cutoff, the office of Georgia’s Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) told the Atlanta Journal Constitution the lawsuit is a “completely political effort to attack Secretary Kemp” and promised, “We will fight it in court.”

This seems non-ambiguous. Runoffs are clearly defined as being applicable to the 30 days or less deadline requirement. I don't get why Georgia would even waste money on defending that.

Oh. Nevermind.

The argument which the state regularly makes is that a runoff is not a separate election but an "extension" of a general election. Bit of strained logic, but there you are.

I think the language is very clear.  The NVRA text says that registration is allowed up to 30 days before the date of the election, or less if a shorter period is specified by state law.  https://www.justice.gov/crt/title-42-public-health-and-welfare-chapter-20-elective-franchise-subchapter-i-h-national-voter#anchor_1973gg

The key is the definition of "election", which title 42 says is:

Quote
(1) the term "election" has the meaning stated in section 431(1) of title 2;

The numbers have changed over the years, and 2:431 is now 52:30101, which you can find at http://www.fec.gov/law/feca/feca52.pdf and says (emphasis mine):

Quote
§30101. Definitions
When used in this Act:
(1) The term "election" means—
(A) a general, special, primary, or runoff election;
(B) a convention or caucus of a political party which has authority to nominate a candidate;
(C) a primary election held for the selection of delegates to a national nominating convention of
a political party; and
(D) a primary election held for the expression of a preference for the nomination of individuals
for election to the office of President.

I don't see how the state has a case that a runoff isn't a separate election.
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« Reply #1899 on: April 21, 2017, 03:28:50 pm »
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On Mississippi on the map above, the state is both the poorest and most rural state in the Deep South, and the white voters could be demographically similar to West Virginia than surrounding states, so the Dem trend (if one happens) would be much slower than surrounding states.
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