GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[BuckeyeNut]

Well, we're not winning in Montana now, so here's to Handel hopefully pissing away the seat.

[Figueira]

Well, we're not winning in Montana now, so here's to Handel hopefully pissing away the seat.

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana, but then again, if that happens, it is now easier to blame it on Quist's flaws as a candidate (and Handel's flaws) than just "Muh Panera Bread."

I don't think Quist is totally done though.

[OneJ]

P.S. This is the kind of trash that makes me never want to vote for Republicans.

Then why isn't your avatar red (Democratic)?

Because I'm not a Democrat? I'll register if and when I feel it's right. I hold out hope that the Republican party will go back to a better time, but it's minuscule at this point.

However, if you don't find something like that ad as absolutely disgusting and reprehensible, then I don't know what to think.

Thanks for answering! I was asking why don't you identify as a Democrat not because of your condemnation of the ad (I find it disgusting too), but because you said you never want to vote for Republicans. I think it's strange when people insist that they are truly independent. yet way closer to one side than the other (but that's just me). Honestly, going forward, even if polarization "thaws," I think that Rockefeller Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats have next to no (if any) future. No offense to any who are reading this.

That ad was terrible. I wasn't asking/talking about it, but I'll make these statements so nobody thinks that I find it okay. The parties have changed a lot over the last 150 years, and nobody from that time is still alive today. Therefore, I don't think it's fair at all to compare today's Republican and Democratic Parties to those from 1860.

The biggest problem with it is the fact that it implies that black votes are being "coerced" to vote Democratic and aren't voting Democratic because they support the Democratic Party's positions. It's incredibly racist. Not to mention the text above is racist in...many different ways.

Anyway, I'm not sure if this will have an effect, but it does kind of show what a terrible candidate Handel is, even though this is her husband, not her.

Spot-on reply!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana

Democrats always troubled by what they were/are/becoming.

[MT Treasurer]

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana

Democrats always troubled by what they were/are/becoming.

I don't necessarily disagree, but Quist could have won this race without breaking a sweat had he actually run a good campaign. In fact, Republicans should be glad that (a) he turned out to be a poor candidate and (b) that Gianforte has run a decent campaign. But like Figueira said, the race certainly isn't over yet, and I'd still rate it Tossup/Tilt R given the high floor Quist has.

My point about internal polls not always being wrong stands. Ossoff at 48% and Handel at 47% isn't implausible, especially if the undecideds are Republican-leaning Independents. Like Bacon and Castro said, I'm sure this was released to motivate Ossoff supporters and donors and not get complacent.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana

Democrats always troubled by what they were/are/becoming.

I don't necessarily disagree, but Quist could have won this race without breaking a sweat had he actually run a good campaign. In fact, Republicans should be glad that (a) he turned out to be a poor candidate and (b) that Gianforte has run a decent campaign. But like Figueira said, the race certainly isn't over yet, and I'd still rate it Tossup/Tilt R given the high floor Quist has.

My point about internal polls not always being wrong stands. Ossoff at 48% and Handel at 47% isn't implausible, especially if the undecideds are Republican-leaning Independents. Like Bacon and Castro said, I'm sure this was released to motivate Ossoff supporters and donors and not get complacent.

Even Gravis gets it right sometimes. So "not always being wrong" is not some sort of high status. And you can spin that result any way you want. Sure, it's good news (for dems) because it shows a close race. But it's bad news because it was a poll that Ossoff had full control over to suppress or manipulate the methodology of in any way he chose, and all he could get was a tie.

[The Other Castro]

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana

Democrats always troubled by what they were/are/becoming.

I don't necessarily disagree, but Quist could have won this race without breaking a sweat had he actually run a good campaign. In fact, Republicans should be glad that (a) he turned out to be a poor candidate and (b) that Gianforte has run a decent campaign. But like Figueira said, the race certainly isn't over yet, and I'd still rate it Tossup/Tilt R given the high floor Quist has.

My point about internal polls not always being wrong stands. Ossoff at 48% and Handel at 47% isn't implausible, especially if the undecideds are Republican-leaning Independents. Like Bacon and Castro said, I'm sure this was released to motivate Ossoff supporters and donors and not get complacent.

Even Gravis gets it right sometimes. So "not always being wrong" is not some sort of high status. And you can spin that result any way you want. Sure, it's good news (for dems) because it shows a close race. But it's bad news because it was a poll that Ossoff had full control over to suppress or manipulate the methodology of in any way he chose, and all he could get was a tie.

See Bacon's post again and mine about the DCCC. Gravis may get it right sometimes because crappy pollsters do get it right sometimes, while internal polls do get it right sometimes because the optimal numbers that provide the greatest message to supporters for turnout and fundraising can often line up with reality. And that's the private polling that was released for that purpose, while internal polling by campaigns used for gauging support level can be very accurate, as seen in Obama 2012. The only thing this poll means is that Ossoff's campaign wanted a D+1 poll out there.

[The Other Castro]

Also, CNN has picked up the Handel husband slavery story:

"GOP candidate's husband shares image urging voters to 'free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation'"

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Apparently, Handel's going to free the black slaves from the Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

The husband of Republican congressional candidate Karen Handel shared an image on his Twitter timeline Tuesday that urged voters to support his wife in order to "free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation."

....

Dear lord. This is... something else.

Dinesh D'Souza has been making that analogy for years now, and it played a prominent role in Hillary's America.  It's nothing new at all.

[Gass3268]

Apparently, Handel's going to free the black slaves from the Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

The husband of Republican congressional candidate Karen Handel shared an image on his Twitter timeline Tuesday that urged voters to support his wife in order to "free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation."

....

Dear lord. This is... something else.

Dinesh D'Souza has been making that analogy for years now, and it played a prominent role in Hillary's America.  It's nothing new at all.

Which is one reason D'Souza is universally viewed as ignorant joke. It's nothing new at all.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Dinesh D'Souza has been making that analogy for years now, and it played a prominent role in Hillary's America.  It's nothing new at all.

mister d'souza was in jail and couldn't be elected as dogcatcher.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Well, we're not winning in Montana now, so here's to Handel hopefully pissing away the seat.

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana, but then again, if that happens, it is now easier to blame it on Quist's flaws as a candidate (and Handel's flaws) than just "Muh Panera Bread."

I don't think Quist is totally done though.

I like the optics of successfully electing a liberal in a right-wing southern house district just fine

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff seeking to appeal to Republican voters: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrat-ossoff-hunts-for-republican-votes-6th-district-runoff/Thf08C6tvcKnyj04v5rvVK/

[Mr. Smith]

Ossoff seeking to appeal to Republican voters: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrat-ossoff-hunts-for-republican-votes-6th-district-runoff/Thf08C6tvcKnyj04v5rvVK/

RIP Ossoff.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ossoff seeking to appeal to Republican voters: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrat-ossoff-hunts-for-republican-votes-6th-district-runoff/Thf08C6tvcKnyj04v5rvVK/

RIP Ossoff.

But he has been trying that already he constantly talks about cutting gov't waste in his ads

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff seeking to appeal to Republican voters: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrat-ossoff-hunts-for-republican-votes-6th-district-runoff/Thf08C6tvcKnyj04v5rvVK/

RIP Ossoff.

But he has been trying that already he constantly talks about cutting gov't waste in his ads

Yeah, this is good. If he becomes elected and maintains this persona, he could become entrenched. Politicians that are entrenched usually make an effort to genuinely reach out to voters from both parties and secures the seat.

Also, if this healthcare fiasco blows up as it will, his chances of winning skyrocket.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff has consistently been running to the center, trying to position himself as someone who will work with all sides in Washington.  IMO this is a good strategy for a Democrat in this district.

[DrScholl]

It's probably safe to say that he already won a number of Republicans in the primary. He can't win the race without some Republican votes.

[Holmes]

Well Republicans got 51% or so of the combined vote in the primary, so assuming turnout is the same, he needs to pick up votes somewhere.

[Adam Griffin]

Well Republicans got 51% or so of the combined vote in the primary, so assuming turnout is the same, he needs to pick up votes somewhere.

A fairly decent amount, perhaps. My turnout map by precinct shows that Democratic precincts pretty substantially undervoted GOP precincts as a share of their 2016 turnout, yet the D/R margin was identical to 2016.

It's also possible that the above-normal turnout of first-time and unlikely voters disproportionately came from GOP precincts, but that doesn't necessarily make sense on the surface to me.

Considering this, there is theoretically more potential Democratic vote (as a share of 2016 voters)  that didn't vote in April than Republican vote that could be tapped for the run-off. Whether it's actually feasible to get them out (probably not, given both the strategy being pursued and the default dynamic wrt Dems in specials) is another question.

[Confused Democrat]

The House's passage of Trumpcare is probably going to provide a much needed boost to Ossoff's campaign and might even push him over the edge to win the runoff.

[Nhoj]

The House's passage of Trumpcare is probably going to provide a much needed boost to Ossoff's campaign and might even push him over the edge to win the runoff.

Seeing as this district repeatedly voted for tom price Im not so certain.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The House's passage of Trumpcare is probably going to provide a much needed boost to Ossoff's campaign and might even push him over the edge to win the runoff.

Seeing as this district repeatedly voted for tom price Im not so certain.

Most people in district still don't know who Tom Price is.

[Figueira]

The House's passage of Trumpcare is probably going to provide a much needed boost to Ossoff's campaign and might even push him over the edge to win the runoff.

Seeing as this district repeatedly voted for tom price Im not so certain.

They probably voted for him because of the R next to his name, not because they loved all of his policies.

[Barnes]

A federal judge has ordered that voter registration be reopened until May 21.