GA-6 Special election discussion thread
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2125 on: May 16, 2017, 07:16:32 PM »
From Eric Erickson:

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2126 on: May 16, 2017, 07:53:19 PM »
4/52 precincts in:

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)          55.12%   5,164
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)   44.88%   4,205
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2127 on: May 16, 2017, 08:25:23 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2017, 08:27:19 PM by Castro »
In the SD 32 race, Fulton County has completely reported, so just Cobb is remaining.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)           55.43%   7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)    44.57%   6,368
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2128 on: May 16, 2017, 08:27:17 PM »
Quote from: Castro on May 16, 2017, 08:25:23 PM
In the SD 32 race, Cobb County has completely reported, so just Fulton is remaining.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)           55.43%   7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)    44.57%   6,368




Yeah, don't think this is going anywhere. What was the last margin here?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2129 on: May 16, 2017, 08:28:03 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2017, 08:50:53 PM by Castro »
Edited previous post, Fulton is complete, Cobb is only partially complete.

Quote from: Arch on May 16, 2017, 08:27:17 PM
Yeah, don't think this is going anywhere. What was the last margin here?

For Presidential, Trump +13. Judson Hill has been unopposed the past few times he ran, so no reference point there.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2130 on: May 16, 2017, 08:41:00 PM »
Yeah, it's essentially done. I just am going to be looking at the margins.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2131 on: May 16, 2017, 08:48:01 PM »
5 precincts left in Cobb:

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)          56.81%   17,742
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)   43.19%   13,491
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Holmes
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« Reply #2132 on: May 16, 2017, 09:03:14 PM »
« Edited: May 16, 2017, 09:09:31 PM by Holmes »
It's an improvement over the 60% the Republicans got in the jungle. Bodes well for Ossoff. All the shenanigans going on in Washington should also help Ossoff too. Still toss up, but tilt Ossoff now maybe?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2133 on: May 16, 2017, 09:06:56 PM »
3 precincts to go:

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         56.98%   18,602
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  43.02%   14,046

The margin in this district is almost identical to Trump's margin.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2134 on: May 16, 2017, 09:09:26 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griffin on May 16, 2017, 09:06:56 PM
3 precincts to go:

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         56.98%   18,602
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  43.02%   14,046

The margin in this district is almost identical to Trump's margin.

Apparently it's done now, and it maintains the same results.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2135 on: May 16, 2017, 09:20:48 PM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on May 16, 2017, 09:09:26 PM
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griffin on May 16, 2017, 09:06:56 PM
3 precincts to go:

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)         56.98%   18,602
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)  43.02%   14,046

The margin in this district is almost identical to Trump's margin.

Apparently it's done now, and it maintains the same results.

Appears so.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2136 on: May 16, 2017, 10:02:01 PM »
Grey = partial precincts; many had huge swings that painted an inaccurate picture, so I just colored them grey instead.
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Pericles
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« Reply #2137 on: May 17, 2017, 04:01:42 AM »
I think this will probably go to Ossoff.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2138 on: May 17, 2017, 10:50:50 AM »
it's so silly that we still have different runoff rules for state and federal races
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #2139 on: May 17, 2017, 02:46:32 PM »
Quote from: Bacon! 🔥 on May 17, 2017, 10:50:50 AM
it's so silly that we still have different runoff rules for state and federal races

What are the differences?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2140 on: May 17, 2017, 09:02:57 PM »
"operatives from both parties now consider the Democratic candidate a favorite to pull off what pundits would have considered in January a monumental upset."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article151135317.html
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« Reply #2141 on: May 17, 2017, 09:29:00 PM »
Still pure tossup, if it were held today Ossoff would win, but it'll be tossup on the 20th.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2142 on: May 18, 2017, 02:10:25 AM »
Quote from: Not_Madigan on May 17, 2017, 09:29:00 PM
Still pure tossup, if it were held today Ossoff would win, but it'll be tossup on the 20th.

Who knows? Early voting starts soon. It skews Democratic but those are still votes in the bank at a time where maybe Republican enthusiasm is low, and they can't afford to lose any votes here.
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windjammer
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« Reply #2143 on: May 18, 2017, 04:24:44 AM »
Updating my prediction:
Ossoff 53-47
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2144 on: May 18, 2017, 07:10:39 AM »
Someone on the ground may be able to answer this but is Handel running a poor campaign?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2145 on: May 18, 2017, 07:24:48 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on May 18, 2017, 07:10:39 AM
Someone on the ground may be able to answer this but is Handel running a poor campaign?

So far both campaigns seem to be quieter than they were before the first round.  I expect this to change as the runoff gets closer.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2146 on: May 18, 2017, 08:52:02 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on May 18, 2017, 07:10:39 AM
Someone on the ground may be able to answer this but is Handel running a poor campaign?

I don't think this environment enables a Republican to run an effective campaign. Either she stakes out an unpopular position on what her colleagues are doing in Washington or she can't talk about anything. She's doomed either way. This is what I saw with Dems running for Congress over the last several years.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2147 on: May 18, 2017, 09:16:34 AM »
Quote from: Not_Madigan on May 17, 2017, 09:29:00 PM
Still pure tossup, if it were held today Ossoff would win, but it'll be tossup on the 20th.

Unfortunately I have to agree with this.

But I think the time span between the first round and the runoff on June 20 is too long.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #2148 on: May 18, 2017, 12:54:38 PM »
"DNC to hire 10 new staffers to boost Ossoff’s campaign"

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/18/georgia-6th-dnc-to-hire-10-new-staffers-to-boost-ossoffs-campaign/
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2149 on: May 18, 2017, 01:14:10 PM »
Updating my prediction to 54-46 for Handel.
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