GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Matty]

I find it somewhat odd that such a wealthy district like this has such an unfavorable view of the health act.

Polls a few years ago found the strongest opposition to the aca in suburban districts.

Maybe this suburb isn't as fiscally conservative as it first appeared

[The Other Castro]

Just saying though, while this poll is a good sign, it is very unlikely to be close to the final result. Democratic internals that I know of have it closer to dead even.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not to get ahead of myself but if Ossoff manages to pull this off plus win again in 2018, do you see him as a viable Senate candidate in 2020. I feel like he could do terrific in a statewide race. He will have significant name ID in the state if he manages to defeat Handel.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not to get ahead of myself but if Ossoff manages to pull this off plus win again in 2018, do you see him as a viable Senate candidate in 2020. I feel like he could do terrific in a statewide race. He will have significant name ID in the state if he manages to defeat Handel.

This is certainly speculative, but if it does happen I'm inclined to think he would be better off serving a few terms in the House before running for the Senate.  He needs to establish a record, and he's very young.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just saying though, while this poll is a good sign, it is very unlikely to be close to the final result. Democratic internals that I know of have it closer to dead even.

With Ossoff ahead?

[Gass3268]

I find it somewhat odd that such a wealthy district like this has such an unfavorable view of the health act.

Polls a few years ago found the strongest opposition to the aca in suburban districts.

Maybe this suburb isn't as fiscally conservative as it first appeared

ACHA is much more unpopular all across the country.

[Holmes]

I find it somewhat odd that such a wealthy district like this has such an unfavorable view of the health act.

Polls a few years ago found the strongest opposition to the aca in suburban districts.

Maybe this suburb isn't as fiscally conservative as it first appeared

Could be the country is developing groupthink against the bill, regardless of income level.

[Adam Griffin]

Ossoff's hitting 50-51% in polls now - that's good - but always beware the "undecideds" in Georgia. When you consider how they usually break and the simple margins of error in polling, I'm very skeptical that this is even a 3-5 point race right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crosstabs for the AJC poll (68 pages!): http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-6th-district-poll-crosstabs/dNc8JjOS3M8rQHgagKbfGP/

[RogueBeaver]

Wasserman: still a tossup, maybe tiny Ossoff lead.

[Gass3268]

Wasserman: still a tossup, maybe tiny Ossoff lead.

Essentially if he had a label that was between Toss Up and Lean D it would be placed there, which I think is accurate.

[TheSaint250]

Wasserman: still a tossup, maybe tiny Ossoff lead.

Essentially if he had a label that was between Toss Up and Lean D it would be placed there, which I think is accurate.

So tilt D?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wasserman: still a tossup, maybe tiny Ossoff lead.

Essentially if he had a label that was between Toss Up and Lean D it would be placed there, which I think is accurate.

So tilt D?

A tossup with perhaps a tiny lead for one candidate is pretty much the definition of "Tilt".

[TheSaint250]

Wasserman: still a tossup, maybe tiny Ossoff lead.

Essentially if he had a label that was between Toss Up and Lean D it would be placed there, which I think is accurate.

So tilt D?

A tossup with perhaps a tiny lead for one candidate is pretty much the definition of "Tilt".

Yup.  I think Ossoff has a slight advantage that might be in between tossup and tilt (if you can go that small) due to the Comey thing

[Skill and Chance]

I find it somewhat odd that such a wealthy district like this has such an unfavorable view of the health act.

Polls a few years ago found the strongest opposition to the aca in suburban districts.

Maybe this suburb isn't as fiscally conservative as it first appeared

It's more that we are entering an era where people have become unusually willing to vote against their own (short-term?) economic interests.  Look at the UK election last night.  In US terms, some of those parliamentary seats the Tories just lost were the equivalent of The Woodlands, TX voting Bernie Sanders for president!  For as long as Trump remains president, why couldn't the wealthiest parts of Atlanta start voting like Atherton, CA already did last year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump records robocall attacking Ossoff as a “tax-raising pro-illegal immigration Democrat” : http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/trump-robocall-slams-tax-raising-ossoff-in-georgia-6th-race/

Trump's approval rating in the district is 33%, according to the recent AJC poll.  This is supposed to help Handel?

[The Other Castro]

Crosstabs for the AJC poll (68 pages!): http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-6th-district-poll-crosstabs/dNc8JjOS3M8rQHgagKbfGP/

Found in these cross tabs:

54% of likely voters have been contacted in-person by Ossoff camp; only 25% contacted in-person by Handel camp

[GeorgiaModerate]

I agree that the indications have been looking good for Ossoff, but be careful about going too far based on a very small sample of polls.  A cautionary note about the most recent one:

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[windjammer]

Wow. I am considering moving this to Likely D, but this pollster was also too Democratic-friendly in 2016.

That being said, I'm pretty sure Ossoff has this. I wouldn't say it's all about Trump, but the Democrats' campaign organization and ground game here has been pretty strong. This is another sign of wealthy, educated suburbs (and GA in general, of course) moving to the Democrats, whether RINO Tom likes it or not. Pretty sure GA-SEN 2022 will be Lean/Likely D at this rate, even if a Democrat is president.

Depends whether Trump is reelected or not.

But yes, demcrats would be fooled not to contest the senate seats in 2020 and 2022

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If Trump's approval here is only ~33% and this remains about the same in 2018 and is relatively distributed across the country, the midterms will be a blood bath for the Republicans.

Stunning that Trump is only at 33% in a district that voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Trump's deep unpopularity could cause a tsunami the nasty Republican gerrymanders could not have predicted in these wealthy suburbs. Places like suburban Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston will be big pickup opportunities in 2018.

[Skill and Chance]

If Trump's approval here is only ~33% and this remains about the same in 2018 and is relatively distributed across the country, the midterms will be a blood bath for the Republicans.

Stunning that Trump is only at 33% in a district that voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Trump's deep unpopularity could cause a tsunami the nasty Republican gerrymanders could not have predicted in these wealthy suburbs. Places like suburban Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston will be big pickup opportunities in 2018.

I don't believe in uniform swings, and it's conceivable to me that Trump has fallen more in a district like this one than he would have fallen in a seat like, say, IA-4.

What is interesting is how fast things appear to be moving in GA.  Historically it would take another 10-20 years for a congressional district that went from a landslide to a statistical tie at the presidential level to be statistically tied or won by the opposition party at the congressional level.  Now, it's happening in less than a year.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Trump's approval here is only ~33% and this remains about the same in 2018 and is relatively distributed across the country, the midterms will be a blood bath for the Republicans.

Stunning that Trump is only at 33% in a district that voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Trump's deep unpopularity could cause a tsunami the nasty Republican gerrymanders could not have predicted in these wealthy suburbs. Places like suburban Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston will be big pickup opportunities in 2018.

I don't believe in uniform swings, and it's conceivable to me that Trump has fallen more in a district like this one than he would have fallen in a seat like, say, IA-4.

What is interesting is how fast things appear to be moving in GA.  Historically it would take another 10-20 years for a congressional district that went from a landslide to a statistical tie at the presidential level to be statistically tied or won by the opposition party at the congressional level.  Now, it's happening in less than a year.

As I've said before, a lot of votes for Price last november were to place a check on Clinton, who everyone assumed would be elected President. With Trump that factor is gone.

[Ridge]

Whichever party wins this will be drowning in monetary contributions by that Thursday.

[Adam Griffin]

I love how in that robocall, Trump did what he does when he reads anything (teleprompters, paper scripts, etc) for the first time: injects his own commentary mid-sentence to reaffirm.

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Then what follows:

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Do they realize what district this is?

[Skill and Chance]

If Trump's approval here is only ~33% and this remains about the same in 2018 and is relatively distributed across the country, the midterms will be a blood bath for the Republicans.

Stunning that Trump is only at 33% in a district that voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Trump's deep unpopularity could cause a tsunami the nasty Republican gerrymanders could not have predicted in these wealthy suburbs. Places like suburban Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, and Houston will be big pickup opportunities in 2018.

I don't believe in uniform swings, and it's conceivable to me that Trump has fallen more in a district like this one than he would have fallen in a seat like, say, IA-4.

What is interesting is how fast things appear to be moving in GA.  Historically it would take another 10-20 years for a congressional district that went from a landslide to a statistical tie at the presidential level to be statistically tied or won by the opposition party at the congressional level.  Now, it's happening in less than a year.

As I've said before, a lot of votes for Price last november were to place a check on Clinton, who everyone assumed would be elected President. With Trump that factor is gone.

If that holds, I could see even places like GA-07, VA-07, TX-03 and TX-02 where Trump barely cleared 50-52% being competitive by 2020.