GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also she makes the same mistakes Hillary did that by not countering your opponents message with your own message but by saying how awful your oppoent is this like Hillary did with Trump Handel is allowing Ossoff to dominate the race

[NewYorkExpress]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Atlanta Journal Constitution poll of 745 likely voters shows Ossoff up 51-44.

This one's over.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump records robocall attacking Ossoff as a “tax-raising pro-illegal immigration Democrat” : http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/trump-robocall-slams-tax-raising-ossoff-in-georgia-6th-race/

Trump's approval rating in the district is 33%, according to the recent AJC poll.  This is supposed to help Handel?

This is the stupidest thing I think Handel could have done, moreso than the liveable wage moment. His disapproval here is probably roughly in line with the country's, if not worse (I don't believe 33% though).

She really is the Martha Coakley of the South

Yeah, that was pretty worthless, to say the least. She probably wants to rally her base, but a) this might alienate the kind of voters that she needs and b) This is not a "Make America Great Again"-type district.

Some people think it is a #MAGA district though: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/09/georgia-special-election-trump-239372

[Skill and Chance]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Atlanta Journal Constitution poll of 745 likely voters shows Ossoff up 51-44.

This one's over.

If a Democrat is winning this district by 7, they would easily be winning statewide.  GA-GOV could be a surprise marquee race next year.

[_]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Atlanta Journal Constitution poll of 745 likely voters shows Ossoff up 51-44.

This one's over.

Ossoff +26 on women compared to Handel +9 on men

Kind of doubt he has that margin

Also harping back to the other poll that had him up 7, the SurveyUSA poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

It says Ossoff's winning men by 9 and women by 6.

Once again doubting.

[Confused Democrat]

This one's over.

Please don't say things like this. Have we not learned our lesson from 2016?

[Skill and Chance]

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/09/ajc-poll-ossoff-opens-lead-over-handel-in-georgias-6th/

Atlanta Journal Constitution poll of 745 likely voters shows Ossoff up 51-44.

This one's over.

If a Democrat is winning this district by 7, they would easily be winning statewide.  GA-GOV could be a surprise marquee race next year.

No, they would not be "easily" winning statewide. You can't assume a uniform swing like in this district to other more inelastic districts in the state. To win statewide, Dems would probably need to win GA-6 and GA-7 by at least mid-single digits and get Obama level turnout in the black belt.

They would only need to net half their swing in this seat statewide .  That's very doable.

[NewYorkExpress]

This one's over.

Please don't say things like this. Have we not learned our lesson from 2016?

Please, two weeks before the election Hillary didn't have a seven point lead, and she definitely wasn't leading in Georgia.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This one's over.

Please don't say things like this. Have we not learned our lesson from 2016?

Please, two weeks before the election Hillary didn't have a seven point lead, and she definitely wasn't leading in Georgia.

We're just talking about one poll from a random pollster in a special election in a congressional district here.

[_]

This one's over.

Please don't say things like this. Have we not learned our lesson from 2016?

Please, two weeks before the election Hillary didn't have a seven point lead, and she definitely wasn't leading in Georgia.

We're just talking about one poll from a random pollster in a special election in a congressional district here.

That has an MOE of 4, and also has Ossoff with a 26 point lead on women, which is doubtful.

[DrScholl]

There are two polls this week showing Ossoff leading, one of which had Handel leading right after the primary. Ossoff is likely to win at this point.

[Xing]

Ossoff is probably favored, but no one should be saying that he has it in the bag. House polls really aren't that reliable.

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff is probably favored, but no one should be saying that he has it in the bag. House polls really aren't that reliable.

This. People haven't learned from 2016.

[_]

Ossoff is probably favored, but no one should be saying that he has it in the bag. House polls really aren't that reliable.

Most likely narrowly favored atm, but by no means is he 7 points ahead, its probably more like a 1-2 point lead atm with a number of undecideds, though they are likely a small number.

[Adam Griffin]

I can understand to some extent why they'd use a robocall from Trump. In some respects, the campaign to win hearts and minds is already over: once early voting begins, you're trying to get out your solid supporters and hardcore partisans rather than persuade fence-sitters.

The problem here is that this isn't your standard 50-50 district: the only reason Ossoff is even within striking distance is because he's winning a sizable segment of voters who'd otherwise vote GOP. For Handel's sake, let's just hope they know which 10-20% of "Republicans" to whom they shouldn't be sending this.

[Technocracy Timmy]

What would be the fallout of the Democrats losing this race? It seems like it would have short term implications for fundraising, but anything else?

[_]

What would be the fallout of the Democrats losing this race? It seems like it would have short term implications for fundraising, but anything else?

Minor enthusiasm dropoff probably.  The "Oh we lost all these we'll never win anything" crowd would give up.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What would be the fallout of the Democrats losing this race? It seems like it would have short term implications for fundraising, but anything else?

Unless Parnell somehow wins SC-5, it would greatly depress progressive activists who are desperate for any weakening in Trump's power, and create a message that Dems can't win outside of places like CA-34. Also, I don't really see the Dems getting the house in '18 if this seat stays R, and picking it up in '18 will be much harder than doing it now due to incumbency.

[Heisenberg]

What would be the fallout of the Democrats losing this race? It seems like it would have short term implications for fundraising, but anything else?

Unless Parnell somehow wins SC-5, it would greatly depress progressive activists who are desperate for any weakening in Trump's power, and create a message that Dems can't win outside of places like CA-34. Also, I don't really see the Dems getting the house in '18 if this seat stays R, and picking it up in '18 will be much harder than doing it now due to incumbency.

I agree that it really hurts Dems' chances at taking he House, but I think there's still a path in 2018, unfortunately (for me as a Republican). If it's close, they can still spin it as narrowing the margin, and by 2018, Trump could go down more, and more infrastructure will have been built.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Thank you for the responses. This race seems pretty important when it comes to winning over wealthier suburban republican Romney districts that are not pro-Trump (given their Party lean).

Which is why I'm following it closely given that my district is quite similar in those regards.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I promised to eat a bug if Ossoff breaks 49%.

I'm really worried I might have to eat a bug.

[RogueBeaver]

Ossoff says if he loses, he'll consult with his fiancee whether or not to run again in the regular election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Early vote through yesterday:

Cobb 13199 (15.8%)
DeKalb 20622 (24.7%)
Fulton 49581 (59.4%)
Total 83402

The trend over the last few days is Cobb's share declining, Fulton's increasing, and DeKalb holding its own.  Today may be interesting; all three counties have Saturday voting.  Only Fulton was open last Saturday.

[Hindsight was 2020]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Early vote through yesterday:

Cobb 13199 (15.8%)
DeKalb 20622 (24.7%)
Fulton 49581 (59.4%)
Total 83402

The trend over the last few days is Cobb's share declining, Fulton's increasing, and DeKalb holding its own.  Today may be interesting; all three counties have Saturday voting.  Only Fulton was open last Saturday.

Holy moly Cobb never fell this far behind in April

[Tender Branson]

Ossoff will win with at least 52% of the vote. Maybe as high as 54-55%.