GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The Other Castro]

What is considered winning here is a complicated question. In terms of getting a result indicative of flipping the house in 2018, Ossoff has already done that and will do that again in the runoff if he only loses by a couple of points or so. However, this has been hyped up so much now that the only way Dems can spin a win in the short term is if they actually win this election. It will be close, and as of right now Ossoff appears favored, but I do not believe by more than 2 points at most. Also, I don't think other Democrats would be doing as well as Ossoff, who has surprised me in how disciplined and professional he is as a first time candidate.

[Brittain33]

I find it somewhat odd that such a wealthy district like this has such an unfavorable view of the health act.

Polls a few years ago found the strongest opposition to the aca in suburban districts.

Maybe this suburb isn't as fiscally conservative as it first appeared

People don't like government making changes to healthcare, and the response to AHCA is going to be "what bad could the AHCA do," not a mirror image of opposition to ACA.

[Skill and Chance]

What is considered winning here is a complicated question. In terms of getting a result indicative of flipping the house in 2018, Ossoff has already done that and will do that again in the runoff if he only loses by a couple of points or so. However, this has been hyped up so much now that the only way Dems can spin a win in the short term is if they actually win this election. It will be close, and as of right now Ossoff appears favored, but I do not believe by more than 2 points at most. Also, I don't think other Democrats would be doing as well as Ossoff, who has surprised me in how disciplined and professional he is as a first time candidate.

If they don't win GA-06, they will need to take literally every single Romney->Clinton seat and keep all 4 of the Trump landslide seats they still hold, including the open MN-01.  That's a very tall order. 

[Skill and Chance]

What is considered winning here is a complicated question. In terms of getting a result indicative of flipping the house in 2018, Ossoff has already done that and will do that again in the runoff if he only loses by a couple of points or so. However, this has been hyped up so much now that the only way Dems can spin a win in the short term is if they actually win this election. It will be close, and as of right now Ossoff appears favored, but I do not believe by more than 2 points at most. Also, I don't think other Democrats would be doing as well as Ossoff, who has surprised me in how disciplined and professional he is as a first time candidate.

If they don't win GA-06, they will need to take literally every single Romney->Clinton seat and keep all 4 of the Trump landslide seats they still hold, including the open MN-01.  That's a very tall order. 

Or, you know, flip a few of the very marginal Trump seats, which is much more likely than flipping all 23 Clinton/R seats. MN-2, NE-2, FL-25, GA-7, PA-16, ME-2, IA-1, IA-3, IL-13, MI-8, MI-6, NJ-2, NJ-3, NJ-11, NY-1, NY-19, NY-23, NY-21, OH-1, VA-2, VA-5

Isn't GA-06 a test of the very marginal Trump seats?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Still calling this tilt R/Handel.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some thoughts from Nate Cohn on Twitter:

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[Hindsight was 2020]

So apparently Bikers for Trump are doing GOTV for Handel https://mobile.twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/873663431857106944

[Skill and Chance]

So apparently Bikers for Trump are doing GOTV for Handel https://mobile.twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/873663431857106944

More likely to harm than help in this CD.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Early vote through yesterday:

Cobb 13199 (15.8%)
DeKalb 20622 (24.7%)
Fulton 49581 (59.4%)
Total 83402

Through today:

Cobb 15283 (16.3%)
DeKalb 23334 (24.8%)
Fulton 55319 (58.9%)
Total 93936

Keep in mind that Cobb has fewer early voting locations during the runoff than the other two counties.

I've also heard rumors that (some of?) the counties have a big backlog of mail ballots that haven't yet been processed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It was likely at some point Cobb would pick some up but being in thrid will hurt Handel

[GeorgiaModerate]

It was likely at some point Cobb would pick some up but being in thrid will hurt Handel

Cobb will probably pick up from here.  They've had only one early location open; a second was opened today and will remain open.  DeKalb has had 5 locations for the whole period except last Saturday.  Fulton has 6 locations, all open for the whole period.

[_]

It was likely at some point Cobb would pick some up but being in thrid will hurt Handel

They've got 9 days to get to second and they only have 2 locations.  Voters who don't vote early will show up on EDay.  What matters is where all these votes in Fulton go.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good thread from Nate Cohn about the "no party" early vote: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/873938254793510912

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Good thread from Nate Cohn about the "no party" early vote: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/873938254793510912

I find it much more likely that new no party voters are turning out for Ossoff than Handel, based on the extent of their campaign outreach. If Cohn's analysis is correct, Ossoff might be in a prime position to actually win this. But I'd caution my fellow red avatars not to get cocky with your predictions. This is still Georgia after all.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good thread from Nate Cohn about the "no party" early vote: https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/873938254793510912

I find it much more likely that new no party voters are turning out for Ossoff's than Handel, based on the extent to their campaign outreach. If Cohn's analysis is correct, Ossoff might be in a prime position to actually win this. But I'd caution my fellow red avatars not to get cocky with your predictions. This is still Georgia after all.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538: Too close to call, but Ossoff has a slight edge: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-a-slight-edge-in-the-georgia-6/

[Hindsight was 2020]

A hint at also why Ossoff has an edge AHCA has horrible #'s in the 6th https://mobile.twitter.com/vgmac/status/874262190454435842

[Adam Griffin]

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[Brittain33]

Delta Air Lines pilots' union endorses Ossoff today. It represents 14,000 pilots; unclear how many live in GA-6 but surely a few.

[The Other Castro]

GA-6 Special Runoff EV (102,790) has just exceeded the 2014 GA-6 EV (99,042), with four whole days of early voting left.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Ossoff somehow manages to win, do you think that the chances are good that he will join the Blue Dog Coalition? I think he would at least consider it. Based on his platform and personality, he would fit in very well.

[Kamala]

If Ossoff somehow manages to win, do you think that the chances are good that he will join the Blue Dog Coalition? I think he would at least consider it. Based on his platform and personality, he would fit in very well.

He strikes me more as a New Democrat rather than a Blue Dog.

[DrScholl]

He's certainly more of a New Democrat than a Blue Dog, but there are New Democrats that also join the Blue Dogs. He probably will do both.

[Tender Branson]

New SurveyUSA poll:

47% Ossoff (-4)
47% Handel (+3)

http://www.11alive.com/news/politics/elections/ballot/race-to-replace-tom-price-handel-and-ossoff-tied-with-one-week-to-go/448120182

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ugh!!!!!!!!!!