GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Okay, can we please stop the #AtlasPanic? Just calm down and forget this race even exists until the 20th.

But I don't have a life. I have nothing else to do.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Okay, can we please stop the #AtlasPanic? Just calm down and forget this race even exists until the 20th.

But I don't have a life. I have nothing else to do.

Then please get a life.

Ok, I'll just watch some netflix and pirated episodes of prison break until the election.

[_]

Very narrow Tilt D atm

[This account no longer in use.]

I think Bagel wants Handel to win more than he actually thinks that she will win. Handel has been stuck at 47% in polling, while Ossoff has cracked 50% more than once. The concern trolls will say otherwise, but Ossoff is definitely in a better position than Handel.

I want Ossoff to win, I am a democrat. These polls are within the moe, and this thing is a virtual tie. Calling it for either Ossoff or Handel within a few points is sane. Any pure assurances or double digits should be taken within a pound of salt.

Mm-hmm. Okay.

Don't get too cocky, we democrats have been $&@?!slapped multiple times for it.

Karen Handel thanks you for your generous support.

Thank you for teaching us that we aren't allowed to show concern for a close race

[Gass3268]

Politico: GOP operatives say this race is trending away from Handel

Some highlights from article:

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[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Handal was tied too closely to Sarah Palin who haven't been seen, and she enthusiastically supported Trump and Handal.  No one should be surprised by this election result

[Hindsight was 2020]

New Fox/Alanta: Ossoff 49.7% vs Handel 49.4% https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875740251540553732

[Brittain33]

New Fox/Alanta: Ossoff 49.7% vs Handel 49.4% https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875740251540553732

A difference of 2 voters out of 537 respondents.

Early voters report 58% Ossoff - 42% Handel, which is enormous for Ossoff if true.

[Gass3268]

New Fox/Alanta: Ossoff 49.7% vs Handel 49.4% https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875740251540553732

A difference of 2 voters out of 537 respondents.

Early voters report 58% Ossoff - 42% Handel, which is enormous for Ossoff if true.

Well it's probably roughly accurate too looking at the early vote numbers. Ossoff got a huge number of Republicans and unaffiliateds in Round 1's early vote too

I'd imagine that close to 2/3rds of the unaffiliated voted for Ossoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Actually if you do a breakdown of that Fox poll Delalb seems to be underrepresented and the race breakdown heavier white then EV is so the fact Ossoff is still winning even by less than 1% is good

[GeorgiaModerate]

Actually if you do a breakdown of that Fox poll Delalb seems to be underrepresented and the race breakdown heavier white then EV is so the fact Ossoff is still winning even by less than 1% is good

Also, as others have pointed out, a range of results is normal; if one candidate is up by 2 or 3 points, you'd expect polls to show a range of results from tied or a small lead for the other candidate, up to a lead of several points for the candidate in front.  Poll results that are too close together are suspicious.

[Cactus Jack]

God help us all, it looks like one of those hideously-Photoshopped conspiracy theory banners I kept seeing about seven years ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of the amusing things about this race is the overenthusiasm of people placing Ossoff signs (they vastly outnumber Handel signs).  One busy intersection near my office started with one Ossoff sign and one Handel sign.  Then it went to 3 Ossoff signs, then 4, and today 5.  (There's still only one Handel sign.)  This isn't an isolated occurrence.  I've even seen some well outside the district boundary in Forsyth County.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

One of the amusing things about this race is the overenthusiasm of people placing Ossoff signs (they vastly outnumber Handel signs).  One busy intersection near my office started with one Ossoff sign and one Handel sign.  Then it went to 3 Ossoff signs, then 4, and today 5.  (There's still only one Handel sign.)  This isn't an isolated occurrence.  I've even seen some well outside the district boundary in Forsyth County.

Ughhhhh. I'd hate to be the field organizer here. People who think that lawn signs in public places do anything to persuade anyone are so frustrating.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

One of the amusing things about this race is the overenthusiasm of people placing Ossoff signs (they vastly outnumber Handel signs).  One busy intersection near my office started with one Ossoff sign and one Handel sign.  Then it went to 3 Ossoff signs, then 4, and today 5.  (There's still only one Handel sign.)  This isn't an isolated occurrence.  I've even seen some well outside the district boundary in Forsyth County.

Ughhhhh. I'd hate to be the field organizer here. People who think that lawn signs in public places do anything to persuade anyone are so frustrating.

While lawn signs are hardly some master strategy, they can help on the margins due to the natural human desire to conform to what everyone else appears to be doing.

[Matty]

How dumb does the vermont bum look for not embracing ossof's campaign?

Sorry bernard, but your brand of radical leftwing loonyism has come up empty everywhere, while Ossof's moderate economic, pro-business platform that embraces profits and innovation is about to win.

jfern can go pound sand, too

[Mr.Phips]

This mailer is the GOP's final salvo in GA-06. They have no policy agenda, just raw identity politics:

Lol, Rosie O'Donnell.

[DrScholl]

It's really to Ossoff's advantage that Sanders did not endorse him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's really to Ossoff's advantage that Sanders did not endorse him.

If he had, Sanders's picture would be in the poster above.

[Beet]

This mailer is the GOP's final salvo in GA-06. They have no policy agenda, just raw identity politics:

Lol, Rosie O'Donnell.

They are making the right move, tapping into Middle America's strong misogyny. If the GOP ran on that alone for the next few elections, they could win.

[Adam Griffin]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

Is this possibly Timber Ridge? Terrell Mill isn't in the CD according to SoS results, and neither is SS09A.

Precinct	GOP	DEM
Timber Ridge 01	781	536
Pleasantdale Road	165	682
ML05A	3	9

Here's a complete list of each precinct's results listed individually on the website (scroll to bottom):
Fulton
Dekalb
Cobb

[heatcharger]

I feel like the "Hollywood liberals" dog whistle has less weight here considering the growth of the Atlanta film industry.

[Cactus Jack]

How dumb does the vermont bum look for not embracing ossof's campaign?

Sorry bernard, but your brand of radical leftwing loonyism has come up empty everywhere, while Ossof's moderate economic, pro-business platform that embraces profits and innovation is about to win.

jfern can go pound sand, too

Are you feeling quite alright?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

Is this possibly Timber Ridge? Terrell Mill isn't in the CD according to SoS results, and neither is SS09A.

Precinct	GOP	DEM
Timber Ridge 01	781	536
Pleasantdale Road	165	682
ML05A	3	9

Here's a complete list of each precinct's results listed individually on the website (scroll to bottom):
Fulton
Dekalb
Cobb

Thanks!  There were some ballots showing up in the absentee file with TM01 and SS09A precincts, which is why I was wondering about those.