GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/876522974752493568

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://www.myajc.com/news/poll-ossoff-leads-handel-less-than-points/HxnEIXhLueEWLpCObXIAzL/

Ossoff is leading Handel by 2 points.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/876522974752493568

Hmm.  I interpreted that as saying that it's going to be another nail-biter.  But who knows.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

He's saying that Handel will do better in the early vote this time around, even if Ossoff wins.

That seems obvious.  There were so many Republican candidates in the first round that many of their voters probably waited until Election Day to make their final choice.

[Person Man]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

He's saying that Handel will do better in the early vote this time around, even if Ossoff wins.

That seems obvious.  There were so many Republican candidates in the first round that many of their voters probably waited until Election Day to make their final choice.

They still needed to vote to stop Ossoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

He's saying that Handel will do better in the early vote this time around, even if Ossoff wins.

That seems obvious.  There were so many Republican candidates in the first round that many of their voters probably waited until Election Day to make their final choice.

They still needed to vote to stop Ossoff.

Right.  But with only Handel opposing him this time, the GOP voters don't need to wait until Election Day, and many of them will vote early instead.  So Handel will do better in the early vote, but worse in E-Day vote. Compared to total R performance in the first round, that is.  She should still lose the early vote and win the E-Day vote.  If either of these is not true, the election will be a rout.

If these factors exactly cancel each other out, and there were no new voters, then obviously Handel will win, since R's got slightly more votes in round 1 (about 4,000 more).  All it would do would shift some of the R voters from Election Day to early voting.  However, there are already thousands of early votes in the runoff by people who did NOT vote in round 1.  If the round 1 voters all vote (and all vote for the same party) then clearly the new voters are the key.  If Ossoff carries them decisively, he wins; if not, he loses.

(Edited to add the bolded text)

[Badger]

Is this damn thing still going on?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is this damn thing still going on?

The polls close in 45 and a half hours.

[Badger]

Is this damn thing still going on?

The polls close in 45 and a half hours.

And not a minute too soon.

And I say that as an Unapologetic political Junkie.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I do wonder if Ossoff wins would any more big GOP names retire like Ros

[Holmes]

Is this damn thing still going on?

The polls close in 45 and a half hours.

And not a minute too soon.

And I say that as an Unapologetic political Junkie.

It's been a long runoff. There was no reason for it to be two months.

[Bacon King]

Is this damn thing still going on?

The polls close in 45 and a half hours.

And not a minute too soon.

And I say that as an Unapologetic political Junkie.

It's been a long runoff. There was no reason for it to be two months.

Until recently Georgia runoffs were only one month after the general election (and this is still the case for state elections)

The courts however ruled that such a small delay was illegal. Federal law says that states must send finalized election ballots to overseas military voters something like 6 or 7 weeks prior to any election to federal office, which is impossible to do when a runoff election is only a month after a general election.

Georgia kept dragging its feet until the courts gave up and told the state they were moving the date for Georgia's federal election runoffs (not state, because they weren't covered in the lawsuit). The state decided on a full two month runoff period because anything shorter would mean November runoffs would occur too close to Christmas.

Interestingly, all the other states with general election runoffs meet the Federal requirements by giving overseas military voters a sort of instant runoff ballot - they vote for their preferred candidate and then rank all the others. If their candidate is eliminated, their runoff vote goes to whichever remaining candidate they ranked higher. One can only assume that Georgia does it differently due to sheer incompetence.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump tweets for Handel:

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[Brittain33]

A Republican party chair thinks that Scalise's shooting will give Handel the edge in the race.

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[Rookie Yinzer]

^ What trash.

And I hate this "give him a chance" talking point. Not only was that not done with the previous president but why would he be given a chance when at no point since he has won has he tried to govern like he is president of all Americans. He has only doubled down on his extreme policies and shut all dissenting opinions out of conversation. So no, Trump's resistance will not give him a chance because he's made it clear he's not interested in any sort of compromise unless it is with other Republicans to dismantle Obama-era legislation.

[Brittain33]

^ What trash.

I'm concerned as a Dem that while his gloating is trashy, the core of it may be accurate, and this could make the difference for Handel.

[Person Man]

^ What trash.

I'm concerned as a Dem that while his gloating is trashy, the core of it may be accurate, and this could make the difference for Handel.

If this new negative game is effective, how can we counter this "stop the Democrats" message?

[TheSaint250]

^ What trash.

I'm concerned as a Dem that while his gloating is trashy, the core of it may be accurate, and this could make the difference for Handel.

I wouldn't read into it too much.  Many people (including me) thought that Jo Cox being shot would result in no Brexit (yes, i get that it's a different country and this is a GOP-leaning district)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Harry Enten did a poll breakdown an saw not effect from the shooting on GA06

[GeorgiaModerate]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

[Sir Mohamed]

The latest polls are very mixed at least. Toss-up at best.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

A Republican party chair thinks that Scalise's shooting will give Handel the edge in the race.

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This may end up being true, but it's important to note that especially in a district like this one, the shooting won't make voters want to give Trump a blank check, and many of those who did vote for him were voting against Hillary Clinton rather than for Donald Trump. Also, looking at acts of political violence over the last few years (the Giffords Shooting, the Charleston Church Massacre, the various attacks on Muslims by right-wing extremists or Trump supporters) none seems to have had a permanent effect on political discourse: it might be that because violence and mass shootings happen so often now that they've been normalized. The Alexandria shooting wasn't particularly notable because it happened: it was notable because of who the victims were.

[Person Man]

The latest polls are very mixed at least. Toss-up at best.

Ossoff's still ahead but can still lose if Democrats are really that toxic to the moat fence-sitting of voters. For example, I am guessing that undecideds broke 70% for Trump. Im guessing that if they split even, Hillary would have those 4 states that decided the election. If they broke the other way, she could have won Arizona and maybe North Carolina.

[Person Man]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

A Republican party chair thinks that Scalise's shooting will give Handel the edge in the race.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This may end up being true, but it's important to note that especially in a district like this one, the shooting won't make voters want to give Trump a blank check, and many of those who did vote for him were voting against Hillary Clinton rather than for Donald Trump. Also, looking at acts of political violence over the last few years (the Giffords Shooting, the Charleston Church Massacre, the various attacks on Muslims by right-wing extremists or Trump supporters) none seems to have had a permanent effect on political discourse: it might be that because violence and mass shootings happen so often now that they've been normalized. The Alexandria shooting wasn't particularly notable because it happened: it was notable because of who the victims were.

Or maybe people just expect boys to be boys now...

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Harry Enten:

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