GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Beet]

^ What trash.

And I hate this "give him a chance" talking point. Not only was that not done with the previous president but why would he be given a chance when at no point since he has won has he tried to govern like he is president of all Americans. He has only doubled down on his extreme policies and shut all dissenting opinions out of conversation. So no, Trump's resistance will not give him a chance because he's made it clear he's not interested in any sort of compromise unless it is with other Republicans to dismantle Obama-era legislation.

Yes, I wake up every day giving him a chance, and every day I am disappointed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

From Harry Enten:

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It really should be cause for optimism that while SE are hard to poll they were pretty accurate last time an if anything under polled Ossoff

[GeorgiaModerate]

For all science geeks fans:  https://xkcd.com/1852/

It makes as much sense as some of the other GA-6 analysis we've seen.

[Barnes]

For all science geeks fans:  https://xkcd.com/1852/

It makes as much sense as some of the other GA-6 analysis we've seen.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

For all science geeks fans:  https://xkcd.com/1852/

It makes as much sense as some of the other GA-6 analysis we've seen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ossoff will make a statement tomorrow that by winning, Dems will be able to net seats in ruby red states like GA and can win the House back in 2018, that Dems have failed in 2014 and 2016

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ossoff will make a statement tomorrow that by winning, Dems will be able to net seats in ruby red states like GA and can win the  back in 2018, that Dems have failed in 2014 and 2016

Thank you for your truly game-changing overanalysis of one special election. Also, there are no other competitive house seats in the state of Georgia - even the 7th and 12th are pipe dreams.

[Adam Griffin]

Ossoff will make a statement tomorrow that by winning, Dems will be able to net seats in ruby red states like GA and can win the  back in 2018, that Dems have failed in 2014 and 2016

Thank you for your truly game-changing overanalysis of one special election. Also, there are no other competitive house seats in the state of Georgia - even the 7th and 12th are pipe dreams.

The 1st was as competitive as the 12th in 2012: Obama got the exact same vote share in both. If anything, the 1st is now even more competitive than the 12th was simply because of the types of people who live there (disproportionately larger numbers of "moderates", for instance). I'm not sure where it ranks against the 7th, though.

[windjammer]

I think tomorrow I will not watch that online. I like political analysis, that's why I'm posting here. But no matter how close the result would be, there would be so massive overreaction to this poll, and that wll be pretty dull.

[Gass3268]

New poll has Handel +1%

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DKE thinks this is a fake poll.

[Person Man]

New poll has Handel +1%

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DKE thinks this is a fake poll.

Its based on "unskewed" Google Surveys.

The polling average is now that if Ossoff should win or at least be able to ask for a recount (-1 to 3) unless people are lying. I wonder if there is some Limbaughian altRight or hard-right scheme to conspire to lie to pollsters to throw the other side off.

[RogueBeaver]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

[Cactus Jack]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

[Dr. Arch]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

Going into the data, they only have Ossoff with a slight majority of the EV. I don't think that resonates at all with what we've seen in the district.

[MT Treasurer]

Ossoff has ran a great campaign and was a very good candidate. Regardless of how this race turns out or your political views you have to admit that.

No, he's a prop-up if he loses. A prop-up who ate money that could've gone to TWO districts that were competitive, one of which had a +20 edge against and moved left by 14!

A handsome looking one, but still a prop-up.

1.) Quist really was an uninspiring candidate who ran a pretty awful campaign. Ossoff is obviously a better candidate, and Handel's campaign strikes me as significantly worse-run than Gianforte's.
2.) Comparing the results of a special Cogressional election with the 2016 presidential results, especially in a state like Montana, is incredibly misleading.

[Beet]

It looks like the Scalise shooting will tip it to Handel. I'm revising my prediction from 50-50 to
51.5% Handel
48.5% Ossoff

[Skunk]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

They also had Trump +5 in Nevada.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

They also had Trump +5 in Nevada.

I think it just pollster trying to have it both ways.

[Person Man]

comparisons?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_2nd_congressional_district_special_election,_2005

[DrScholl]

It looks like the Scalise shooting will tip it to Handel. I'm revising my prediction from 50-50 to
51.5% Handel
48.5% Ossoff

Landmark polled after the shooting and found no change.

[Person Man]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

They also had Trump +5 in Nevada.

I think it just pollster trying to have it both ways.

They are an R group. I guess if look at those four states we are talking about, it gives us a house effect of R+2 but they were accurate.

If Handel runs away with it, it will be because of the shooting. I guess these things do change things. There was a lot of pro-life terrorism just before the pro-choice movement had a big bump and as the bump subsided, it motivated pro-life people again.

[Person Man]

comparisons?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_2nd_congressional_district_special_election,_2005

This race is a pure tossup and I haz no idea who will win. I think we're living in a time where pollsters can't poll accurately anymore and data stiffs like Cohn and Enten send out cryptic tweets to keep their careers intact

The dumbest and wisest thing today.

[Beet]

It looks like the Scalise shooting will tip it to Handel. I'm revising my prediction from 50-50 to
51.5% Handel
48.5% Ossoff

Landmark polled after the shooting and found no change.

But Ppolls has her in the lead, Trafalgar has her rising from behind to the lead, and another poll had her gaining. That's three polls that have her either gaining or in the lead.

[DrScholl]

It looks like the Scalise shooting will tip it to Handel. I'm revising my prediction from 50-50 to
51.5% Handel
48.5% Ossoff

Landmark polled after the shooting and found no change.

But Ppolls has her in the lead, Trafalgar has her rising from behind to the lead, and another poll had her gaining. That's three polls that have her either gaining or in the lead.

CSPPolls is fake and Trafalgar is a Republican poll. No independent poll has had her in the lead for over a month.

[Brittain33]

But Ppolls has her in the lead

Who does? Is that the dubious CSP poll or a different one?