GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Beet]

The problem is, the Democrats were using the early vote going heavily in their favor to argue that they were doing well, when in fact it was just cannibalizing their election day vote. It refers to the notion that the partisan balance of the early vote will tell us anything about the total result, as opposed to telling us that the partisan balance of the election day vote will simply be the opposite. It doesn't matter that the campaign doesn't have to worry about the voter changing their mind if their supporters aren't in a majority to begin with. The whole obsession with the early vote is a gigantic red herring, IMO.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the  new Landmark result following Trafalgar, it's clear that the race is tightening at the end.  This isn't too surprising as the undecideds in a Republican district start making up their minds. 

[JJC]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

There's a difference between being right coincidentally and actually being right. If I correctly calculate the odds of a quarter landing on heads three times in a row, then that makes me right. If I correctly guess that the quarter will land on heads three times in a row, then that makes me lucky.

That's why there are so many "pollsters" in each election cycle who get bestowed with the title of "[one of the] most accurate pollsters of the election cycle", and then proceed to being hilariously wrong in future ones (just like they were in the past). In most cases, their methodologies haven't changed; they just lucked out. If a pollster predicts in every election that the results are going to be more GOP/DEM than other pollsters are showing, and the results in one election cycle do in fact end up being more GOP/DEM than most expected, then voila: "most accurate pollster"!

TL;DR: broken clock is right twice a day; Trafalgar is a sh**t pollster

I don't know about Trafalgar's past record but I do remember they employed a very unique methodology during 2016. They asked the standard 'who will you be voting for' and other questions. But then after that they would ask 'who do you think you neighbor will be voting for'. In every state they polled, Trump did about 5% better in the neighbor question than the original one.

Given the way Trump and his supporters were characterized in the media, it wouldn't have been surprising that they hid their preference...

[The Other Castro]

This race was always going to end super tight. This polling isn't a surprise.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

Also, factors such as weather could have an effect on Election Day turnout.  That won't affect early votes that are already cast.

(In case anyone's interested: the forecast for tomorrow is nice in the morning, with rain and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening).

[Roronoa D. Law]

No matter who wins tomorrow let just remember this happen.

GA-6    2012   2016
Fulton  R+25   R+3
Cobb    R+35  R+15
Dekalb R+4     D+19

[Adam Griffin]

Back to more important discussions, what kind of EV lead should Ossoff be having for a win here, 58-60%?

55 is my benchmark. The EV should be over half of the district's vote, and Handel probably cannibalized a lot of ED voters compared to Round 1

With 130k votes cast early and assuming another 90k will vote tomorrow, Ossoff needs 55% in EV and 43% in ED (for a total of 50.2%).

He got 41% on ED in April, so assuming the GOP has cannibalized some of their vote in EV compared to April/relative to Dems, the latter should be doable. The former is the real question.

[The Other Castro]

Likeliest EV range to me appears to be 54-58%.

[kyc0705]

As expected, this thread is toxic. There is so much bad, overreacting "analysis" going on here. Nate Cohn's twitter account has better takes than this garbage. Chill out people. A Republican or Democrat winning in GA-6 tomorrow means a Republican or Democrat won in GA-6. And possibly, NOTHING more.

[JJC]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

You wanna know what has been the best (pro-Republican) framing of the election I've heard so far?


Hollywood vs. Georgia. That is a very effective campaign theme because it plays to people's identities rather than try to win over their rationale (which is hard). It makes the race 'us vs them'. Are you a proud Georgian or an elitist hollywood type?

If there's one thing the GOP needs to learn from Trump it's how to drive the narrative in your favor. You may hate Trump but the guy is great at appealing to people's base emotions.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Man I leave for a couple hours an Ossoff has lost

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to more important discussions, what kind of EV lead should Ossoff be having for a win here, 58-60%?

55 is my benchmark. The EV should be over half of the district's vote, and Handel probably cannibalized a lot of ED voters compared to Round 1

With 130k votes cast early and assuming another 90k will vote tomorrow, Ossoff needs 55% in EV and 43% in ED (for a total of 50.2%).

He got 41% on ED in April, so assuming the GOP has cannibalized some of their vote in EV compared to April/relative to Dems, the latter should be doable. The former is the real question.

The EV count was actually a bit over 140K.

[JJC]

The shooting of Scalise is leading to a Handel surge.

Obama please drone

How bad are things for Republicans when they need attempted political assassinations to win red districts

Trump won it by 1%. Comparing it to Price's numbers who was a popular incumbent running against a 'some dude' token opposition is fallacious.

The only thing that tomorrow will show regardless of who wins is that public opinions have not changed in any meaningful way since the election.

[kyc0705]

The shooting of Scalise is leading to a Handel surge.

Out of all the bad takes in this thread...

[Hindsight was 2020]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

[Xing]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

Maybe realize that this is still one individual race, and a lot can happen in a year and a half...

[Mr.Phips]

Once again, it looks like election day came a week too late for Dems.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

Maybe realize that this is still one individual race, and a lot can happen in a year and a half...

Dude they spent 30 mil on this race if he loses recruiters will freak out

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to more important discussions, what kind of EV lead should Ossoff be having for a win here, 58-60%?

55 is my benchmark. The EV should be over half of the district's vote, and Handel probably cannibalized a lot of ED voters compared to Round 1

With 130k votes cast early and assuming another 90k will vote tomorrow, Ossoff needs 55% in EV and 43% in ED (for a total of 50.2%).

He got 41% on ED in April, so assuming the GOP has cannibalized some of their vote in EV compared to April/relative to Dems, the latter should be doable. The former is the real question.

The EV count was actually a bit over 140K.

This prompted me to check the absentee file, and it looks like DeKalb processed a few more mail votes (about 180) over the weekend.  So the total early vote through yesterday was:

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32591 (23.2%)
Fulton 80518 (57.3%)
Total 140490

I'll check again after tonight's update and post something if the numbers change.

[Doimper]

Alan Grayson continues to be walking sleaze

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A couple anecdotal observations:

-One of my roommates had over a friend from GA-6 who didn't even know what GA-6 was or if she was in it.  It turns out she did live in it and recognized the names Handel and Ossoff when I mentioned them.  I would imagine she either won't vote or will vote for Ossoff based on other things she said.

-One of my coworkers has a good friend (~20-21 year old) who lives in GA-6 and said she voted for Handel and that all of her friends are also voting for Handel.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Harry Enten is giving Ossoff chances of winning 60/40 https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/876936161796661248

[hueylong]

You wanna know what has been the best (pro-Republican) framing of the election I've heard so far?


Hollywood vs. Georgia. That is a very effective campaign theme because it plays to people's identities rather than try to win over their rationale (which is hard). It makes the race 'us vs them'. Are you a proud Georgian or an elitist hollywood type?

If there's one thing the GOP needs to learn from Trump it's how to drive the narrative in your favor. You may hate Trump but the guy is great at appealing to people's base emotions.

Once again, this is the sixth most-educated district in the country. Pretty sure appeals to emotion are going to prove inferior to actual discussions of the issues, like healthcare/AHCA, taxes, government accountability and transparency, etc.

[JJC]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

You wanna know what has been the best (pro-Republican) framing of the election I've heard so far?


Hollywood vs. Georgia. That is a very effective campaign theme because it plays to people's identities rather than try to win over their rationale (which is hard). It makes the race 'us vs them'. Are you a proud Georgian or an elitist hollywood type?

If there's one thing the GOP needs to learn from Trump it's how to drive the narrative in your favor. You may hate Trump but the guy is great at appealing to people's base emotions.

Trump is indeed great at heaping out low IQ red meat with a touch of latent racism for the GOP base.

Only could Republican voters believe a guy who is an Emmy nominated Hollywood reality TV star who actively courted celebrities and models

Yawn.

The democratic party's entire existence has devolved into identity politics and 'othering' against people they disagree with. They certainly don't have a platform of ideas anymore.

Hell, 50% of their entire political lexicon now consists of 'racism/sexism/homophobia/xenophobia/transphobia/nazi's!'.

Okay. Whatever.

[Brittain33]

Trump won it by 1%. Comparing it to Price's numbers who was a popular incumbent running against a 'some dude' token opposition is fallacious.

The only thing that tomorrow will show regardless of who wins is that public opinions have not changed in any meaningful way since the election.

This goes on the assumption that Handel is as flawed and toxic a candidate for Congress as Trump was for President in this district, no?