GA-6 Special election discussion thread
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  GA-6 Special election discussion thread
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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 248978 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #2925 on: June 19, 2017, 06:07:33 PM »


Trump won it by 1%. Comparing it to Price's numbers who was a popular incumbent running against a 'some dude' token opposition is fallacious.

The only thing that tomorrow will show regardless of who wins is that public opinions have not changed in any meaningful way since the election.

This goes on the assumption that Handel is as flawed and toxic a candidate for Congress as Trump was for President in this district, no?

Trump still won the election, did he not?  He obviously wasn't that toxic.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2926 on: June 19, 2017, 06:11:06 PM »


Trump won it by 1%. Comparing it to Price's numbers who was a popular incumbent running against a 'some dude' token opposition is fallacious.

The only thing that tomorrow will show regardless of who wins is that public opinions have not changed in any meaningful way since the election.

This goes on the assumption that Handel is as flawed and toxic a candidate for Congress as Trump was for President in this district, no?

Trump still won the election, did he not?  He obviously wasn't that toxic.

I was talking in the context of this district and its voting history.
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Person Man
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« Reply #2927 on: June 19, 2017, 06:12:32 PM »

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

Completely start over? We can't have a country where one party can't govern and the other can't win. But maybe this, too will pass.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #2928 on: June 19, 2017, 06:13:28 PM »

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

You wanna know what has been the best (pro-Republican) framing of the election I've heard so far?


Hollywood vs. Georgia. That is a very effective campaign theme because it plays to people's identities rather than try to win over their rationale (which is hard). It makes the race 'us vs them'. Are you a proud Georgian or an elitist hollywood type?

If there's one thing the GOP needs to learn from Trump it's how to drive the narrative in your favor. You may hate Trump but the guy is great at appealing to people's base emotions.

Trump is indeed great at heaping out low IQ red meat with a touch of latent racism for the GOP base.

Only could Republican voters believe a guy who is an Emmy nominated Hollywood reality TV star who actively courted celebrities and models

Yawn.

The democratic party's entire existence has devolved into identity politics and 'othering' against people they disagree with. They certainly don't have a platform of ideas anymore.

Hell, 50% of their entire political lexicon now consists of 'racism/sexism/homophobia/xenophobia/transphobia/nazi's!'.

Okay. Whatever.

You just quoted your endorsement of a strategy of divide and rule.
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hueylong
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« Reply #2929 on: June 19, 2017, 06:14:25 PM »

Um, why are people taking this new Trafalgar poll seriously? And no, 'omg bc they predicted Trump's win' isn't a good enough answer.

Their earlier poll had Ossoff up 12.4% in the early vote and now have him up only 2.64%, despite the fact that most of the early vote was in when the first poll was conducted?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2930 on: June 19, 2017, 06:19:02 PM »

We're getting off-track. Let's stick to GA-6 discussion, please.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #2931 on: June 19, 2017, 06:20:24 PM »

Ossoff has held a lead consistently in a district Trump won by only 2. The last minute hot take polls don't fundamentally make me believe Handel will win. I think Ossoff will win by a bigger by expected margin of 5%. Trump's approval rating, the education levels of the district, and Ossoff winning 48% and having significantly better firepower since the runoff began all make me believe Ossoff will win by a fairly close but not close mark. The D swing all year has been ridiculously pronounced.

I could be wrong but we'll see.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2932 on: June 19, 2017, 06:24:20 PM »

Any additional posts that are off-topic for GA-6 will get deleted immediately. Thank you.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2933 on: June 19, 2017, 06:26:01 PM »

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

He does not even live in the district.
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JJC
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« Reply #2934 on: June 19, 2017, 06:28:59 PM »

My final Prediction
Handel 52%
Ossoff 48%
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #2935 on: June 19, 2017, 06:29:07 PM »

People also forget the Atlanta suburbs are diversifying and there will be a healthy chunk of minority voters for Ossoff tomorrow. They also forgot registration was reopened to the benefits of the Democrats.

All of the data implies Ossoff will win. Now Handel could win but I doubt it.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2936 on: June 19, 2017, 06:31:18 PM »

My final Prediction
Handel 52%
Ossoff 48%

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RI
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« Reply #2937 on: June 19, 2017, 06:34:43 PM »

With the latest polls, I suspect Handel pulls it off
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Webnicz
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« Reply #2938 on: June 19, 2017, 06:34:59 PM »

I cant believe all this over a the crazy man with a gun

If ossoff looses the radical left will begin shouting "Bc he wasn't a progressive populist enough" without recognizing that populism is why this district swung left
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #2939 on: June 19, 2017, 06:40:39 PM »

Ossoff should win I believe all this narrow Handel lead is just polls try to tightens the race for website clicks and be able say they got right because of margin error. This is not 2016 redux because its GA nobody has to lie that they voting for a Republican.
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kyc0705
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« Reply #2940 on: June 19, 2017, 06:48:22 PM »

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

He does not even live in the district.

Isn't this only relevant if he loses by one vote?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2941 on: June 19, 2017, 06:50:37 PM »

This race is encouraging, but Dems still have plenty of seats to unseat Ryan, the House will not fall on this race alone or should it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2942 on: June 19, 2017, 06:51:04 PM »

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

He does not even live in the district.

Isn't this only relevant if he loses by one vote?

It may cost him a few votes; it could be the deciding factor for a voter who was truly on the fence.  He probably should have moved into the district before the campaign started.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2943 on: June 19, 2017, 06:56:49 PM »

This old article of Nate Silver's is worth a re-read in the face of a close election: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/15-essential-questions-to-ask-in-close/
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2944 on: June 19, 2017, 07:00:01 PM »

This race has wore me out and I don't even live in Georgia. No matter who wins tomorrow it will be a win for GA-06, the constituents there must be exhausted.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2945 on: June 19, 2017, 07:01:14 PM »

This race has wore me out and I don't even live in Georgia. No matter who wins tomorrow it will be a win for GA-06, the constituents there must be exhausted.

We'd like to thank the Ossoff and Handel campaigns for sponsoring the months of May and June on Atlanta TV and radio.
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hueylong
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« Reply #2946 on: June 19, 2017, 07:19:26 PM »

Handel was born and raised in Washington D.C. and moved to Georgia later on.

Ossoff was born and raised in the district, still has family there, and now resides just a short drive away because he's supporting his fiancee while she finishes up medical school.

And Ossoff is supposed to be the outsider? How idiotic.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2947 on: June 19, 2017, 07:22:27 PM »

I think the race will end up being Handel 51%, Ossoff 49%, the momentum the last few days has been in favor of Handel.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #2948 on: June 19, 2017, 07:49:30 PM »

Will anyone be at either candidate's watch parties? Trying to get one of my political junkie friends to go to Ossoff's with me.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2949 on: June 19, 2017, 07:57:58 PM »

I see Atlas has hit the panic button

Possibly. I don't even understand why. This race was still functionally a toss-up even when Ossoff had a tiny lead, and even if Handel now has a tiny lead in some polls, it's still as much a toss-up as it was before.

I'd say I am no more nervous than I was 3 weeks ago, as it's unavoidable in a toss-up where the stakes are largely symbolic but heavily so - Democrats need a win for morale, which would also help with recruiting and fundraising.
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