GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[publicunofficial]

I kinda get the feeling the DCCC is punting on the special election, and is saving their time and energy (and money) for the 2018 general instead. We'll see though.

[publicunofficial]

I kinda get the feeling the DCCC is punting on the special election, and is saving their time and energy (and money) for the 2018 general instead. We'll see though.

They're clearly not; Ossoff has -- already -- set a record for fastest online fundraising for a congressional candidate, beating Elizabeth Warren's 2012 campaign.

Is that online fundraising coming from the DCCC though? The people I've seen investing in this race are more netroots types than the actual Democratic establishment.

[publicunofficial]

The filing deadline is Wednesday the 14th by the way. Currently the GOP side is ex-Secretary of State, 2014 Senate candidate, and former Susan G. Komen Foundation chairwoman Karen Handel, and businessman Bruce LeVell, former director of the "National Diversity Coalition for Trump".


I'd say a runoff with Handel is Likely R and a runoff with LeVell is a Toss-Up for Ossoff. If this is a district that likes Republicans but hates Trump, then one of Trump's biggest campaign supporters is probably a bad fit.

[publicunofficial]

Honestly if Ossoff or Quist/Curtis even make it close, I'd consider it a moral victory.

[publicunofficial]

I mean to be fair, they did make Osoff look like a complete idiot, but the fact that this was what they went with is still telling.

Did they make him look like an idiot? He seems like a guy who had fun with his friends when he went to Georgetown.

Also "He's not serious enough for Washington" is a weak ad when the President is a reality TV monster.

[publicunofficial]

I mean to be fair, they did make Osoff look like a complete idiot, but the fact that this was what they went with is still telling.

Most people would look like morons if you took them at their "having fun at college" or "making goofy videos" part of their life.

I agree 100% and I'm not saying this ad would make me vote against Osoff, but fair or not they did make Osoff look like an idiot (certainly to someone who knows little about him).  What I'm saying is this is not a district where the Democrat will ever get the benefit of the doubt on anything and a lot of people are hypocrites when it comes to judging folks for this sort of thing imo (especially older folks).  I could see this ad being pretty effective with Never Trump Republicans who'd leap at any excuse to rationalize voting against Osoff, but would reluctantly vote for Osoff if said excuse failed to materialize.

By your reasoning, literally any attack ad period would probably be enough to win those types of voters over.

[publicunofficial]

GOP Attack #1: Ossoff likes Star Wars!

GOP Attack #2:



"His name sounds vaguely not-white"

[publicunofficial]

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
#GA06: Hearing some private grumbling from top Rs that early GOP attacks portraying Ossoff as immature haven't worked. New msging in works.

Prediction: Their next attack will be to call him a liberal.

[publicunofficial]

New poll of possible match ups have Ossoff beating Handel 42-41 an Gray 44-42 http://m.dailykos.com/stories/2017/3/24/1646914/-As-a-new-poll-gives-Jon-Ossoff-a-runoff-lead-the-GOP-drops-another-1-1-million-on-ads

Me after November: "I should really learn to not freak out after every poll, look at the basic fundamentals of the race, and remember everything within the margin of error is basically a toss-up"

Me at this poll:

[publicunofficial]

Someone refresh me on Georgia law: If a candidate gets over 50% in the special primary, the election is over correct?

[publicunofficial]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

[publicunofficial]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

Ms. Milano is well known and well loved by Americans overall, Gorham is not.

Hey man, Harper's Island was pretty entertaining.

[publicunofficial]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

That not reason for them to give up. They should give up because a R-14 district in off year election in the south is remotely competitive.

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin. This race should have been viewed as competitive from day 1. They reelected Price big because they thought Clinton would win the presidency and wanted to make sure the house could be a check on her. But they're far less inclined to elect a republican now that Trump is in office.

Price was unopposed in 2016.

[publicunofficial]

It's a toss up and Ossoff is the underdog.

This.

The media is starting to build Ossoff up to be the favorite. Feels like it's gonna end with him coming up a few points short and then a million Dems in Disarray articles will follow.

[publicunofficial]

Sabato just changed GA-06 from Likely R to Toss-Up.

Said that it will remain a toss-up if the overall D vote is greater than 45%.

[publicunofficial]

Josh Kraushaar speculates that an Ossoff win would do wonders for D recruitment in similar seats. (TX-07, KS-03, CA-45, NJ-11 namely).

[publicunofficial]

RRH is commissioning a poll, so hopefully we get a decent picture soon.

Paul Ryan's PAC apparently has a poll out that has Ossoff with -17 favorables, which I'm gonna go ahead and say is biased.

[publicunofficial]

Democrats should just pick the most obscure member of the House and make them leader, and have them serve until their name is less popular than ebola and then start the ritual over again.

[publicunofficial]

How I rate the run-off, based on Ossoff's percentage in the primary:

Under 40: Likely R, very worrying sign
40-44: Lean R, good showing but this district is still too Republican to win
44-47: Toss-Up
47-49: Lean D

[publicunofficial]

What wing of the Democratic Party is Ossoff from?  Does he have unusual appeal to a district like GA-6 by being less socialist on economics?

His ads have emphasized national security and eliminating government waste. I'm sure he has some views you'd call socialist, same with most young Democrats honestly.

[publicunofficial]

The amount of Kansas Republicans voting Dem may also be due to Brownback's unpopularity with moderate R's. Some of the same Republicans that backed Paul Davis.

[publicunofficial]

Dems getting under 40 in Georgia while coming close in Kansas and possibly Montana would at least serve to sound some alarm bells at the DCCC regarding their strategy. I would hope.

[publicunofficial]

Did RRH poll Trump approval within the district?

[publicunofficial]

Because this race has been effectively nationalized. Most voters will be voting based off their feelings on Trump, and turnout will determine the results. The democrats need to find someone who can turn out their voters for off-year stuff, and fast.

Wealthy educated voters are more likely to think their vote out. Less likely to vote straight ticket, more likely to say "Well I hate Trump, but this Ossoff guy might vote to raise my taxes"

[publicunofficial]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.