GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[KingSweden]

He can but probably won't

[KingSweden]

The ad does raise an interesting issue though. Millennials born in the late 80s onward will have a lot of videos, social media and online digital papertrails. How will this be used when they run for office?

RRH, of all places, expressed concern about this ad for that very reason.

[KingSweden]

Also that quote makes no sense. "Ossoff might get 50% in a crowded primary but is unlikely to win the runoff." If anything he's more likely to get 50% in the runoff than the primary.

I could see the argument of Republicans not being ready for the jungle primary with a crowded Republican field but mobilizing better for the runoff.

Yeah, this is a fair assessment.

[KingSweden]

House polls should always earn skepticism, especially small sample sizes in a special.

That said, RRH are a non-hack outfit and nobody should expect Ossofd to take this without a runoff

[KingSweden]

If Ossoff doesn't live in the district, how is he so popular there? Anyway, Ossoff could be a Southern rising star post-Clinton/Edwards.

He lives literally about a 15 minute run from GA-06. Between weird county lines and the district lines they might as well all be the same place.

Yeah. My Congresswoman (Jayapal) didn't live in my district either, but nobody really cares because she did going by the old boundaries, still lives reasonably close, promised to move after the election, and the fact that nobody really notices a cultural distinction just by crossing Madison St where the congressional line is. We trust her to represent us. I'm guessing there are similar dynamics in metro Atlanta.

She was technically in Smith's district, no?

Have to imagine her residency would have been a bigger issue had she not lived in Seattle proper, rather than just the part of the city outside of the 7th

[KingSweden]

Ossoff at 46, Gray takes the second slot

[KingSweden]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

Pretty sensible prediction, imo.

Word

[KingSweden]

Apparently, Handel's going to free the black slaves from the Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

The husband of Republican congressional candidate Karen Handel shared an image on his Twitter timeline Tuesday that urged voters to support his wife in order to "free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation."

....

Dear lord. This is... something else.

[KingSweden]

Ossoff reserves another $6.6 million in airtime.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/11/ossoff-ups-the-ante-pours-6-6m-into-ads-for-6th-district-runoff/

This is going to be like a $50 million race when this is over.

That's insane and utterly unsustainable

[KingSweden]

"We should be investing everywhere! 50-state strategy! Why are we not funding winnable races?"

"But don't invest where I don't like the voters because they don't fit my preconceived notions of who should be voting for Democrats."

Hahahaha I dig this

[KingSweden]

Regardless of party or position, this is the kind of approach to politics that we could use more of:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good stuff. How our politics should be.

[KingSweden]

I think Marty is right, though I still think Ossoff wins very, very narrowly. Knife edge Tossup

And predictit is not a good barometer as 2016 and Brexit should show.