GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Matty]

Evidence is emerging that ossof's early vote advantage is waning.

[Matty]

UPDATE

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[Matty]

This was always bound to happen. It's a 60/40 Republican district. I'd rather they get as much of their vote share counted prior to ED as possible than have a 40-point difference between EV/ED and get our hopes up on Election Night when the early vote totals get counted first.

This is probably NOT the case, but I wonder if the gop early voters are voting later simply because they actually had to choose between 4 or 5 options, which may take them a few days to decide who to pull lever for?

[Matty]

While it's disappointing to see an R-registered EV advantage, I don't care what sort of electorate it is as long as it gives Ossoff 50% of the vote.

Arch, just out of pure curiosity, why do you consider yourself an independent and not a democrat?

[Matty]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

Don't pay attention to early vote data from polls. The sample sizes are too small. 2016 showed how off some of them were.

[Matty]

So I've seen polls that suggest that 2/3 of those who voted early went for Ossoff. Any idea what % of voters in GA-06 will have been early vote?

There were about 55K early votes.  This number may go a bit higher as some absentee ballots are returned today and tomorrow.  In the last midterm election in the District, there were about 210K total votes.  But that was a regular election rather than a special (so turnout may be lower this time).  OTOH, it wasn't at all competitive (so turnout may be higher this time).  Pick one.

Another reason to think turnout will be higher than what you'd expect is that the district is educated and fairly white. Education correlates highly with midterm voting, as does being older and whiter. Now, that may be different in the age of trump, but I think it's safe to say turnout will be healthy.

[Matty]

Any weather updates for tomorrow?

Seeing twitter chatter that it will be heavy heavy rain and flash flood warnings from 9am to 9pm.

[Matty]

Greg Bluestein‏ @bluestein
Tea leaves: Dems in #GA06 are buoyed by especially high turnout in Sandy Springs precinct that overwhelmingly backed Nunn in '14. #gapol

High dem ED turnout in delkalb is to be expected considering the EV was anemic due to limited availability of early voting spots.

[Matty]

So high turnout all over the place. Somewhat eliminates any sort of things we can take away from it.

People need to remember that dekalb county has tons of voters in the lines that would have voted early.

[Matty]

Hannah Perkins @hannahkatt_

As of 5pm Fulton Co Precinct SS26 is reporting 1,418 votes of the +3,000 registered voters.#gapol #FlipThe6th

5:10 PM - 18 Apr 2017 · Fulton County North Annex Service Center

GAGOP right now:

Your schtick is old.

Why do you guys do this before every single election?

[Matty]

Just so you know, the past few pages on this thread are why the hard left bent to this board makes it so much harder for it to function as an election data forum.

We're getting one sided reports, we're getting gifs of "sweating". Then, when the night is over, the haughtiness starts again with the next race.

[Matty]

As a Democrat and a Mets fan I am used to heart break. All I can think about tonight is a continued tale of woe. Hope the streak breaks because this year has been very sad to watch.

Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. Tonight will be a win for Ossof if he gets 47 or above.

[Matty]

Democrats will be just as fired up in the run off it it goes to that.

[Matty]

One of the issues without turnout in a jungle is that it may or may not be enough to get over the 50 mark.

If this was the runoff, it would be a concern re the sandy precincts. The question is whether the turnout disparities can improve ossof's margin by 6-7 points.

[Matty]

Yep, but we are getting "reports" (hate that word especially when it comes from twitter) that turnout is high in both red and blue areas.

Who knows.

[Matty]

Yep, but we are getting "reports" (hate that word especially when it comes from twitter) that turnout is high in both red and blue areas.

Who knows.

Which reports indicated high turnout in GOP precincts?

random twitter reports about places out in cobb.

Like I said, we will see. But if history is our guide, twitter reports should not be taken too seriously. On either side.

The only time in elections that twitter reports are legit are inside caucus rooms where people take pics of the vote count.

[Matty]

Anyone with some links to good results pages tonight?

Honestly, updating this thread is probably a top notch source for vote updates

[Matty]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.

two months is a bizarre time period, imo.

Why can't a runoff only be mere days/week after the jungle?

[Matty]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

At this point, doesn't even matter considering polls close at 7.

[Matty]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

Old joke: the evening rush hour in ATL starts at 3:30.  Except on Friday, when it starts on Thursday.

haha.

Does Atlanta literally have the worst traffic in the first world?

[Matty]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

What do you mean?

Georgia Highway 400, the expressway that runs through the north Fulton suburbs -- and the further north you go, the more Republican they are.  Presumably he's thinking that this will delay some of the GOP voters from getting home to vote.

You'd think these folks would have thought of that when leaving to vote.

[Matty]

NYT's expects results to start coming in at 7:30

Wish it was earlier.

[Matty]

Fulton County will not be releasing anything, no early vote or whatever, until 8.

Boo this man! boo this!

[Matty]

WE WANT RESULTS AND WE WANT THEM NOW.

CAN I GET A HELL YEA FROM ATLASERS?

[Matty]

Imagine if Ossoff got 49.98%.

Imagine if he got exactly 50%. I imagine you need over 50% to avoid a runoff.

Nope, you need 50.00000000%