GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Xing]

Personally, I'm going to wait until next week before I try to gauge where this race is headed. I highly doubt that Ossoff will win outright. Maybe he'll get near 45% if he has a good night, but I'm almost positive this will head to a run-off, and then we'll have a better idea who's favored.

[Xing]

Consider this a friendly reminder not to over-analyze turnout reports and very early results. See you at 7 pm EST, friends.

[Xing]

I'm still going to be cautious. I'll say Ossoff gets about 45-46%.

[Xing]

STOP THE COUNT!

But seriously, let's not get too excited too quickly...

[Xing]

This is early vote. We'll know more when election day votes start coming in.

[Xing]

This is still reminding me a bit too much of KS-04 and the early vote in Florida last year. Ossoff could still get crushed in the election day vote, so I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

[Xing]

Ossoff just went from 71.3% in DeKalb to 66.5%. That's not too encouraging.

[Xing]

Ossoff down to 54% in Cobb.

[Xing]

Ossoff is at 49% in Cobb, just 6% above his target.

[Xing]

Ossoff is down to just 58.5% in DeKalb. That's below his target.

[Xing]

Well this sucks if you are a Democrat...

Why? Surely you weren't expecting an outright win tonight?

It's a law of the universe that Democrats will panic about the pending apocalypse if they're not winning in a landslide, and Republicans will gloat about their invincibility if they're not losing in a landslide.

[Xing]

What a great Tom Brady style comeback. Trump wins again.

Actually, Trump's chosen one got a little-league 9%. Pretty sure that counts as a loss for him.

[Xing]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

[Xing]

Let's also not forget that a lot can happen in two months. I'd rate the run-off a Toss-Up.

[Xing]

Ossoff would probably need about 49.5% of the remaining vote in Fulton to win outright. Probably not going to happen.

[Xing]

Come on, Fulton.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTyN-vvFIkE

[Xing]

I think we finally found something that can unite us across party lines: Our hatred of having to wait indefinitely for results.

[Xing]

Seriously Dems, go look at your predictions in the prediction thread. Ossoff is beating the vast majority of our expectations. There's nothing to be concerned about.

This is what I've been saying, and I was telling people to be cautious about reading too much into the early vote. Anyway, I do think this race merits a Toss-Up rating, by this point.

[Xing]

Trump tweets:

Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump
Despite major outside money, FAKE media support and eleven Republican candidates, BIG "R" win with runoff in Georgia. Glad to be of help!

When Trump's bar for "winning" is so low, I wonder what it would take for him to "lose." I bet that, by his standards, getting 30% in 2020 would count as a "win."

[Xing]

I mean, obviously Evan Bayh would have gotten 60% in this race.

[Xing]

Ossoff is probably favored, but no one should be saying that he has it in the bag. House polls really aren't that reliable.

[Xing]

I have a feeling that everyone will learn the *wrong* lessons, whatever the outcome is.

[Xing]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

Maybe realize that this is still one individual race, and a lot can happen in a year and a half...