GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The Other Castro]

He can, but he probably won't.

[The Other Castro]

National Dems sending $ to GA-6:

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2017/02/23/daily-202-will-anti-trump-backlash-let-democrats-win-the-georgia-special-election-to-replace-tom-price/58ae458be9b69b1406c75ceb/?utm_term=.d4f3c41ad0d4&wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1

[The Other Castro]

GOP ad against Jon Ossoff attacks him for liking Star Wars and being in an a capella group. I'm not kidding. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztJlZ3Ndbw4

He may have a chance here after all.

[The Other Castro]

That was literally the dumbest attack ad I have ever seen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt35BYEOlEw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo_Ejfc5hW8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMfVqGBE6JI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZeVqj-t1U0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euVkDbQz144

[The Other Castro]

Ossoff has an ad of his own: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omHFCkeSrsM

Turns out Donald Trump is apparently running for Congress in GA-6.

[The Other Castro]

Congressional Leadership Fund (R) has ANOTHER negative ad against Ossoff involving Star Wars.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wua0okxKvmM&feature=youtu.be

[The Other Castro]

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

[The Other Castro]

Finally got the full results of the poll. It is:

Jon Ossoff (D) - 41%
Karen Handel (R) - 16% (leading Gray when you include decimals)
Bob Gray (R) - 16
Judson Hill (R) - 9%
Dan Moody (R) - 5%
Ron Slotin (D) - 3%
David Abroms (R) - 2%
Bruce LeVell (R) - <1%
Someone Else - 2%
Not Sure - 6%

Poll of 625 Likely Special Election Voters conducted over March 15-16.

[The Other Castro]

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
#GA06: Hearing some private grumbling from top Rs that early GOP attacks portraying Ossoff as immature haven't worked. New msging in works.

[The Other Castro]

Kraushaar: CLF adding $1.1M to their ad buy, new barrage will hammer him as Pelosi's rubber stamp.

That article also says the Congressional Leadership Fund (R) polling shows:

-Ossoff leading with 37%
-Ossoff favorability 41/30 (+11)
-Trump favorability (+6)
-Pelosi favorability 25/66 (-41)

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  54s55 seconds ago
FWIW, 447 people have already voted absentee ballots in #GA06. Today is first day of in-person early voting

[The Other Castro]

"The fear is definitely out there" among some Republican strategists that Ossoff could top 50% on the first ballot.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/georgia-special-election-tom-price-seat-jon-ossoff-236703

[The Other Castro]

To avoid disappointment, I'm still going to assume for now that Ossoff will finish in the first round with mid 40s and lose the runoff by about 5 points. Hopefully I can be pleasantly surprised.

[The Other Castro]

Wait, does that SUSA poll say that 11% of early voters are undecided?

[The Other Castro]

So I see people are overreacting as usual. You'd think a forum like this wouldn't try to call the election based on early voting, especially after what happened last year.

Who's calling the election?

[The Other Castro]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

[The Other Castro]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

When was their last poll?

March 22-23. They also had these runoff numbers:

Ossoff 42%, Handel 41%
Ossoff 44%, Gray 42%
Ossoff 44%, Hill 45%
Ossoff 46%, Moody 43%

[The Other Castro]

Final Opinion Savvy poll of GA-6:

Ossoff - 42%
Handel - 21%
Hill - 11%
Gray - 11%
Moody - 9%
Others - 3%
Undecided - 3%

"Among early voters Ossoff has a commanding lead at 63%"

Runoffs:

Ossoff - 44%
Handel - 42%
Undecided - 14%

Ossoff - 46%
Gray - 45%
Undecided - 9%

Ossoff - 47%
Hill - 44%
Undecided - 9%

Moody vs. Ossoff:

Moody - 48%
Ossoff - 45%
Undecided - 7%

Trump approval: 54% Approve, 45% Disapprove

http://opinionsavvy.com/2017/04/14/ga6poll414/

[The Other Castro]

Anything below 45% for all Dems combined should result in the firing of the head of the DCCC.

The DCCC can't run Ossoff's campaign for him, and it's not like he needs any more money.

[The Other Castro]

How can 1% of those that have already voted be undecided? UGH

[The Other Castro]

Another Clout Research poll:

Ossoff 41%
Gray 17%
Handel 15%
Hill 10%
Moody 9%

That's the first poll I've seen with another R leading Handel in...I think this whole race.

[The Other Castro]

Trump takes shots at Ossoff:

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https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/853964023846588420

This is only going to backfire against him.

[The Other Castro]

Dropped $500 on Ossoff on Predictit

Of he loses, he's dead to me

Hoh boy this'll be good.

[The Other Castro]

A lot of people in DeKalb are going to the polls thinking they live in District 6 while in reality they don't.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BPetersenWSB/status/854361655844769792

Better than people that actually live in the district thinking they don't and not voting.

[The Other Castro]

2 more things:

1. Fun fact: It's Karen Handel's birthday today

2. Ossoff campaign says they're preparing for a possible recount, they think it will be close.