GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[The_Doctor]

Based on the 2% Trump win in Georgia's 6th coupled with the strong wave of Democratic enthusiasm why isn't it at least likely that Ossoff reaches 51% on Tuesday? So far the Democrats are running ahead of their 2016 numbers and this is a suburban Atlanta district. Why would they vote for a Republican if they believe they're voting on the Trump Administration?

[The_Doctor]

Based on the 2% Trump win in Georgia's 6th coupled with the strong wave of Democratic enthusiasm why isn't it at least likely that Ossoff reaches 51% on Tuesday? So far the Democrats are running ahead of their 2016 numbers and this is a suburban Atlanta district. Why would they vote for a Republican if they believe they're voting on the Trump Administration?

I don't have the side-by-side numbers to definitely confirm it, but I'm expecting that a greater share of likely voting Democrats in GA-6 have already early voted compared to who had done so in KS-4 at this comparable point. I remember Cohn saying a few days ago that something like 80% of the people remaining who had a 80% chance or greater of voting in a midterm were Republican or Republican leaners.

That 30-point gap in preferences in Sedgwick between EV (Thompson +22) & ED (Estes +10) could look quite small compared to what we see in GA-6 if there isn't substantial breakdown of usual voting fundamentals.

So you feel the Democrats are cannibalizing too many early votes? I'm not sure what you're saying, although that's a pretty interesting assessment.

RRH polled the race; there's indicators that Ossoff might be stronger than we anticipate. Just a thought.

[The_Doctor]

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

[The_Doctor]

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

Reminding me a lot of NoVA in the mid-2000's, honestly.

Yup. North Virginia rapidly bluing, and turned the state from rock ribbed Republican to reliably Democratic. The same thing is happening in Georgia to an extent, where suburbanites are fleeing the GOP in droves. Georgia has steadily become less Republican since 2004, due to racial demographics, but even then so, the Atlanta suburbs are rapidly diversifying as well.

I predict Georgia's legislature will start trending bluer by the 2020s. Which brings me to the second part of my comments ...

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

If they control the legislature by the 2020s by a veto proof majority. Otherwise, if the Democrats hold the gubernatorial mansion, they could be forced into a compromise which preserves the seat for the Democrats.

For a lot of reasons, I think GA Democrats will begin to become a lot more successful as we go into the 2020s. We're seeing the same thing that happened in VA in 2001 happen to GA.

[The_Doctor]

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

This bodes well for the rest of the South.

Just North Carolina and Florida, and Texas marginally. Virginia is already "there".

North Carolina and Florida are probably going to remain tossup states in 20 years. But yes, I do concede that Georgia is not a matter of "if," but a matter of "when" with regards to becoming Safe D.

If Georgia goes Democratic why wouldn't North Carolina? North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia all have strong metropolitan centers and NC and GA have strong minority populations as well. I can see GA, NC, VA as the firewall in the New Democratic South. And I remind you, North Carolina went Trump by 2.5%, while Georgia did it by 6%.3

Mississippi, Texas, and South Carolina will take longer to flip (Obama won 44% in SC and 43% in MS so they're not out of reach) but they're not undoable.

I argue -- as I have elsewhere -- that a anti-neoliberal coalition of poor whites and minorities and struggling middle class voters -- will power the Democratic Party in the South and elsewhere. Suburban voters in Atlanta is easily part of the coalition.

[The_Doctor]

Trump won NC by 3.7 and Georgia by 5.1.

Also, GA-6 is full of affluent white voters, not the kind of voters you describe in your coalition. I still think the WWC is a long term Republican constituency. They've been primed to think all Democrats are domestic terrorists. Conversely, their anti-intellectual/anti-reality rhetoric is a turn-off to traditional college educated whites in places like GA-6.

this is a bit far out but I suggest that affluent voters in suburban areas are more turned off by the current GOP's socially ideologically conservative edge. I contend that these voters will shift to the Democratic Party in considerable measure (they are also becoming more diverse as well). But I think the GOP will adapt and win back these voters but for a decade or so, we can expect areas like GA - 06 to trend blue. I do not believe suburban voters, however, are a long term mainstay of the Democratic Party (like over 10-20 years).

As for the WWC, I am actually basing my theory that an economic situation shifts these voters. The Republican Party's failure to meaningfully address these WWC voters' economic situation will eventually come to a head (these guys have the worst economic situation, aside from poor minorities, and have seen considerable economic stagnation since the millenium; and we currently live under a fairly free trade, deregulated, and low tax regime). But that's neither here or there.

To circle back to this district, the New South, in the next decade, will probably see the powering of Democrats in these suburban districts, and helping the Democrats in statewide elections in NC/GA.

This is a bit of complex theory in that I am suggesting that the suburbanite districts are going to be Democratic over the next decade, then the white working class will join them at some point, and then as the parties shift to accomodate the reality.

[The_Doctor]

I'd say 53-47% Ossoff, 5 point win. I'd have said 51-49% but the last ten days have been really rough on GOP morale and I'd add 2% to the Ossoff win. I'd rate this race as Lean D.

[The_Doctor]

Ossoff has held a lead consistently in a district Trump won by only 2. The last minute hot take polls don't fundamentally make me believe Handel will win. I think Ossoff will win by a bigger by expected margin of 5%. Trump's approval rating, the education levels of the district, and Ossoff winning 48% and having significantly better firepower since the runoff began all make me believe Ossoff will win by a fairly close but not close mark. The D swing all year has been ridiculously pronounced.

I could be wrong but we'll see.

[The_Doctor]

People also forget the Atlanta suburbs are diversifying and there will be a healthy chunk of minority voters for Ossoff tomorrow. They also forgot registration was reopened to the benefits of the Democrats.

All of the data implies Ossoff will win. Now Handel could win but I doubt it.