GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Nyvin]

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Isn't that simply due to the fact that most of these districts are much more Democratic down ballot than at the presidential level?

Anyway, looks like GA-06 will be the first big opportunity for Democrats. It would be pretty bad for them if they lost both MT and GA. Likewise, Republicans should win at least one of the two - GA is a much better bellwether than MT, though.

I don't think Democrats losing both is even that bad, tbh.

Definitely not.   Like 538 said, it's an uphill climb.

[Nyvin]

I mean to be fair, they did make Osoff look like a complete idiot, but the fact that this was what they went with is still telling.

Most people would look like morons if you took them at their "having fun at college" or "making goofy videos" part of their life.

I agree 100% and I'm not saying this ad would make me vote against Osoff, but fair or not they did make Osoff look like an idiot (certainly to someone who knows little about him).  What I'm saying is this is not a district where the Democrat will ever get the benefit of the doubt on anything and a lot of people are hypocrites when it comes to judging folks for this sort of thing imo (especially older folks).  I could see this ad being pretty effective with Never Trump Republicans who'd leap at any excuse to rationalize voting against Osoff, but would reluctantly vote for Osoff if said excuse failed to materialize.

It shows him at a costume party and singing on a stage...how the heck is that something only an idiot would do?   Are all people who go to costume parties idiots or all people who sign on a stage idiots?   That's complete bull crap,  he was young at some point in his life, so what?

That ad has to be the one of the most pathetic attacks I've ever seen.   If Republicans will vote for Trump but not Ossoff because of that then they really have lost their minds.

[Nyvin]

So it adds up to more or less 49% R to 44% D.

[Nyvin]

As long as San Francisco pumps out all the cash it does, Pelosi will remain in the leadership.

[Nyvin]

@Nate_Cohn: "For what it's worth, day 2 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 55, R 32.
Over all, including abs, it's D 55, R 31, with 3372 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/846892024146018304

Is it too arrogant to guarantee Ossoff is making the run off?

I don't see it as possible that Ossoff doesn't make the run off.

The republicans in the district are rapidly abandoning the party, as shown by Trump's very narrow margin.

And Isakson's landslide win? Yes, yes... I know Isakson is not a generic R, but using that logic Quist and Tester would be toast because Clinton lost MT by 20 points. There's more than just the presidential results to consider. Not denying that Ossoff can win, though.

No, you're "not" using that logic.   Clinton isn't in the White House with a 36% approval rating.

[Nyvin]

Republican leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" Ossoff is going to hit 50% ban avoid the runnoff https://twitter.com/ALT_DOJ/status/847098515020926977/photo/1

If this happens, it really is time for Republicans to panic.

[Nyvin]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

The map they passed was only used in 92 and 94,  it was struck down by the courts because of packing of African Americans.   It wasn't about taking out Gingrich,  it was made to minimize Black representation.

[Nyvin]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

The map they passed was only used in 92 and 94,  it was struck down by the courts because of packing of African Americans.   It wasn't about taking out Gingrich,  it was made to minimize Black representation.

Oh really? That was the reported theory at the time.


Link

Link

The 1991 map was horrible because of the way it was made. After receiving the stringent demands from the DOJ, GA Speaker Tom Murphy's attitude was basically, "I don't care who draws the map or what it looks like, as long as it'll pass preclearance and will give me a Representative who's not Newt Gingrich." The map that eventually passed was put forward by a group of Republicans, IIRC, who designed the VRA districts with such a strong minority presence so that it'd get the support of African American legislators.

I'm sure "Going after Gingrich" was the easier thing to say publicly, but that doesn't change the fact that the courts determined later the map was drawn with racial intent, that is they intentionally packed the African Americans.    You don't publicly say that before the map is drawn.

[Nyvin]

Good thing for Ossoff is that most of the GOP strongholds are still bottleneck. 400 is a nightmare between 4 to 7.

Old joke: the evening rush hour in ATL starts at 3:30.  Except on Friday, when it starts on Thursday.

haha.

Does Atlanta literally have the worst traffic in the first world?

I'd say Los Angeles is worse.

[Nyvin]

I'm thinking Ossoff comes just short of a majority, something like 48-49%. 

Handel comes in second, something in the high teens.

[Nyvin]

What is left in Fulton?

97 out of 116 precincts.

[Nyvin]

It looks like most of what's left in Fulton are areas Hillary went more or less 50/50 in, or around there.   I don't think Ossoff is "totally" out of this to win outright.    

[Nyvin]

So, it's entirely Fulton county at this point.

Yep,  DeKalb and Cobb are completely done now.

[Nyvin]

if i read this nate cohn comparison correctly, there seem to be lots of republican votes left.

Oh,  I guess I read the map wrong.

[Nyvin]

It would've helped if Ossoff had moved back into the district as soon as he started running.   It probably made a lot of people uncomfortable that he doesn't live there.

[Nyvin]

Between the polling and the turnout so far I don't see how this can't be described as lean D at this point.