GA-6 Special election discussion thread

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God, I sure hope so.

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Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.

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Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.

Still i don't believe Ossooff has path to victory. A liberal urban Atlanta man, whose main argument is a support  by Civil Rights icon in a district, that adopted to Civil Rights, but most concerned about taxes and own wallet - well, we shall see..

You can support civil rights while still caring about your wallet.

I hope Democrats also invest in that Montana race, though.

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Internal polling for this race just released:

Whose internal?

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Even if he wins the special, can we all agree that he's dead in 2018 when this district's voters actually show up?

No, that makes no sense. Probably one of the most vunerable Democrats, but not "dead."

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Democrats should just pick the most obscure member of the House and make them leader, and have them serve until their name is less popular than ebola and then start the ritual over again.

Sounds like something a puppet of Brenda Lawrence would say.

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Clearly what we need to do now is give up on winnable races

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Remember that if Ossoff doesn't make 50%, there's still the runoff, and the expectations game will probably evolve quite a bit between now and then.

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Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

When was their last poll?

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BREAKING: Ashford Parkside in DeKalb reports. Ossoff with 52.4% of 1038 votes cast. Hillary was 57.0%.

According to 538, he needs almost 59% there

Is that 52.4% ED only, or EV+ED?

That Ashford Parkside Ossoff result is ED only. The Hillary result is EV+ED.

In that case, that's pretty good actually.

And yeah, NYT>DDHQ in general, as far as election results go.

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We can just take it back in 2018 easily.

That's not really guaranteed. If Trump's unpopularity sweeps him into office, there is also a chance it can keep him in office, at least until 2020 or 2024, depending on reelection.

I think the assertion might be that they can gerrymander him out. Not a good thing to gloat about.

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Where is this spreadsheet?

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Is there a chance Ossoff calls for a recount if things stay tight? I'm sure he'd like to win outright if he could.

Ossoff can't ask for a recount. GA law for recount margins is based on closeness of candidates, not closeness to certain thresholds.

I'd imagine that even if he could, he wouldn't, since it likely wouldn't go his way anyway, and the existence of the recount would only hurt him in the runoff, which (especially if he's within striking distance of 50%) very winnable for him.

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P.S. This is the kind of trash that makes me never want to vote for Republicans.

Then why isn't your avatar red (Democratic)?

Because I'm not a Democrat? I'll register if and when I feel it's right. I hold out hope that the Republican party will go back to a better time, but it's minuscule at this point.

However, if you don't find something like that ad as absolutely disgusting and reprehensible, then I don't know what to think.

Thanks for answering! I was asking why don't you identify as a Democrat not because of your condemnation of the ad (I find it disgusting too), but because you said you never want to vote for Republicans. I think it's strange when people insist that they are truly independent. yet way closer to one side than the other (but that's just me). Honestly, going forward, even if polarization "thaws," I think that Rockefeller Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats have next to no (if any) future. No offense to any who are reading this.

That ad was terrible. I wasn't asking/talking about it, but I'll make these statements so nobody thinks that I find it okay. The parties have changed a lot over the last 150 years, and nobody from that time is still alive today. Therefore, I don't think it's fair at all to compare today's Republican and Democratic Parties to those from 1860.

The biggest problem with it is the fact that it implies that black votes are being "coerced" to vote Democratic and aren't voting Democratic because they support the Democratic Party's positions. It's incredibly racist. Not to mention the text above is racist in...many different ways.

Anyway, I'm not sure if this will have an effect, but it does kind of show what a terrible candidate Handel is, even though this is her husband, not her.

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Well, we're not winning in Montana now, so here's to Handel hopefully pissing away the seat.

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana, but then again, if that happens, it is now easier to blame it on Quist's flaws as a candidate (and Handel's flaws) than just "Muh Panera Bread."

I don't think Quist is totally done though.

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The House's passage of Trumpcare is probably going to provide a much needed boost to Ossoff's campaign and might even push him over the edge to win the runoff.

Seeing as this district repeatedly voted for tom price Im not so certain.

They probably voted for him because of the R next to his name, not because they loved all of his policies.

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Do we have any polls of at least the prior repeal bill's popularity in this district?

I don't know about a poll, but 538 did an estimate of the previous bill's popularity by district, and GA-06 came out as 34% support, 49% oppose.

I'm not sure how good their methodology is, though, since the only demographic data they appear to have used is which presidential candidate people voted for in 2016. Given that this is historically more of a Republican district, and its leftward trend in 2016 was probably not because of health care, I wouldn't be surprised if the actual support numbers are a bit higher than those would suggest. Still, not popular.

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Ossoff campaign is registering 100 new voters a day.

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/860557563427000321

https://www.thenation.com/article/georgia-cant-block-new-voters-from-registering-in-the-ossoff-handel-runoff/

That's in all of Georgia, not just the 6th, but still its amazing.

I would guess that a disproportionate number are in the 6th.

And hey, maybe these new voters can help us in the gubernatorial election.

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Confirms my view that this is a tossup with a slight edge to Handel. The runoff is still far away.

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I can't decide who is favored here. I guess still Handel, very very very narrowly.

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This race is ridiculous, whoever wins is going to be there forever with the money they're getting from this.

But they're spending all the money though.

Regardless of who wins, it would be utterly ironic if they lost in 2018.

Especially Handel, IMO.

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I assume that tomorrows GA SD-32 runoff may offer a good proxy for June's runoff. 

What are its voting habits like compared to GA-06?

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I don't think there's any evidence of the GOP consistently outperforming polls.

Ossoff overperformed in the first round (so did Handel, but doing better than expected as a Republican against other Republicans is different from doing better than expected against a Democrat).