GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff has an ad of his own: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omHFCkeSrsM

Turns out Donald Trump is apparently running for Congress in GA-6.

Nice ad but comes off like a preview to the Cosmos.

Very cool. I think Ossoff has a real chance here.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm interested in this race, because for one, it will provide a glimpse into how people closer to my age (that is, those who have grown up with the internet and have lengthy, often embarrassing digital trails) will be attacked in a political campaign. If early indications are to go by, said attacks will be spineless and awful.

That being said, I do believe Ossoff will pull out a squeaker, but I think he'll likely lose in 2018. Still, it will provide a good springboard for his career going forward.

(Also, he's pretty cute imo)

Agree to disagree on this one.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm interested in this race, because for one, it will provide a glimpse into how people closer to my age (that is, those who have grown up with the internet and have lengthy, often embarrassing digital trails) will be attacked in a political campaign. If early indications are to go by, said attacks will be spineless and awful.

That being said, I do believe Ossoff will pull out a squeaker, but I think he'll likely lose in 2018. Still, it will provide a good springboard for his career going forward.

(Also, he's pretty cute imo)

Agree to disagree on this one.

Even in this picture?

Yeah, the facial hair is a turnoff for me, and he's not exactly my type per se either. I can totally see the appeal though.

[Dr. Arch]

Go Ossoff!

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like Team Trump is sweating...sending out poorly written fundraising emails:

"Fake news and Hollywood liberals," what an empty and ridiculous slogan, lol.

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff the dark horse candidate 2020?

[Dr. Arch]

So I see people are overreacting as usual. You'd think a forum like this wouldn't try to call the election based on early voting, especially after what happened last year.

I learned my lesson.

[Dr. Arch]

Republicans absolutely crushed Dems today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/851983941724721152

Not liking what I see.  Ossoff might not even hit 40% on the first ballot when push comes to shove.

Don't make estimates based on early voting.

[Dr. Arch]

Today's Vote: https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/852327832185430016

Republicans: 52%
Democrats: 32%
Independents: 16%

Nate Cohn says Trump would've won today according to the data.

Yea, this was always going to be a heavy lift, I think Ds can win over suburban districts but the south is a different animal. I think the path to majority runs thru PA, NY, CA, MI, FL.

These were people who voted R in the primary. We're not even sure if they're registered Rs. Can we not do this? Let's wait until election day.

[Dr. Arch]

While it's disappointing to see an R-registered EV advantage, I don't care what sort of electorate it is as long as it gives Ossoff 50% of the vote.

[Dr. Arch]

While it's disappointing to see an R-registered EV advantage, I don't care what sort of electorate it is as long as it gives Ossoff 50% of the vote.

Arch, just out of pure curiosity, why do you consider yourself an independent and not a democrat?

I have my quarrels with the Democratic party's leadership and how the institution operates. While "the left" generally represents my ideological views the best in the mainland U.S., the Democratic party has yet to become a more principled institution--still more or less stuck until the older leadership retires.

I also like to think that, someday, Republicans will come to their senses, and I will have choices again. But that's more wishful thinking to be frank. The above reason is the most important to me. However, if Republicans keep pushing the nationalism mumbo jumbo, I'll formally switch (register) regardless. We'll see.

[Dr. Arch]

I bet $10,000 on Ossoff winning.

You're lying.

He needs to give me that money instead.

[Dr. Arch]

Is the DD link out yet?

[Dr. Arch]

lol, this district looks like a mirror image of Texas with a hole in the middle.

[Dr. Arch]

How many from Dekalb reporting?

[Dr. Arch]

I am beyond disappointed although unsurprised. It's astounding how we have an incompetent excuse for a president in the White House, and the Democrats can't get their act together. It's just loss after loss, and it's the regular citizens that suffer from it in the end. MT is their last chance to show that they can do something about it.

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff raised $500K today

The guy is a monster. I'll give him that.

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff raised $500K today

The guy is a monster. I'll give him that.

If he wins here, he could be a threat in an open Senate seat down the line.

I was just thinking that. If Republicans really are malicious enough to try to gerrymander him out in either 2018 or 2020, that Perdue's Senate seat is always up for grabs.

Pretty sure the next open seat in GA would be tilt D. I expect GA pull a CO transition in the next decade.

I might consider moving to GA after my PhD studies conclude then. I have several friends and family members there. We'll see how things go.

[Dr. Arch]

I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.

Why is RI a toss up? I can guess explanations for most of the other choices here, but short of some mass migration of minorities from RI I doubt it will become a toss up in the 30s

Yeah... NH can't be Safe D and RI a tossup, while ME-AL is Safe R. What kind of demographics would achieve that?

WI can't be Safe R anytime soon.

[Dr. Arch]

Apparently, Handel's going to free the black slaves from the Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

The husband of Republican congressional candidate Karen Handel shared an image on his Twitter timeline Tuesday that urged voters to support his wife in order to "free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation."

That's a losing campaign right there.

P.S. This is the kind of trash that makes me never want to vote for Republicans.

[Dr. Arch]

P.S. This is the kind of trash that makes me never want to vote for Republicans.

Then why isn't your avatar red (Democratic)?

Because I'm not a Democrat? I'll register if and when I feel it's right. I hold out hope that the Republican party will go back to a better time, but it's minuscule at this point.

However, if you don't find something like that ad as absolutely disgusting and reprehensible, then I don't know what to think.

[Dr. Arch]

P.S. This is the kind of trash that makes me never want to vote for Republicans.

Then why isn't your avatar red (Democratic)?

Because I'm not a Democrat? I'll register if and when I feel it's right. I hold out hope that the Republican party will go back to a better time, but it's minuscule at this point.

However, if you don't find something like that ad as absolutely disgusting and reprehensible, then I don't know what to think.

Thanks for answering! I was asking why don't you identify as a Democrat not because of your condemnation of the ad (I find it disgusting too), but because you said you never want to vote for Republicans. I think it's strange when people insist that they are truly independent. yet way closer to one side than the other (but that's just me). Honestly, going forward, even if polarization "thaws," I think that Rockefeller Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats have next to no (if any) future. No offense to any who are reading this.

That ad was terrible. I wasn't asking/talking about it, but I'll make these statements so nobody thinks that I find it okay. The parties have changed a lot over the last 150 years, and nobody from that time is still alive today. Therefore, I don't think it's fair at all to compare today's Republican and Democratic Parties to those from 1860.

Yes, absolutely. I'm thinking closer to the 80s and 90s, a time when there were still reasonable Republicans out there, particularly towards all Americans and not catering to ignorance like Handel is doing.

I believe that there is a good kind of conservatism, but it's been abandoned for washed-down racism. Their real political goal is corporate oligarchy. Why else would they campaign like this and want to pass laws like the AHCA, purposefully designed to help companies and let people die?

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff seeking to appeal to Republican voters: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrat-ossoff-hunts-for-republican-votes-6th-district-runoff/Thf08C6tvcKnyj04v5rvVK/

RIP Ossoff.

But he has been trying that already he constantly talks about cutting gov't waste in his ads

Yeah, this is good. If he becomes elected and maintains this persona, he could become entrenched. Politicians that are entrenched usually make an effort to genuinely reach out to voters from both parties and secures the seat.

Also, if this healthcare fiasco blows up as it will, his chances of winning skyrocket.

[Dr. Arch]

A federal judge has ordered that voter registration be reopened until May 21.

Link: http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/federal-judge-orders-georgia-reopen-voter-registration-ahead-6th-district-runoff/ZeJBoBDNllqHU7JGtnUzcN/

This alongside the disastrous healthcare vote should get Ossoff the seat.

[Dr. Arch]

Georgia 32nd senate district runoff is today. Judson Hill abandoned it to for his failed and pathetic attempt at winning Georgia 6th house of reps. This will be an easy GOP hold, but I will still watch it.

Do you have a results page for it?

It'll appear at the link below in a couple of hours, and there'll also be a link to it on the main page of GA SOS.

http://sos.ga.gov/index.php/Elections/current_and_past_elections_results

Can't find it anywhere yet. I assume it's not up.