GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[OneJ]

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

Isn't that simply due to the fact that most of these districts are much more Democratic down ballot than at the presidential level?

Anyway, looks like GA-06 will be the first big opportunity for Democrats. It would be pretty bad for them if they lost both MT and GA. Likewise, Republicans should win at least one of the two - GA is a much better bellwether than MT, though.

I don't think Democrats losing both is even that bad, tbh.

I agree.

Looking at the results from both districts in the past 10 years gives me the conclusion that a Democrat losing either one wouldn't be so terrible.

[OneJ]

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

Democratic strategists, time to put that money where y'all mouths are.

[OneJ]

Vox's take on the GA-06 race

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[OneJ]

I went to a phone bank for Ossoff recently, and the turnout was more than the average phone bank I saw last October for the presidential election, with a younger-skewing crowd. These people's activism would be better spent moving out of D.C., where their contribution to our 270,000 vote margin is meaningless.

That's amazing! If I could, I would definitely make an attempt to volunteer.

[OneJ]

How come Handel is so unpopular in a district like this?

[OneJ]

So I've been exploring the ads that the candidates in this race have put out, and I'm really surprised that Boy Gray managed to fit every single black Republican in the sixth district into a single ad.  It must have taken a lot of work to find them all:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0YpLGWqime4

Also, is it just me, or does this Karen Handel attack ad resemble a horror movie trailer?  It's probably the cheesiest thing I've seen in a long time:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XFb8CAzvy_Y

Bob Gray's ad: LOL! #MAGA

Handel's ad: She thinks this is going to help big league? She needs to think about trying again or else she'll lose in the runoff (if she makes it that far).

[OneJ]

As of now from the SOS:

-13.53% turnout Fulton County
-9.05% turnout in Cobb County
-9.56% turnout in DeKalb County

[OneJ]

DeKalb still barley in.

Is Dekalb expected to be more favorable for Ossoff?

[OneJ]

Apparently, Handel's going to free the black slaves from the Democrats

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/politics/kfile-karen-handel-husband-tweet/index.html

The husband of Republican congressional candidate Karen Handel shared an image on his Twitter timeline Tuesday that urged voters to support his wife in order to "free the black slaves from the Democratic plantation."

What the hell was he thinking?

Did he really want his wife to lose? Did he want to discourage Black people from voting R? I assume so.

[OneJ]

P.S. This is the kind of trash that makes me never want to vote for Republicans.

Then why isn't your avatar red (Democratic)?

Because I'm not a Democrat? I'll register if and when I feel it's right. I hold out hope that the Republican party will go back to a better time, but it's minuscule at this point.

However, if you don't find something like that ad as absolutely disgusting and reprehensible, then I don't know what to think.

Thanks for answering! I was asking why don't you identify as a Democrat not because of your condemnation of the ad (I find it disgusting too), but because you said you never want to vote for Republicans. I think it's strange when people insist that they are truly independent. yet way closer to one side than the other (but that's just me). Honestly, going forward, even if polarization "thaws," I think that Rockefeller Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats have next to no (if any) future. No offense to any who are reading this.

That ad was terrible. I wasn't asking/talking about it, but I'll make these statements so nobody thinks that I find it okay. The parties have changed a lot over the last 150 years, and nobody from that time is still alive today. Therefore, I don't think it's fair at all to compare today's Republican and Democratic Parties to those from 1860.

The biggest problem with it is the fact that it implies that black votes are being "coerced" to vote Democratic and aren't voting Democratic because they support the Democratic Party's positions. It's incredibly racist. Not to mention the text above is racist in...many different ways.

Anyway, I'm not sure if this will have an effect, but it does kind of show what a terrible candidate Handel is, even though this is her husband, not her.

Spot-on reply!

[OneJ]

Hasn't he spent more money on a House race than any previous Democrat? What a whiner. This is as bad as Hillary begging for 1 dollar.

I mean I am pretty sure neoliberal Ossoff himself didn't do this.

[OneJ]

I understand that Comey firing may not affect this race much, but I wonder how do GA-06 voters feel about Trump's action in general.

[OneJ]

Early voting locations for the runoff have been set.  There will be a total of 13: 5 in DeKalb County, 6 in Fulton, and 2 in Cobb.  The first round had 8 locations (2 DeKalb, 4 Fulton, 2 Cobb).  These locations are determined by each county's board of elections. 

http://www.myajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/more-early-voting-sites-open-democrat-leaning-areas-for-6th-district-race/HGLMZduehJL8snLqtt4C4O/

Wow three extra sites in DeKalb is pretty big. Which county had the lowest turnout in the first round?

Caution: this is based on my memory; I can't seem to find the actual numbers online easily.  I believe that turnout in April was roughly 45% in Cobb, 40% in Fulton, but much lower in DeKalb (in the 20's).  It's worth noting that there was a long-lasting downpour in parts of DeKalb on Election Day.

From the Secretary of State's office:

Cobb: 47.55%
Dekalb: 44.67%
Fulton: 40.68%

[OneJ]

Lol. I was surprised at Gravis' format too.

But MT has a point. You would think that numbers like this Handel shouldn't have much of a problem leading Ossoff.

What I find most interesting is that 45%-43% think Handel is better on healthcare despite the fact that 42% don't like the AHCA passed by the House.

[OneJ]

New WSB poll:

Ossoff 49.1
Handel 47.6

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/01/wsb-poll-ossoff-and-handel-locked-in-a-georgia-6th-nail-biter/

Last poll from them Handel up 3 so maybe there is a bit of momentum. I'd feel more confident if Ossoff was consistently posting above 50% considering which way undecideds always go in Southern states.

Also, there's a huge age gap here:

If I'm Ossoff, I have to like the party splits.  He's getting 14% of R's while only losing 7% of D's, and winning large majorities of Independents and Others.

I have to agree. Although I would definitely be more relaxed that Ossoff was polling above 50%, I'm glad that those party splits are slightly favoring him (even though we know how Independents/undecideds behave throughout the South).

[OneJ]

This is some painful stuff from Handel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgcDMYC27JM

This is so cringeworthy to watch. No wonder why some people look at Handel the way they do now.

[OneJ]

I find it interesting that they state that Ossoff has a "majority" rather than "plurality." Handel has the Republican base (despite an unimpressive 15% backing Ossoff). Her two main issues here are her deficit among women (unsurprisingly) and her deficit among Independents (which Trump, Barksdale & other Republicans in Georgia's past have won and won handily too).

Although Handel's still got time, it's evaporating quickly and she has to do something that'll make her seem less "fake" or "uninspiring" because otherwise it will be an embarrassing defeat to her in a district that is usually very safe for Republicans in modern history and one where Trump is still (if i am not mistaken) slightly popular.

EDIT: Also, as others have said already that trend is something Handel should worry about.

[OneJ]

Obvious mound of salt, but:

Ryan Grim @ryangrim
Outside House GOP group tells me their internal poll over the weekend has Handel down 9 to Ossoff. That'd be the biggest gap so far. #GA06

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/874777448025600000

Is it again their strategy of lowering expectations?

If it is then they're not doing a good job spreading it around so everyone sees it.

[OneJ]

GOP pollsters Trafalgar Group have it: Ossoff 50 Handel 47

There polls were super Republican in 2016, but most ended up being pretty accurate.

Can we spot calling them super Republican when they were the most accurate state level polls?

Also, *their

There's a difference between being right coincidentally and actually being right. If I correctly calculate the odds of a quarter landing on heads three times in a row, then that makes me right. If I correctly guess that the quarter will land on heads three times in a row, then that makes me lucky.

That's why there are so many "pollsters" in each election cycle who get bestowed with the title of "[one of the] most accurate pollsters of the election cycle", and then proceed to being hilariously wrong in future ones (just like they were in the past). In most cases, their methodologies haven't changed; they just lucked out. If a pollster predicts in every election that the results are going to be more GOP/DEM than other pollsters are showing, and the results in one election cycle do in fact end up being more GOP/DEM than most expected, then voila: "most accurate pollster"!

TL;DR: broken clock is right twice a day; Trafalgar is a sh**t pollster

Great point Adam. I was just going to ask isn't Trafagular a bad pollster in general earlier.

[OneJ]

I'm pretty sure jfern is a Republican concern troll. Notice how he reflectively bashes every "establishment" Democrat over absolutely nothing

He is cut from the same cloth as those who think there is literally a party conspiracy to shut out viable progressive candidates in working class districts in favor of more moderate/centrist candidates in suburbia. He thinks the establishment would rather stay in the minority with centrists than win with progressives, which is silly, imo. If the party picked up the necessary 24 seats with a dozen or more progressives, the establishment would still have a lot of control. You don't need even close to a unanimously-centrist party to rule it in a centrist fashion. Not that I think this is what is happening, anyhow.

The party has made it clear that they'd rather lose with a neoliberal than win with a progressive. Hillary had a 67% not honest and trustworthy rating during the primary, and they decided to nominate her over someone who polled much better in the general election. And those progressives who get the nomination don't get a lot of help from their party: Feingold, Teachout, Quist, and so on. The DNC was money laundering $350k donations back to the Hillary campaign from the Hillary Victory Fund during the primary to get around the $2700 donation limit, since that's nothing for Hillary's fat cat donors. The establishment has worked hard to the contempt of progressives.

lol