GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

is there a better thread?

anyway, seems like GA is really competetive these days.


Democrats cry foul as House Republicans redraw district lines
http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/democrats-cry-foul-house-republicans-redraw-district-lines/sOOXVi3vMCWJCB7gpAntTN/

[ApatheticAustrian]

especially since those states are known to be more populist-friendly (at least theoretically and historically) than GA.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Nearly all attacks on Ossoff for getting money from outside the district are funded from outside the district
https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/854119608659439616

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is going to be a super-boring night and then we need two wait nearly 2 months.....

[ApatheticAustrian]

sorry for silly questions but....is this county especially important like the big one in kansas or just the first one?

[ApatheticAustrian]

sorry for silly questions but....is this county especially important like the big one in kansas or just the first one?

There are only three counties in this district (or, rather, partially in this district). Fulton is ~50% of the district, while DeKalb (the one partially reporting) and Cobb are around 25% each. DeKalb is the most Democratic-friendly while Cobb is the most Republican-friendly and Fulton is pretty evenly split. Going in more detail than that is not that helpful.

thanks so much, easy to understand like that.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Still early vote guys, don't overreact.

yes, but a higher number of EV than expected.

well, could just mean the EV is now a bigger number of boters than in the past but still...

[ApatheticAustrian]

ossoff is going to do better than thought anyway, the question is only if it is good enough.

[ApatheticAustrian]

If Ossoff's numbers keep dropping like this as Election Day vote rolls in, he actually might end up below 40%.

He's losing about a quarter point per precinct. Obviously not all precincts are the same size, though. Told you this was going to be fun
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/854501522096484354

[ApatheticAustrian]

(R)CP

sure but....trende was still one of the best, maybe THE best in 2016.

following him informs one pretty good without much BS.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Most of the vote coming in is from Cobb County, most heavily GOP County.
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/854502992225210369



Now 29/43 DeKalb precincts are in, and Ossoff (D) down to 58% in DeKalb. That is short of what Ossoff needs.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/854503492328804354

[ApatheticAustrian]

About 20% of E-Day precincts in. Ossoff at 57%, but most of friendly DeKalb in. Fulton still just earlies #GA06

Friendly for who?

ossoff friendly.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It looks like GOP enthusiasm for Trump (or against Democrats) is as strong as ever.  I think it would be a mistake to assume it'll be any weaker in the midterms.

this is highly misleading, since there was no pro-trump enthusiasm in this district to start with, otherwise this seat wouldn't be interesting at all.

more correctly: there would be still just enough nose-holders to save a seat narrowly.

[ApatheticAustrian]

(R)CP

sure but....trende was still one of the best, maybe THE best in 2016.

following him informs one pretty good without much BS.

Do you think his extrapolation here to Ossoff dropping to 40 is a reasoned analysis?

ofc not, this was just trolling the "super early vite expectation extrapolate audience" as his next tweet suggest, i just bungled including it at first.

[ApatheticAustrian]

why the hell is the game-breaking monster district taking so long?

we first got a pro-dem bias, now we get punched by a pro-rep bias but what is the middle thinking?

[ApatheticAustrian]

If he is short, he'll likely be at 48%, not at 42%, as many assumed -- and that is a huge difference.
https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/854505273943363584

[ApatheticAustrian]

Ossoff appears to still be ahead of benchmarks in Fulton and Cobb, but behind in DeKalb, which is the most Dem-leaning part of #GA06.
https://twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/854507442390130688

[ApatheticAustrian]

i don't get the desperation anyway.

this is an example for a district which hates trump proportionally and was ripe for a well-funded contender to be conquered even without trump ont he ballot.

this is fascinating for many many other seats.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Of note, Democrat Christine Triebsch is currently winning Judson Hill's v red state senate seat.
https://twitter.com/ec_schneider/status/854504680696795136

[ApatheticAustrian]

those fulton numbers are just meh.......

hope they suddenly jump to 50% or so.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Ossoff rapidly running out of places to keep him above 50% in #ga06
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/854512006166085636

Now thinking Ossoff will end up somewhere between 44% and 48%.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/854512227260526592

[ApatheticAustrian]

In the end, no surprise.

statistically it is a surprise, just not enough to push the coup through.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Cobb County dump, now mostly in.

are they just waiting for one country to be finished before releasing the next?

[ApatheticAustrian]

some polls had Osoff between 44-48 so...

yeah and that fact is a surprise. means trump's bad luck rubs off.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Looks like Ossoff's percentages are starting to line up almost precisely with Clinton in 2016. This is good for Handel but bad for Trump.
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/854514360986763268