GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[JJC]

Hey guys. I've been playing with the EV numbers and projected election day turnout, and this is what I came up with:

Early Votes:
No Party (60,000) – 65% Ossoff
GOP (50,000) – 88% Handel
Dem (30,000) – 99% Ossoff

EV Totals (140,000):
Handel – 65,300
Ossoff – 74,700
———————

Election Day Turnout (110,000 exp):
Handel (62,700) 57%
Ossoff (47,300) 43%
———————

Election Day Votes:
I think we will see an overall robust turnout for this election. I never really bought into the ‘cannibalization’ theories. When early voting is high, election day voting tends to be high too. I think we’ll see overall turnout to exceed 250,000. I’m guessing high and projecting election day voters will hit 110,000.

All Votes Cast (250,000 exp):
Handel (128,000) 51.2%
Ossoff (122,000) 48.8%


Note:
Cobb county - the GOP's best county - had relatively low EV returns as compared to other counties.

Nov.,2016 Total/ April,2017 Total Vote/ June,2017 Early Vote
Cobb 97,500/ 61,100/ 28,000
Dekalb 72,200/ 44,400/ 32,400
Fulton 156,300/ 86,800/ 80,000

As you can see, Cobb hasn't even reached 50% yet. Apparently, there were only two polling places open, while others had six or more open. If so, that (may) bode well for Handel. The early vote numbers already look descent for her. I’ve been messing around with the numbers, and even in the rosiest scenario for Ossoff (15% GOP crossover support and 70% of ‘no party’), Handel still remains within ~10-15k votes of him.

If so, then she would need to win about 57-60% of the election day vote with a 90-100k turnout. Both of those things seem very doable, especially with Cobb having very little early voters.

And keep in mind, this is Ossoff’s rosiest picture and the race is still a razor-thin tossup. I don’t actually believe he will nab 70% of ‘no party’ voters – He will probably be closer to 60% than 70%. And I doubt he’ll get 15% of GOP support – more likely 10-12%. If so, then Handel only needs to nab about 55% of the election day vote to win.

Of course, that's all assuming that Cobb county had low early vote turnout due to a lack of polling places, rather than a lack of enthusiasm. We’ll find out tomorrow.

[JJC]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

[JJC]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

As far as I see it, Cobb has no reason to be more motivated for Handel than they were in the first round when they had more choices. If they didn't come out early for her (a straightforward choice if they were motivated to vote for her), then they might not come out at all--noting that those "banked votes" are proportional to the overall share of the vote that county might comprise in the end.

That may be the case. We'll see tomorrow.

[JJC]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6! 

Yeah that sounds like typical GOP incompetent campaigning. sigh

[JJC]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

There's a difference between being right coincidentally and actually being right. If I correctly calculate the odds of a quarter landing on heads three times in a row, then that makes me right. If I correctly guess that the quarter will land on heads three times in a row, then that makes me lucky.

That's why there are so many "pollsters" in each election cycle who get bestowed with the title of "[one of the] most accurate pollsters of the election cycle", and then proceed to being hilariously wrong in future ones (just like they were in the past). In most cases, their methodologies haven't changed; they just lucked out. If a pollster predicts in every election that the results are going to be more GOP/DEM than other pollsters are showing, and the results in one election cycle do in fact end up being more GOP/DEM than most expected, then voila: "most accurate pollster"!

TL;DR: broken clock is right twice a day; Trafalgar is a sh**t pollster

I don't know about Trafalgar's past record but I do remember they employed a very unique methodology during 2016. They asked the standard 'who will you be voting for' and other questions. But then after that they would ask 'who do you think you neighbor will be voting for'. In every state they polled, Trump did about 5% better in the neighbor question than the original one.

Given the way Trump and his supporters were characterized in the media, it wouldn't have been surprising that they hid their preference...

[JJC]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

You wanna know what has been the best (pro-Republican) framing of the election I've heard so far?


Hollywood vs. Georgia. That is a very effective campaign theme because it plays to people's identities rather than try to win over their rationale (which is hard). It makes the race 'us vs them'. Are you a proud Georgian or an elitist hollywood type?

If there's one thing the GOP needs to learn from Trump it's how to drive the narrative in your favor. You may hate Trump but the guy is great at appealing to people's base emotions.

[JJC]

The shooting of Scalise is leading to a Handel surge.

Obama please drone

How bad are things for Republicans when they need attempted political assassinations to win red districts

Trump won it by 1%. Comparing it to Price's numbers who was a popular incumbent running against a 'some dude' token opposition is fallacious.

The only thing that tomorrow will show regardless of who wins is that public opinions have not changed in any meaningful way since the election.

[JJC]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

You wanna know what has been the best (pro-Republican) framing of the election I've heard so far?


Hollywood vs. Georgia. That is a very effective campaign theme because it plays to people's identities rather than try to win over their rationale (which is hard). It makes the race 'us vs them'. Are you a proud Georgian or an elitist hollywood type?

If there's one thing the GOP needs to learn from Trump it's how to drive the narrative in your favor. You may hate Trump but the guy is great at appealing to people's base emotions.

Trump is indeed great at heaping out low IQ red meat with a touch of latent racism for the GOP base.

Only could Republican voters believe a guy who is an Emmy nominated Hollywood reality TV star who actively courted celebrities and models

Yawn.

The democratic party's entire existence has devolved into identity politics and 'othering' against people they disagree with. They certainly don't have a platform of ideas anymore.

Hell, 50% of their entire political lexicon now consists of 'racism/sexism/homophobia/xenophobia/transphobia/nazi's!'.

Okay. Whatever.

[JJC]

My final Prediction
Handel 52%
Ossoff 48%