GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Tintrlvr]

I wouldn't say it is impossible given that this district is pretty much ground zero for anti-Trump Republicans and actually only voted for Trump 48.3-46.8 over Clinton but seems unlikely given the historical Republican margins (e.g., 60.8-37.5 Romney over Obama). Still, could end up like Gottheimer vs. Garrett (which was similarly narrowly Trump with historically somewhat larger Republican margins, though not nearly as large as GA-06), especially if the Republicans choose the wrong candidate, which I think is a real risk in a jungle primary.

If he does win, I am much more confident in a big Democratic wave in 2018.

[Tintrlvr]

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

Pretty good result for Ossoff, all told. Clout had such awful crosstabs last time that it's hard to put much stock in their polling, though.

[Tintrlvr]

New poll from Clout Research (R):

Ossoff (D) - 41%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 16%

All GOP candidates combined = 48%. The site this links to is pretty slow at the moment.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/03/20/ossoff-expands-lead-georgia-special-election/
http://zpolitics.com/exclusive-poll-ossoff-strengthens-lead-gop-candidates-battle-runoff/?utm_medium=email

Here's the link directly to that poll: https://www.scribd.com/document/342481175/GA-06-Clout-Research-R-for-ZPolitics-March-2017

The second choice numbers are:

Slotin (D) - 34%
Handel (R) - 16%
Gray (R) - 12%
Moody (R) - 9%
Ossoff (D) - 6%

Trump's approval is:

49% Excellent/Good
50% Fair/Poor

I think some of the 49% Republican voters would defect to Ossoff in the run-off if they feel that their candidate is too/not Trumpian.

Based on this poll, that seems to be the case. I really wish a different pollster surveyed the race though.

I didn't realize there was another Dem in this poll getting 3%. That makes it look even better for Ossoff.

[Tintrlvr]

With the I-85 debacle I think it may expose a larger enthusiasm gap. Ossoff has a good chance at reaching 50% if Democrats stay energized and GOP voters are more concerned with new incoming traffic patterns than who their representative is.  

Would D's not also be affected by the traffic changes, or are their voters concentrated in areas less affected by it?

I was wondering this too. Wouldn't the collapse disproportionately affect Democratic voters living in the Atlanta suburbs?

The whole district is in the Atlanta suburbs.

I think what he is saying is that it's hard to concentrate on two political issues at once, and Rs, who are less enthusiastic about Congressional elections right now, may devote more mental energy to I-85 while Ds, who are fired up about Congressional elections, keep more of their focus. Seems like a stretch to me, but could have a very marginal effect. Also true that bad things are often blamed on a nebulous establishment, regardless of whose fault they actually are, so could hurt the Rs a tiny amount (but, again, only on the extreme margins).

[Tintrlvr]

Apparently there is a debate with all 18 candidates, its basically 17 vs. 1. Don't know who thought this format was a good idea.

There are two or three other Democrats also, just all very obscure. And I think it's more likely the Republicans attack each other; they're fighting for a spot in the run-off right now, while Ossoff's first round score only matters if he gets to 50%.

[Tintrlvr]

Ossoff the dark horse candidate 2020?

Cute though this is, he won't be old enough to run for President in 2020.

[Tintrlvr]

Polls in special elections usually aren't much worse than for regular elections for the same office. Polls had Scott Brown beating Coakley after all.

That was a statewide election. Polling of individual districts has always been pretty unreliable, even in general elections.

Yes, House polls can be individually noisy, but special election House polls aren't much more noisy than regular House polls. That's my point.

And polling for regular House elections is notoriously terrible, so I don't see where that gets us.

[Tintrlvr]

I just saw on Facebook that I-20 buckled and had to be closed, at least partially, in DeKalb County.  We will see if they can fix it before tomorrow.

I-20 isn't in or particularly close to this district, so it's irrelevant.

[Tintrlvr]

I was under the impression that Sandy Springs was a Republican-leaning city considering it's history. Is it more a swing city now?

I believe it is now more of a swing city, but in any case they were referring to a specific precinct in Sandy Springs that is strongly Democratic rather than the city as a whole.

[Tintrlvr]

One of the issues without turnout in a jungle is that it may or may not be enough to get over the 50 mark.

If this was the runoff, it would be a concern re the sandy precincts. The question is whether the turnout disparities can improve ossof's margin by 6-7 points.

And also whether potentially lower information Democratic voters who wouldn't ordinarily vote in midterms/specials are aware enough to vote for Ossoff and not one of the other Democrats on the ballot.

[Tintrlvr]

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If true and repeated across the district, this is over and Ossoff wins without a run-off easily. 50% of election day-only votes in a Trump precinct means at least 55% of votes overall.

[Tintrlvr]

sorry for silly questions but....is this county especially important like the big one in kansas or just the first one?

There are only three counties in this district (or, rather, partially in this district). Fulton is ~50% of the district, while DeKalb (the one partially reporting) and Cobb are around 25% each. DeKalb is the most Democratic-friendly while Cobb is the most Republican-friendly and Fulton is pretty evenly split. Going in more detail than that is not that helpful.

[Tintrlvr]

Handel seems to be reasonably solid for second if there is a runoff at this point. She's about even with Hill in Cobb with Moody and Gray way behind, while she is also about even with Moody in DeKalb with Hill and Gray way behind. And she's from Fulton, so should do best there (as will Gray; Hill is from Cobb but is still in third without Fulton in so is definitely out of the runoff). She might get third everywhere but second overall.

[Tintrlvr]

Can't believe only 4% have reported.

Early votes don't count. 4% of ED votes are reporting.

[Tintrlvr]

Can't believe only 4% have reported.

I know, right?

I WANT MORE VOTES

CNN's live monitor says over 30% is reporting?
FAKE news always getting me way too excited

It is over 30%, taking into account EV.

CNN is just guessing what % of overall votes are EV (and probably way underestimating). There's no good way to report a percent in when you have early voting.

[Tintrlvr]

NYT says Fulton now 16% reporting, Ossoff dropped to 55.3% there.

Per @Bencjacobs, those were 19 precincts in far north Fulton (very Republican territory).

Aka the former Milton County which regularly tries to secede from Fulton so Republican country clubs don't have to pay taxes for black people.

Is that true? I've been hearing this from some Georgia friends. I hope that is not true.

This is true. The only mitigating fact is that Milton County was once a separate county, about 80 years ago, that went bankrupt and was absorbed into Fulton County to cover its debts.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milton_County,_Georgia

There was another county that was merged into Fulton at the same time, but strangely there is no statewide effort to recreate it within the Georgia GOP. Surely that has nothing to do with the fact that today it is majority black.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_County,_Georgia

[Tintrlvr]

Worth noting that non-Ossoff Dems are at about 1% together right now. It's conceivable that the vote for all Ds combined will be greater than the vote for all Rs combined even with the runoff happening. (Independents are together only at about 0.1%, so Ossoff would need to be at 49% or so for that to happen.)

[Tintrlvr]

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.

I've watched hardcore Gingrich/Santorum voters jump to Romney in a heartbeat, usually starting with a caveat like "Mitt's a good guy" and ending with "but Reagan said never attack another Republican."

Uniting behind the nominee is a natural Republican tradition. I was attacked quite angrily on social media by some of these Republican grannies for voting for Gary Johnson in 2012, for example. Even hardcore Trump voters were against him mounting an independent campaign and were prepared to hold their nose again for Jeb if they had too. It really is quite fascinating how strong Reagan's legacy is among Republicans. It is a precedent-setter for future generations, I suspect.

Repasting my runoff poll comment for discussion:

Osoff wins 51-49%. He needs just 3% from his 48.1% (with all precincts reporting) to win. The GOP will coalesce around Handel but it's clear at this point that the district has swung sharply away from the GOP since 2012 and disgusted Atlanta suburban voters are breaking Democratic heavily.

Given that suburban educated Republicans are the weakest part of Trump's coalition and given most of them are still infuriated at the President, I would say that Ossoff keeps his 48% and picks up a handful of Atlanta suburban voters that allow him to eke out the win.

Eventually, this district will become strongly Democratic at some point between the Trump - Pence era. Republicans are on borrowed time with this educated Atlanta suburbs with a strong grouping of minority voters.

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

EDIT: Expect the winning Democratic President of 2024 to take 55-58% of the vote in this district, if the lines remain the same.

My guess is this district gets chopped into pieces before Georgia Republicans allow for that to happen. Wouldn't be to impossible to see 4 congressional districts (6, 7, 9, & 11) start in the northern Atlanta Metro area before baconmandering up into the Northeast corner of the state.

I'm certainly mistaken, but I for some reason remember that being exactly the case when Gingrich first ran. I might be confusing the maps though.

Yup, the 6th was south of Atlanta then, making up a lot of what is now the Southern part of the metro (I don't think it was as much then). They then split his district in three, pulling the more Republican suburban areas into rural Dem areas, and built a new 6th out of the very Republican areas of the North Metro as a vote sink. He then moved to the new district a barely won a primary in the new district (like only a percentage point or 2). Crazy to think how different the 90's to today may have been if he would have lost that primary.

The Old 6th:

Pretty shocking how different Clayton County was then, too. Can you imagine a Republican winning it now!? Obviously would also be a shock for a Dem to win those rural counties, but that story is well told.

[Tintrlvr]

FWIW, I haven't heard any Handel radio ads since the primary, but Ossoff's have continued without a break (the same as before, I haven't heard any new ones yet).

Presumably this is because Ossoff knew he would either win outright (and not need the rest of the money in his campaign coffers so not care as much about reserving time being a waste) or be in a runoff, so reserving time after the primary made sense. Whereas Handel was not certain to make the runoff and would have been wasting money and potentially going into debt if she reserved time for post-runoff and then didn't make the runoff. So not entirely a matter of money/organization.

[Tintrlvr]

"We should be investing everywhere! 50-state strategy! Why are we not funding winnable races?"

"But don't invest where I don't like the voters because they don't fit my preconceived notions of who should be voting for Democrats."

[Tintrlvr]

Georgia 32nd senate district runoff is today. Judson Hill abandoned it to for his failed and pathetic attempt at winning Georgia 6th house of reps. This will be an easy GOP hold, but I will still watch it.

If anyone's interested, an AJC article on this runoff: http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/runoff-today-cobb-fulton-for-georgia-senate-district/z2nH6mZnVY3x8xckbfd3rO/.

I agree that this should be an easy GOP hold, but if the margin is in single digits it probably bodes well for Ossoff next month.

It's not going to be single digits. A 15-point margin is possible.

[Tintrlvr]

How do we know from the NYT map that those precincts only reported early votes? I do not see anything on the NYT website that would indicate this.

[Tintrlvr]

Fulton County Department of Elections is suddenly changing voting locations for a dozen precincts in advance of the June 20 run-off. When asked why, their answer was "unforeseen circumstances".

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For the record, the April 18 partisan breakdown of these combined precincts was 55.3% GOP, 44.7% Dem.

Freedom Fighters!

Voter suppression is voter suppression. The only solace is that the good guys aren't victims for once...and its still very wrong.

There is no solace in less people voting, especially in an off year election where there are less voters anyway. They're picking someone to represent them for like a year and a half, not just a change in the shade of red or blue on a map of house districts.

Also, they've known about this election for a while. (1) Why would the locations have "scheduled events" on election day when they knew when the election was and (2) why would they only announce the changes now. It's not like the first round was yesterday; it was five weeks ago. How were these changes "unforeseen" (unless this is only being done to suppress voter turnout).

If they were really trying to suppress voter turnout, there are precincts that are a lot more Republican than these to relocate. They could have come up with a dozen precincts in Fulton County that voted 65% or more for Republican candidates on April 18. The fact that these are slightly more Republican than the district as a whole (just 4% more - 55% vs. 51%) is well within the range of pure coincidence. Seems much more like incompetence.

Edit: Same concept with the DeKalb County board of elections' incompetence with having the early voting locations outside the district for most of early voting in the first round. Clearly they were not trying to suppress the Democratic vote, but they probably did so through incompetence. And that likely had more effect than this does.

[Tintrlvr]

The breakdown is apparently:
Cobb....10,058 18.3%
DeKalb.13,818 25.1%
Fulton...31,125 56.6%
That is big time trouble for Handel is Dekalb runs far ahead of Cobb

Part of it is that in the first round, dekalb had like one early vote location.

True, but, either way, Ossoff only needs a small improvement from the first round to be over 50%, which more early voting in DeKalb County could definitely give him. That said, tea leaves from early voting remain problematic for forecasting.

[Tintrlvr]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

Cobb portion actually dropping, surprisingly. That's -0.4 for Cobb and +0.4 for Fulton since yesterday (no change for DeKalb). Pretty surprising. I'd be shocked if the Cobb portion of the early vote ends up under 20%, but maybe.