GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Bacon King]

If Ossoff wins in the special election he'll have no problem winning this district again in 2018. Ossoff's biggest risk in 2018 would be the GAGOP gerrymandering the seat out from under him - such a hypothetical gerrymander probably wouldn't look very pretty but it would do its job by putting Ossoff in an unwinnable position.

You think it'd be insane for the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade just to kick out one guy, but ICYMI they are literally in the middle of redrawing the State House map just because 2 out of the 180 seats have Democratic office-holders even though they were drawn for Republicans. They're so insistent on getting rid of those two Democrats they're literally redrawing the whole map to do it

[Bacon King]

If Sen. Johnny Isakson resigns or dies due to his health problems, the GA GOP primary in 2018, 2020, or 2022 could be between Paul Broun, Handel, and Jack Kingston.

I could definitely see all three of them running to replace Deal and/or Isakson but they will be facing stiff competition from the next generation of up-and-coming Georgia Republicans - Casey Cagle, Brian Kemp, Mark Butler, any of the newer Congressmen, etc.

[Bacon King]

AKA why the GOP tries to undermine early voting:

I was going to say, "what the hell Dekalb County" but it looks like they got their act together and as of today now have an early voting location open within the district

Also for the last week of early voting, Cobb County will have a second location open - in the southernmost Cobb portion of the district, which actually has a significant minority population.

[Bacon King]

The current trends are actually making it seem possible that Ossof might be more likely to win a run-off than the first round. The narrative so far has been that if he doesn't pull off an upset win in the primary, he'll lose 6-8% in the run-off. That could obviously still happen, but the confidence people have been assigning to that scenario is looking increasingly suspect. A run-off might be a lot closer than people are expecting.

You're exactly right - most people aren't considering the circumstances of a runoff that would actually benefit Ossoff.

The families in this wealthy suburban district have tons of sons and daughters attending university outside of the district - and often outside of the state entirely. They'll all be coming home for the summer - and importantly, most will be returning home with several weeks to spare before the runoff's registration deadline! Ossoff's would be able to lock down tens of thousands of new young adult voters for the runoff, especially if he makes a dedicated GOTV outreach to these kids. He would have no problem doing so, given his campaign's ample resources.

Also, if y'all think Ossoff's fundraising hauls are impressive now, there's going to be an insane wave of cash coming in once Democratic activists/donors have a specific Republican to oppose/vilify

[Bacon King]

Virginia is right - his sudden policy ""pivot"" isn't going to change Trump's approvals in this district. They might like his new direction or some of the new things he's doing but they're still not going to look upon him more favorably

[Bacon King]

My gut call is still Handel in third, even if polls are showing her up. I don't think name recognition is particularly relevant here - the people who bother voting in a special election are already self-selected to be motivated, engaged, and highly informed voters.

Also with all these polls showing Ossoff polling in the mid-to-upper-fourties in the runoff, I'm pessimistically preparing myself to be completely disappointed - remember that undecided Georgians always break R bigly

[Bacon King]

update: watching tv right now I can confirm THE REPUBLICANS ARE ATTACKING EACH OTHER BIG LEAGUE

First there was an ad attacking Jon Ossoff for being a "tax and spend liberal". But then the message got muddled...

Second was a Dan Moody ad that went very negative against Karen Handel, calling her a "tax and spend liberal"

After that was a Club for Growth ad (who support Bob Gray) attacking both Moody and Handel, calling them "tax and spend liberals"

Now, during a second commercial break, there's a campaign ad from Gray attacking Handel, followed by a nice and friendly positive and on-message ad from Jon Ossoff!

[Bacon King]

As a resident of the Atlanta metro I just want to point out how hard it would be for anyone in the district to miss this election. I have seen more ads from Ossoff and his Republican opponents in the past month than I saw from every candidate for everything combined throughout 2016. One doesn't exactly have to be highly informed/enthusiastic to know there's an election going on right now

[Bacon King]

last second ass-pull prediction

Ossoff: 54%
Hill: 13%
Gray: 11%
Handel: 10%
Moody: 8%
others: 5%

[Bacon King]

look guys the GA SoS website is amazing and updating faster than DDHQ or any other chumps

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/

[Bacon King]

Campaigns always release internal polls for a reason. Ossoff+1 sends the perfect message to potential activists/donors: "WOW GUYS WE ARE IN THE LEAD THIS IS SO AWESOME BUT JESUS LOOK HOW CLOSE IT IS SO Y'ALL BETTER SEND US SOME CASH MONEY RIGHT THE HELL NOW"

It hits the perfect spot, building optimism without anyone getting complacent

[Bacon King]

it's so silly that we still have different runoff rules for state and federal races

[Bacon King]

Is this damn thing still going on?

The polls close in 45 and a half hours.

And not a minute too soon.

And I say that as an Unapologetic political Junkie.

It's been a long runoff. There was no reason for it to be two months.

Until recently Georgia runoffs were only one month after the general election (and this is still the case for state elections)

The courts however ruled that such a small delay was illegal. Federal law says that states must send finalized election ballots to overseas military voters something like 6 or 7 weeks prior to any election to federal office, which is impossible to do when a runoff election is only a month after a general election.

Georgia kept dragging its feet until the courts gave up and told the state they were moving the date for Georgia's federal election runoffs (not state, because they weren't covered in the lawsuit). The state decided on a full two month runoff period because anything shorter would mean November runoffs would occur too close to Christmas.

Interestingly, all the other states with general election runoffs meet the Federal requirements by giving overseas military voters a sort of instant runoff ballot - they vote for their preferred candidate and then rank all the others. If their candidate is eliminated, their runoff vote goes to whichever remaining candidate they ranked higher. One can only assume that Georgia does it differently due to sheer incompetence.