GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[LabourJersey]

New poll of possible match ups have Ossoff beating Handel 42-41 an Gray 44-42 http://m.dailykos.com/stories/2017/3/24/1646914/-As-a-new-poll-gives-Jon-Ossoff-a-runoff-lead-the-GOP-drops-another-1-1-million-on-ads

So it's a toss-up then. I still think undecideds are going to break for the Republican (unless there is some awful gaffe or they become too tied to Trump), but Ossoff has enough cash to keep himself very competitive against any Republican

[LabourJersey]

Josh Kraushaar speculates that an Ossoff win would do wonders for D recruitment in similar seats. (TX-07, KS-03, CA-45, NJ-11 namely).

Agreed--even a close loss there would still suggest that suburban GOP seats are moving away from the Republicans and Trump, which is going to lead to a lot more top-tier House candidates for Democrats compared to '16, '14 or '12.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

So what you're telling me is that Republican voters are vampires and only vote when the sun is obscured?

Ha no basically rain and snow means less democrats while republicans stay fairly the same

You do realize that this is the era of Trump, right? The Democrats all want a win desperately.

Heck, hundreds of thousands braved the chance of bad weather for the women's march in January. Democrats are fired up, regardless of whatever outdated studies you cite happen to say.

[LabourJersey]

Progressives need to focus on preventing Northam from winning in VA, these house races are unwinnable.

They can walk and chew gum at the same time.

Why are people acting as if the Democratic Party has just one big bag of money and one battalion of volunteers? The $8million Ossoff got came from a viewers of Daily Kos who have been energized to fight against Trump, and typically didn't donate before. Many people who never volunteered for the Democrats were canvassing in GA-06 and remotely for Ossoff.

I think this economy of political scarcity that some people talk about holds the Democrats back. The Republicans fight every battle, Why shouldn't Democrats?

[LabourJersey]

I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.

Why is RI a toss up? I can guess explanations for most of the other choices here, but short of some mass migration of minorities from RI I doubt it will become a toss up in the 30s