GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[TheSaint250]

Reasons I don't think Jon Ossoff will win:

1. Unified Republican field after the primary

2. (Just a prediction) Lower turnout

I have to say that I'm surprised he's doing so well.

[TheSaint250]

The important question for today:

Does Estes's less-than-10% victory in KS-04 mean Ossoff has a greater chance to take GA-06?

Personally, I would say maybe slightly since the districts are not really connected to each other, even with some momentum.  I would've thought the media would've been saying last night put GA-06 and MT-AL, not to mention the entire House, in more of a tossup position, but no one really did.

[TheSaint250]

WE WANT RESULTS AND WE WANT THEM NOW.

CAN I GET A HELL YEA FROM ATLASERS?

HELL YEAH

[TheSaint250]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

[TheSaint250]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

Pretty sensible prediction, imo.

Thanks

[TheSaint250]

What would you say Ossoff needs tonight for 50/50 odds in the runoff?

48%-49% of the vote

[TheSaint250]

When are more votes projected to come in?

[TheSaint250]

3% in according to NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6

[TheSaint250]

I'm watching NY Times.  The graphics always get me XD

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6

[TheSaint250]

Some more DeKalb numbers (ED) just came in. Now:

Jon Ossoff (Democratic)    62.2%   33,302
Karen Handel (Republican)    14.6%   7,812
Dan Moody (Republican)    8.6%   4,603
Bob Gray (Republican)    5.9%   3,172
Judson Hill (Republican)    5.4%   2,908

The election day numbers pushed him up. He was at 62% on EV alone.

He's down to 61.5% on the NY Times.

On DDHQ he's at 62.2% with identical numbers.

I'd trust NY Times more (no, not because they have Ossoff at a lower percentage)

[TheSaint250]

I'm starting to wonder if Ossoff will do better than we all thought or if this is actually just too early for us to be focusing on this.

[TheSaint250]

Not enough Election Day voting to come to any conclusions.

OK.  That's what I was thinking.

[TheSaint250]

NY Times updated: Ossoff dropped a tiny bit to 60.6%.  He's going down as the night goes on (not that big of a shocker due to early vote vs. election day vote)

[TheSaint250]

This feels different than Kansas.

It seems kind of the same to me.  The Democrat seems to be doing better than expected but many still predict the Republican to win.  The main difference is Kansas, despite being a W, was a pathetic little W that many didn't see coming.  We all knew this race would be like this with Ossoff so close to 50% and being very competitive.

[TheSaint250]

Can't believe only 4% have reported.

I know, right?

I WANT MORE VOTES

[TheSaint250]

Can't believe only 4% have reported.

I know, right?

Why is rubio in your sig? Relative to him, even Walker is more populist. Do you consider Mccain a 'populist'?

No, I'm pretty anti-McCain.  I was really upset when he said Rand Paul was working for Putin.  He's nothing close to a populist in my opinion.

I like Walker a lot as well.  He's probably tied with Rubio as my favorite candidate for 2024.  I liked Rubio a lot, though, in the 2016 election and volunteered on his Senate campaign this past year.  Some of my beliefs don't match some of his, but I like his message, and many high-profile Republicans aren't as moderate and Trump-style populist as I would hope for.  Rubio or Walker would be fine with me

[TheSaint250]

NY Times updated: 9% of precincts reporting.

Ossoff is at 57.8%.  handel is pulling ahead of the others with 15.2%.

[TheSaint250]

Kind of surprised that Handel is doing this well.  I thought that final Clout poll was good news for Gray (yes, I know Clout isn't all that reliable).

[TheSaint250]

I've been wondering this, and I wanted to know:

How would Ossoff's beliefs be defined as?  Moderate, liberal, or progressive?  And please explain why.

Also, when I mean liberal, I mean in the middle of moderate and Elizabeth Warren-style progressive.

[TheSaint250]

I've been wondering this, and I wanted to know:

How would Ossoff's beliefs be defined as?  Moderate, liberal, or progressive?  And please explain why.

Also, when I mean liberal, I mean in the middle of moderate and Elizabeth Warren-style progressive.

Without a track record it's hard to be sure.  His ads have a very bipartisan message that, as a centrist, I found appealing.  If I lived in the 6th, I'd have voted for him.

Yeah, I checked his website about what he thinks about the economy, and his was somewhat vague, except for on minimum wage and equal pay.

[TheSaint250]

I feel like within the next two vote reports (if that makes sense), Ossoff will be below 50%.

[TheSaint250]

23% of precincts reporting:

Ossoff: 55.6%
Handel: 16.4%
Moody: 8.5%
Gray: 8.3%
Hill: 7.8%

[TheSaint250]

Down to 55%. Is it happening?

It seems pretty well-accepted that a runoff is almost unavoidable.  It's just by how much Ossoff loses is the question...

[TheSaint250]

Ossoff seems to be holding well for now.  I guess it'll be a few more vote-number dumps before he falls below 50%.

Gray is taking 3rd, though.

[TheSaint250]

This is what David Jolly, former Rep from Florida, posted on Twitter tonight:

"Regardless of whether #GA06 goes to runoff, every GOP Mem of Congress tonight is wondering if they should take that university job back home"

He seems a little...I don't even know how to describe that.