GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Klartext89]

Who is Jon Ossoff and why is he playing Star Wars like I did when I was 7?

[Klartext89]

If Nate Cohn is saying it looks bad for the GOP, then I'm absoluetly relaxed. This guy is the most patrisan heck, his credibility is not even close to Zero, it's in negative territory. Hope he's still counting the votes of Hillarys massive lead in North Carolina.

All in all, of course the Dems are starting better, there's more enthusiasm on their side. But it isn't important at which day you're voting, that's what these idiots like Cohn never get...

[Klartext89]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

If Nate Cohn thinks it looks well for the Dems, you guys should be really worried :-D

[Klartext89]

Given the amount of butthurtness of the Dem base, they won't believe the Fulton result which will put Ossoff way under 50... These computer problems will again led to Russia nonsense. But ok, more to joke for us.

All in all, the Dems and their media can spin  as long as they want, losing a Trump +1  District with approximately 6 to 8 points means loses in the House. No way to be afraid of.

[Klartext89]

Given the amount of butthurtness of the Dem base, they won't believe the Fulton result which will put Ossoff way under 50... These computer problems will again led to Russia nonsense. But ok, more to joke for us.

Who said that

Go to twitter, the amount of sh**t coming from their accounts is frightening...

[Klartext89]

Very bad News for Democrats. If they can't win with a highly pushed guy with $ 10m spending in a Trump+1 district, then there's no way for them to win back the House.

Also it clearly shows that the Rasmussen poll with an appr. even job approval is way more realistic than the D+15 Fantasy polls. If Trump would be at 40% approval, the GOP candidates wouldn't get 51-52% of the vote in such a district.

I'm very optimistic for the Runoff, reading that Dem donors hesitate to burn more Money, well ;-)

[Klartext89]

Getting 48% in the primary is a very encouriging sign.

To concern trolls: remember that the republicans won this district 61-38 last year. The fact that the Democrats got 48% in an R+8 district is a good sign.

SPIN SPIN SPIN

[Klartext89]

Getting 48% in the primary is a very encouriging sign.

To concern trolls: remember that the republicans won this district 61-38 last year. The fact that the Democrats got 48% in an R+8 district is a good sign.

There's 2 months left and plenty of time for Handel to coalition-build. 48% in a mere run-off won't matter so much if it all becomes a blowout come the big one.

There's already a Republican coalition in this district. She shouldn't have to build one.

lol @ Klartext whining about spin when his previous post was pulling numbers out of his ass based on Rasmussen polls and the results here tonight.

Truth hurts?

[Klartext89]

What were the 2016 Presidential results in that district again ?

Did Hillary win it, considering she won virtually all of Atlanta ?

Trump won by a point. So Ossoff didn't exactly run better than Hillary.

And that's the deciding point which simply proves me right (whether Holmes likes it or not): The GOP did better in a special election (in which the opposition always overperformes) than Trump did. There's nothing like an anti-Trump wave. Only in your dreams.

[Klartext89]

Because from my experience with run offs in France, all rightwing candidates won't be totally combined. She will get a vast majority of them but 2-3-4-5 points will likely end up to Ossoff.

What stimulus do rightwingers have to vote for solid left-winger Ossoff in run-off? even that 2-3-4-5%?

Because this is how run offs work, the frontrunner is he has a massive big over the second one, he always gets some additional points out of nowhere.

Because you simply live in phantasy land and want it to be so, but sad for you smoltchanov is right ;-)

[Klartext89]

Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.

I'm sorry but this level of reality denying and fantasy land is only amusing me, nothing more.

The truth is that we have a 50/50 district going 51/49 GOP in a special election which always is favorable to the Opposition. I explained why a week ago in the Kansas thread.

So, there's nothing for Dems to celebrate and nothing for the GOP to be scared of. If the Dems can't flip 50/50 districts, they will not even come close of taking the House.

And no, I'm feeling pretty damn miserable this morning (or meanwhile afternoon in Germany) but has nothing to do with politics, it's because of Soccer...

[Klartext89]

Klartext, it's cool you're feeling good this morning about Ossoff going to a runoff. As a gloom and doom Dem myself, I'm feeling pretty pumped about what happened and bullish on the runoff, and I'll tell you why.

Last November, the Republicans ran a Presidential candidate who was comically bad for this district and had no campaign apparatus, and he fell up to fifteen points behind recent Republican candidates for President and House. Remember, Romney won this district by over 20 points.

Last night, Republicans had the chance to vote for any of eleven candidates representing every possible position on the Republican spectrum. These were well known candidates with reputations, local connections, and machines they could turn on to churn out votes. And they, too, fell twenty points behind the margin past Republicans got, barely outpacing a single Generic Democrat with no district ties and no machine other than the Democratic tsunami which spontaneously arose behind his candidacy.

Historically it can take 10-20 years for flukish Presidential results to translate downballot. Look at all the D congressmen in the House who held on for 30 years after Reagan swept their districts in 1980.

You can celebrate, and maybe you will be proven right, but the well of liberal tears for you to quaff is dry this morning. We're feeling pretty damn good.

I'm sorry but this level of reality denying and fantasy land is only amusing me, nothing more.

The truth is that we have a 50/50 district going 51/49 GOP in a special election which always is favorable to the Opposition. I explained why a week ago in the Kansas thread.

So, there's nothing for Dems to celebrate and nothing for the GOP to be scared of. If the Dems can't flip 50/50 districts, they will not even come close of taking the House.

And no, I'm feeling pretty damn miserable this morning (or meanwhile afternoon in Germany) but has nothing to do with politics, it's because of Soccer...

Not a 50/50 district, R+9 district:

There you see the vulnerability of the Cook PVI. It was won in November by ONE point and that's the state of the district we are looking at now.