GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Rjjr77]

Also, considering that most Republicans under 30 are extremely socially awkward basement-dwelling Anime and sci-fi fans, is nerd-shaming really such a smart strategy?

I don't think that's a real good portrayal of republicans under 30...

[Rjjr77]

Also, considering that most Republicans under 30 are extremely socially awkward basement-dwelling Anime and sci-fi fans, is nerd-shaming really such a smart strategy?

You post on Atlas Forum; you're really in no position to be calling anyone a socially awkward nerd.

Au contraire, who better to assess whether someone is in fact a socially awkward nerd than a socially awkward nerd?

Also, considering that most Republicans under 30 are extremely socially awkward basement-dwelling Anime and sci-fi fans, is nerd-shaming really such a smart strategy?

I don't think that's a real good portrayal of republicans under 30...

Well that description certainly fits Trump's most vocal supporters, at least in cyberspace, and people who basically fit  that description are the reason Trump did so much better with White Millennials than McCain or Romney did. The very religious, children of rich kids, and Southern Frat Boys and Sorority Girls support Trump too, but they've been strongly Republican for decades, and thus their being such isn't particularly remarkable or interesting.

It's not just southern fraternity folks, fraternities in general are mor conservative, while there's a new group of internet troll type trump supporters, the majority of young republicans don't fit your description at all.

[Rjjr77]

I thought most frat boys are white liberals like Chris Murphy...

Williams college doesn't have fraternities

[Rjjr77]

You can't guarantee a united Republican field after the runoff, or even that everyone who voted R in the jungle primary will vote for the eventual Republican candidate.

You can't guarantee that it won't happen or everyone who voted D in the primary will vote in the runoff

[Rjjr77]

I feel like Ossoff might just surprise everybody and get over 50% of the vote in the jungle primary. Perfect storm would have to happen though.

This will not happen.

[Rjjr77]

First day early voting almost always trends hard democrat, everywhere. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, and look at early vote numbers as a whole at the end.

[Rjjr77]

First day early voting almost always trends hard democrat, everywhere. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, and look at early vote numbers as a whole at the end.

Generally yes. But Democrats are strongest on Fridays and weekends, which is usually when early voting begins. I'd wait to see how this weekend looks like.

Democrats are stronger ev period, and always on the first day.

[Rjjr77]

Alyssa Milano and Christopher Gorham (Don't feel bad, I also had to look up who he was) are volunteering for the Ossoff campaign, driving people to the polls.

Republicans should just give up now IMHO

Because people love being told how to vote by "celebrities"

[Rjjr77]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

This is purely conjecture. There is nothing to suggest previous non voters showing up, this race had the highest turnout of any congressional in Georgia in 2016...

[Rjjr77]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

That dislike to like ratio though

Here's what the Republicans don't seem to realize about this election - Ossoff's strong numbers don't come from a bunch of Republicans thinking "meh, maybe I'll vote for the Democrat this time," but previous non-voters showing up in droves while Republicans feel disheartened. Videos like this will only make that worse by getting Democrats to rally around their guy, while not giving Republicans any good alternative. That like-dislike ratio is a perfect example of this. If they really want to hurt Ossoff's chances, they'd be better off just handing the money over to the individual Republican campaigns and giving their voters something to get excited about.

This is purely conjecture. There is nothing to suggest previous non voters showing up, this race had the highest turnout of any congressional in Georgia in 2016...

Both Nate Cohn and Michael McDonald have first time/non-registered voters as a big chunk of the turnout

Early vote turnout** early vote numbers are not good predictors for how a race breaks down, especially this early.

Edit- your also of the assumption that all of these first time voters are voting Ossoff, it's really a worthless exercise to be breaking down these numbers, Ossoff isn't going to get 50% on the run off unless turnout is crazy low.

[Rjjr77]

Again, early voting party preference is just not predictive of final totals.
Also waaaay too many assumptions on here that unaffiliated and new registrants are auto Ossoff supporters.

If Ossoff gets 50+1 I'll be the most shocked person in history.

[Rjjr77]

The early vote in 2016 in this district was R+20. Even if/when the Republicans take the lead tomorrow, on the last day of early vote, they will still be far below the advantage they had last year.

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If trump were running for congress he'd be in trouble...

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

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40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

So what you're telling me is that Republican voters are vampires and only vote when the sun is obscured?

Ha no basically rain and snow means less democrats while republicans stay fairly the same

[Rjjr77]

Hasn't weather impacting voter turnout by partisanship been widely discredited?

Opposite, it was actually proven. I can't remember the study but id guess 8-10 years ago an academic study (had to be in JOP since thats what I used to read at the time) proved it.

[Rjjr77]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/853052281792671748

You must be logged in to read this quote.

40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday as well. Should be interesting.

Wow that's actually good for Ossoff, relatively speaking of course. R's were expected to pass D's today.

historically republicans vote in the rain.

Two things:
1.) The lower election day turnout, the higher the % of the electorate the (heavily Democratic) early vote is.
2.) Democrats are highly motivated, I wouldn't count on them staying home because of weather any more than Republicans.

Great theory, except the low turnout generally comes at the expense of democrats.

This is something that has actually been studied (I can't find the journal year off the top of my head but I'm sure it came from my old JOP subscription) The final conclusion was for every 1 inch of rain, republican vote share increases 2% and for every inch of snow it increases .5%

So what you're telling me is that Republican voters are vampires and only vote when the sun is obscured?

Ha no basically rain and snow means less democrats while republicans stay fairly the same

You do realize that this is the era of Trump, right? The Democrats all want a win desperately.

Heck, hundreds of thousands braved the chance of bad weather for the women's march in January. Democrats are fired up, regardless of whatever outdated studies you cite happen to say.

you can take the anecdotal evidence, I'll take the science.

[Rjjr77]

I think any "fair-weather" effects will be minimal in this district compared to the average; this CD has the highest median household income of any district in the South* and this is a special election, where enthusiasm for voting is going to be substantially higher than in your standard presidential (or even midterm) election.

*excludes TX and VA; not real Southern states anyway

special elections routinely feature lower voter enthusiasm, not higher. Turnout for this election is going to be below any presidential, and below the majority of midterms. Simply because it is out of the routine for average voters and voter fatigue.

I think the biggest misconception on this board is how everyone fails to understand how little the average voter actually cares. Yes i expect to see increased enthusiasm among the democrat base, but I dont expect it to translate into some insane turnout, just as I expect some decreased enthusiasm from the republican base, but not some crippling disappearance from the polls. When we, as political inclined people, get actively interested in smaller races we tend to project our passion on to the average voter.

[Rjjr77]

As a resident of the Atlanta metro I just want to point out how hard it would be for anyone in the district to miss this election. I have seen more ads from Ossoff and his Republican opponents in the past month than I saw from every candidate for everything combined throughout 2016. One doesn't exactly have to be highly informed/enthusiastic to know there's an election going on right now

you'd be surprised. and even if everyone knew (they dont) how many care? (so little).

around 42-50% of eligible voters don't vote.

[Rjjr77]

I think any "fair-weather" effects will be minimal in this district compared to the average; this CD has the highest median household income of any district in the South* and this is a special election, where enthusiasm for voting is going to be substantially higher than in your standard presidential (or even midterm) election.

*excludes TX and VA; not real Southern states anyway

special elections routinely feature lower voter enthusiasm, not higher. Turnout for this election is going to be below any presidential, and below the majority of midterms. Simply because it is out of the routine for average voters and voter fatigue.

I think the biggest misconception on this board is how everyone fails to understand how little the average voter actually cares. Yes i expect to see increased enthusiasm among the democrat base, but I dont expect it to translate into some insane turnout, just as I expect some decreased enthusiasm from the republican base, but not some crippling disappearance from the polls. When we, as political inclined people, get actively interested in smaller races we tend to project our passion on to the average voter.

The enthusiasm among the individuals who comprise likely voters for such an election certainly isn't lower than it would be in most higher-turnout elections, and the aggregate enthusiasm is definitely higher than the aggregate for a higher-turnout election...precisely because you don't have all of these casual voters participating who are only doing so because of the hype surrounding it.

You get tons of people who vote in presidential elections not because they're enthusiastic about it, but because there is a ton of media coverage and campaigning associated with it. The types who are likely to vote in low-turnout specials are always going to be enthusiastic, as they're the base of the base.

I suppose you could argue that this election may be more impacted than your standard special merely because of the amount of money, advertising and campaigning that has went into it (damnit Bacon King, you beat me to it in effect) and therefore turnout might be higher than under normal special election conditions, but I don't believe you can argue that likely special election voters are more likely to be impacted by bad weather than those who show up only once every four years.  

wow so you're creating a whole new term here? voter enthusiasm that only counts with enthusiastic voters?

There is no such thing as a "likely special election voter" because special elections have too many variables, are too rare, and the sample size is too small. They will utilize a likely voter model based on how active a voter has been in other races, but you've basically invented a new, non-quantifiable class of voters.

lets throw out all the anecdotal evidence (because it is anecdotal) and look at the facts of voter behavior.

1. Rain affects voter turnout (fact), and rain correlates with higher vote share for republicans (this is also a fact)

2. The around half of eligible voters do not vote (fact)

3. Turnout is lower in special elections than non-special elections (fact).

4. This district has a large republican voter registration advantage (fact).

So based on these we can state, a smaller number of voters are going to vote in this election, this district is mostly republican, so most likely republicans will garner the larger share of votes, and the average and apathetic voter doesn't care.

Looking at the above I would say, yes rain on election day is not good for Ossoff (they will need to keep pace with republican turnout on election day, the majority of people turning out are going to be republicans and they'll need to staunch the bleeding). Ossoff will need to turn out democrat leaning voters who you say are so enthusiastic, but haven't voted yet (bit of a conflict of human behavior?)  To keep pace with the republicans hes clearly going to have to turn out more of the average voter who "hasn't gotten around to voting yet" and "will do it later." Rain is not going to help his cause