GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[McGovernForPrez]

Sweating like a dog

Do they actually talk like this in private? That's some true believing.

Spooky "Big Labor" as if the labor movement hasn't been lying dead in a ditch since the late 70's.

[McGovernForPrez]

Do you see Democrats asking the Obamas, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, the Clintons, or anyone to campaign for Ossoff? Are the Clintons and the Obamas too "politically and personally damaged" to make an visit?

I feel like having Obama or Clinton campaign there, would only remind Republican voters to get out and vote against the politicians they hate. Bernie is a great guy to have in places like Montana, but I can't imagine him being popular in Georgia suburb.

[McGovernForPrez]

Also waaaay too many assumptions on here that unaffiliated and new registrants are auto Ossoff supporters.

From what I've heard most of the new registrants are more likely to be younger minorities, so I think it's fair to assume a majority of the new registrants are gonna be voting for Ossof. Otherwise yeah, I don't trust early voting very much.

[McGovernForPrez]

Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatives turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

That's empirically wrong. The incumbent presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections, Democrats included. Dem's made gains in 2006 with Bush and picked up house seats in '82 '86 and '90. This is well known fact of U.S. elections.

[McGovernForPrez]

Dropped $500 on Ossoff on Predictit

Of he loses, he's dead to me

That's the craziest bet since my Leicester vs. Atletico Madrid bet today.

I dropped 15€ for a Atletico first half lead, followed by a Leicester win at the end of the game.

Quota is 1:51. If I win, I get 750€.



Anyway, good luck with your bet.

Pleaaaase 1 more goal for Leicester ...

I dropped money on an outright win for Ossoff. IMO if he doesn't outright win he doesn't win at all. He'll miss out on a ton of the previous enthusiasm he had and nobody likes voting twice. If Republicans vote like its a primary he should win. Good luck on all of y'all's bets.

[McGovernForPrez]

Feel my wrath. I am MARTY from MONTANA and like a tree standing by the waterside, I shall not be moved by mondale's cretin behavior.

You're not even my most respected poster from Montana bro.

[McGovernForPrez]

NYT map with precincts: http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6

[McGovernForPrez]

DeKalb is also the one part of the district where Dems can squeeze higher turnout numbers in ED voting since there weren't many early voting locations there. Very good news so far.

[McGovernForPrez]

Most of the remaining Cobb areas appear to be very favorable to Ossoff. Not counting a win out yet.

[McGovernForPrez]

A lot of the remaining Cobb precincts should go to Ossoff by very large margins so I don't think things can be ruled out yet. This isn't KS-04. Ossoff isn't guaranteed to keep falling here.

[McGovernForPrez]

Something seems off about Cobb. It says that they finished dumping all the E-day votes but there are some precincts whose E-day votes haven't changed from what their early vote totals were. I refuse to believe that there were no E-day voters there so it's very strange as to why it didn't update.

[McGovernForPrez]

Is there a chance Ossoff calls for a recount if things stay tight? I'm sure he'd like to win outright if he could.

[McGovernForPrez]

Is there a chance Ossoff calls for a recount if things stay tight? I'm sure he'd like to win outright if he could.

Ossoff can't ask for a recount. GA law for recount margins is based on closeness of candidates, not closeness to certain thresholds.

What if they're trimming votes here and there to make it so that Ossoff is just below 50. /conspiracy

To be honest, there are a few precincts in Cobb county that are largely Democratic precincts showing less than 10% of the 2016 vote. This is despite the fact that all of Cobb's precincts have supposedly reported in. Are these precincts actually somehow a part of Fulton County?

[McGovernForPrez]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

[McGovernForPrez]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

[McGovernForPrez]

How do we know from the NYT map that those precincts only reported early votes? I do not see anything on the NYT website that would indicate this.

Sorry I guess not everybody was watching on E-day. I can confirm that those places were early vote only. The results there came in with the rest of the early results. Look at the 2016 turnout levels and compare them to the ones on the Ossof map. If they included the E-day numbers that would mean a voter turnout less than 10% of the 2016 turnout. That's obviously ridiculous given the much higher numbers in the rest of the district.

[McGovernForPrez]

But Democrats did perform well in the primary - in fact, iirc, they exceeded original expectations. Why would it be different now? He is clearly capable of getting very close to 50%+1 in a district that has traditionally been heavily Republican, so I don't see why it's that unlikely that he could get it exactly, or even a bit over.

+7 is probably too much to ask, but given the previous results, 0.01% - 1% isn't.

Democrats might've even won had there not been a strange mixup involving some of the voting machines in Cobb County. Voting machines were stolen in a few strong Democratic precincts so they only ever reported the early vote.

I did hear about the machines being stolen, but I never heard about it actually effecting the election. I'm not denying it, but if you could give a source or something, I'd love to read it. I'm just curious, that's all.

Well if you look at the NYT map here https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-special-election-district-6 you'll see that there are 4 precincts in Cobb county which only reported early votes. In 2016 Clinton got more than 4500 votes from those 4 precincts, they were majority Dem leaning precincts. Had the machines not have been stolen even 3000 votes may have tipped the scales. Can't say whether or not he's have won but it would've right down to the wire had it not happened.

You've got to do better than that.  How about posting the specific precincts and what the official returns from them are?  If you're talking about the incident described at http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/police-honored-for-swift-work-recovering-stolen-voting-equipment/aHfJCsd0UEaSEGl70EjKHL/, it had no effect on the actual vote count.

I'll also point out that Ossoff's official vote total was 92,673 out of 193,981 total cast.  It would be necessary to give Ossoff an additional 8,636 (with none for anyone else) for Ossoff to have received a majority.  (Source: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/67317/Web02-state/#/)

Don't get me wrong, I'm rooting for Ossoff in this race.  But the burden of proof is on the person who makes this claim; otherwise it's just another conspiracy theory.  Do you really believe that if this was really an issue that the Democratic party wouldn't have been litigating it to high heaven?

Unfortunately I'm not 100% on the details. I don't think it made a difference in the end as there doesn't seem to be enough votes, but for the numbers reported in these precincts to be true they would have to have something absurd like 10% of turnout.