GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Beet]

Handel: End Muslim Immigration

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Unfortunately 2016 proved that early voting can be over interpreted. Robby Mook made sure Hillary crushed the Florida early vote, but still got swamped on the Election Day vote. It's just like taking out a loan... You eventually have to pay it back.

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My prediction remains the same. Ossoff looks to be on track for about 45% in the first round, and maybe 47%-48% in the second round if things go well for him.

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I went to a phone bank for Ossoff recently, and the turnout was more than the average phone bank I saw last October for the presidential election, with a younger-skewing crowd. These people's activism would be better spent moving out of D.C., where their contribution to our 270,000 vote margin is meaningless.

[Beet]

Unfortunately 2016 proved that early voting can be over interpreted. Robby Mook made sure Hillary crushed the Florida early vote, but still got swamped on the Election Day vote. It's just like taking out a loan... You eventually have to pay it back.

But Hillary didn't really crush the early Florida vote but also presidential election vs special is apples to oranges

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-early-vote-2016_us_58200106e4b0e80b02cae01c

In North Carolina, 1.3 million Democrats voted early, compared to just 990,000 Republican.

Having been burned by stories / numbers like this, it's hard not to be skeptical.

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Go Ossoff!

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Nothing definite yet, bu I'm hearing rumors the Russians hacked Fulton county.

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A loss is a loss. More proof that the Democrats need to move to the center. This isn't Kenosha. A DLC Democrat like Zell Miller might've had a chance here.

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Calling for a move to the center after a series of losses is trolling now? I'm old enough to remember a time when it was common sense. The days of Tony Blair and Bill Clinton -- long gone now.

Ossoff is pro-choice, thinks banning Muslims is "unconstitutional", and opposes repealing Obamacare, all of which are probably unpopular positions. He is not a "moderate", which is what a district like this and KS and MT call for.

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Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

Why?

I don't get this either.  Ryan's favorability is way underwater (HuffPo's average is 33/47). 

This district is full of Romney/Ryan Republicans.

With a couple polls now, I think we can make a prediction:
Handel 51.5%
Ossoff 48.5%

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In less time than this stupid election has been dragging on, the UK Labour party with less money than Ossoff spent went from 20 points behind to losing by 2 and now ahead.

Yeah, plus they had to go through two terrorist attacks and somehow managed to avoid electing a raging Islamophobe. In one of them, three men with a giant truck and big knives managed to kill a massive death toll of eight people. On the other hand, their lack of guns to overthrow the government if it becomes tyrannical means Theresa May will turn into Joseph Stalin any day now, just like every other Prime Minister since Robert Walpole.

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In less time than this stupid election has been dragging on, the UK Labour party with less money than Ossoff spent went from 20 points behind to losing by 2 and now ahead.

Cool. We'll soon live in a world where both Prime Minister May and Representative Ossoff are a thing.

Obviously the person who won the second most amount of votes should be national leader. #Murica

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This mailer is the GOP's final salvo in GA-06. They have no policy agenda, just raw identity politics:

Lol, Rosie O'Donnell.

They are making the right move, tapping into Middle America's strong misogyny. If the GOP ran on that alone for the next few elections, they could win.

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Dumb question, but are they using paper ballots, or software? Is there any chance it could actually be hacked?

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Some disgusting RW troll group is putting out a last minute ad tying Ossoff to the Scalise shooting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7ZiddrkmI

This will backfire.  Holy sht.

Also, let's stop trusting decimals in polls.

Not with their target audience. The shooter was a man but all the faces in the ad are women. It's a smartly targeted ad tapping into GOP misogyny. Those who normally might sit this out but will come to oppose the likes of Pelosi. Very smart.

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I hate to take jfern' side on this one, but it's true that getting only rich suburban districts that swung heavily for Hillary wouldn't get the Democrats a majority even if Ossoff won, which he hasn't.

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^ What trash.

And I hate this "give him a chance" talking point. Not only was that not done with the previous president but why would he be given a chance when at no point since he has won has he tried to govern like he is president of all Americans. He has only doubled down on his extreme policies and shut all dissenting opinions out of conversation. So no, Trump's resistance will not give him a chance because he's made it clear he's not interested in any sort of compromise unless it is with other Republicans to dismantle Obama-era legislation.

Yes, I wake up every day giving him a chance, and every day I am disappointed.

[Beet]

It looks like the Scalise shooting will tip it to Handel. I'm revising my prediction from 50-50 to
51.5% Handel
48.5% Ossoff

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It looks like the Scalise shooting will tip it to Handel. I'm revising my prediction from 50-50 to
51.5% Handel
48.5% Ossoff

Landmark polled after the shooting and found no change.

But Ppolls has her in the lead, Trafalgar has her rising from behind to the lead, and another poll had her gaining. That's three polls that have her either gaining or in the lead.

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The problem is, the Democrats were using the early vote going heavily in their favor to argue that they were doing well, when in fact it was just cannibalizing their election day vote. It refers to the notion that the partisan balance of the early vote will tell us anything about the total result, as opposed to telling us that the partisan balance of the election day vote will simply be the opposite. It doesn't matter that the campaign doesn't have to worry about the voter changing their mind if their supporters aren't in a majority to begin with. The whole obsession with the early vote is a gigantic red herring, IMO.