GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Person Man]

Fulton County Department of Elections is suddenly changing voting locations for a dozen precincts in advance of the June 20 run-off. When asked why, their answer was "unforeseen circumstances".

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For the record, the April 18 partisan breakdown of these combined precincts was 55.3% GOP, 44.7% Dem.

Freedom Fighters!

Voter suppression is voter suppression. The only solace is that the good guys aren't victims for once...and its still very wrong.

[Person Man]

Miss Enormous Tentacles is not going to win. It's important to remember that Ossoff over performed polling in the first round.

It's also important to remember that this is a tossup, and anybody who claims to know a definite and airtight result has had one line too many. This is Tilt D at best, and Tilt R at the worst. That is why I think this will be a close 52-48 for Handel, BUT I am not exclusively and definately calling it for her. This is very much in play, and either side could win.

Thanks for the concern. It is duly noted.

Anything more than more than Handel over 51.0% would mean that the Democratic Party is done as a major political power in the short term and anything above 51.0% Ossoff would mean congress is done baring the unforeseen.

[Person Man]

2nd Amendment people...

[Person Man]

Whats the rules for recounts?

[Person Man]

With rounding, Ossoff is once again at 50% and Handel has stalled at 48%. I'd say Ossoff is on track to win 52-48.

At least he should avoid a recount. But like I said, if he can't even get a recount(lose by less than 1) the Democrats officially have a "brand problem" like the GOP did in 08/09. If tge opposite is true, the Republicans are officially ruing Trump.

[Person Man]

I'm pretty sure jfern is a Republican concern troll. Notice how he reflectively bashes every "establishment" Democrat over absolutely nothing

He is cut from the same cloth as those who think there is literally a party conspiracy to shut out viable progressive candidates in working class districts in favor of more moderate/centrist candidates in suburbia. He thinks the establishment would rather stay in the minority with centrists than win with progressives, which is silly, imo. If the party picked up the necessary 24 seats with a dozen or more progressives, the establishment would still have a lot of control. You don't need even close to a unanimously-centrist party to rule it in a centrist fashion. Not that I think this is what is happening, anyhow.

There's a 2006 documentary called ''An Unreasonalble Man'' about the life of Ralph Nader where they interview former DNC officials (in reference to the 2000 election) who say that it's basically official policy at the DNC to ignore liberals and never answer to them.

Link (vid quality/sound is pretty lousy):

https://youtu.be/SKBut5e4iTs?t=4877

If true, this is how the Whigs stopped organizing. From what I can tell, they were divided between changing completely unacceptable but somewhat popular policy and just getting people elected that would just kind of give the other side a hard time. Eventually, the shannagans got so bad, the person they nominated won, stopped governing at all like a Whig, and the National party disavowed him. They eventually stopped winning elections after that and Whigs found coalition with more radical abolitionists and started the GOP.

[Person Man]

If he wins this year, Dems won't have a candidate in 2020 for Senate.  He would be at the top of the list.

What do you mean? If anything, him winning this year gives the Dems an amazing potential Senate candidate.

Agreed.

If he does well, I can see him running ifor President in 2024...but chances are, he turns out to be a LTC Paul Hackett type even if he wins here. He, too ran as a special congress candidate in a swingy R district after the Republicans won everything with half the country hating tgem.

[Person Man]

The Atlanta poll has been updated to Ossoff 49.7 to Handel's 48 http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/6th-district-poll-fewer-voters-undecided/534524963

IF its right, he just needs 15% of undecideds.

[Person Man]

Though Nate Cohn has been sending cryptic tweets that Handel will win

Example please?  The tweets I've seen seem to indicate he's really on the fence in this one.

He's saying that Handel will do better in the early vote this time around, even if Ossoff wins.

That seems obvious.  There were so many Republican candidates in the first round that many of their voters probably waited until Election Day to make their final choice.

They still needed to vote to stop Ossoff.

[Person Man]

^ What trash.

I'm concerned as a Dem that while his gloating is trashy, the core of it may be accurate, and this could make the difference for Handel.

If this new negative game is effective, how can we counter this "stop the Democrats" message?

[Person Man]

The latest polls are very mixed at least. Toss-up at best.

Ossoff's still ahead but can still lose if Democrats are really that toxic to the moat fence-sitting of voters. For example, I am guessing that undecideds broke 70% for Trump. Im guessing that if they split even, Hillary would have those 4 states that decided the election. If they broke the other way, she could have won Arizona and maybe North Carolina.

[Person Man]

Serious question: are negative ads, or ones that make baseless claims, likely to be less effective on a more educated electorate?  This is one of the most educated districts in the U.S.

I watched the debate, and Handel's constant referencing of SAN FRANCSICO struck me as tone-deaf and outdated. I wonder if voters know that the San Francisco of right-wing imagination no longer exists, since everyone making less than 500k has basically been expelled from the city and it's now all tech bros and rich foreigners.

A Republican party chair thinks that Scalise's shooting will give Handel the edge in the race.

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This may end up being true, but it's important to note that especially in a district like this one, the shooting won't make voters want to give Trump a blank check, and many of those who did vote for him were voting against Hillary Clinton rather than for Donald Trump. Also, looking at acts of political violence over the last few years (the Giffords Shooting, the Charleston Church Massacre, the various attacks on Muslims by right-wing extremists or Trump supporters) none seems to have had a permanent effect on political discourse: it might be that because violence and mass shootings happen so often now that they've been normalized. The Alexandria shooting wasn't particularly notable because it happened: it was notable because of who the victims were.

Or maybe people just expect boys to be boys now...

[Person Man]

New poll has Handel +1%

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DKE thinks this is a fake poll.

Its based on "unskewed" Google Surveys.

The polling average is now that if Ossoff should win or at least be able to ask for a recount (-1 to 3) unless people are lying. I wonder if there is some Limbaughian altRight or hard-right scheme to conspire to lie to pollsters to throw the other side off.

[Person Man]

comparisons?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_2nd_congressional_district_special_election,_2005

[Person Man]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

The only pollster to get MI,PA,WI right in 2016

They also had Trump +5 in Nevada.

I think it just pollster trying to have it both ways.

They are an R group. I guess if look at those four states we are talking about, it gives us a house effect of R+2 but they were accurate.

If Handel runs away with it, it will be because of the shooting. I guess these things do change things. There was a lot of pro-life terrorism just before the pro-choice movement had a big bump and as the bump subsided, it motivated pro-life people again.

[Person Man]

comparisons?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_2nd_congressional_district_special_election,_2005

This race is a pure tossup and I haz no idea who will win. I think we're living in a time where pollsters can't poll accurately anymore and data stiffs like Cohn and Enten send out cryptic tweets to keep their careers intact

The dumbest and wisest thing today.

[Person Man]

But seriously if Ossoff does lose what do dems do? He did everything right while Handel did so much wrong yet reps fell in line

Completely start over? We can't have a country where one party can't govern and the other can't win. But maybe this, too will pass.