GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Brittain33]

Early voting starts tomorrow!

[Brittain33]

Or better yet: Don't read too much into early voting in general. You'd think people would have learned this lesson after 2014 and 2016.

[Brittain33]

To avoid disappointment, I'm still going to assume for now that Ossoff will finish in the first round with mid 40s and lose the runoff by about 5 points. Hopefully I can be pleasantly surprised.

This. "Fool me twice.... won't get fooled again."

[Brittain33]

According to Cohn, significantly more Republicans showed up yesterday than in previous days. D46, R37. Sleeping giant may not stay asleep long enough for Ossoff, I worry.

[Brittain33]

What are the odds with all the atttention here we fall short and actually pull off a win in MT-AL?

Better then most realize. I actually like MT-AL better then this

This. Montana has a much longer history of elasticity than GA-6, which had none at all until last November's presidential election.

[Brittain33]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

It's different than what he represented in the 1980s, but the same territory he had in the 1990s.

[Brittain33]

R turnout nearly equaled D turnout. The best day yet for Rs; ridiculously bad for this district, but if this trend continues it will make it hard for Ossoff to hit 50.

[Brittain33]

Ossoff getting 50% on 4/18 would be about as shocking as Trump's winning the Presidency last year.

[Brittain33]

After KS-04 and the presidential election, I'm just going to assume most elections have a counting bias for Democrats early on and Republicans catching up later

Seriously. Has this always been a thing or just since 2016?

[Brittain33]

Opinion Savvy‏ @Opinion_Savvy
We're doing one last #GA06 poll for release tomorrow - looks like there's been some movement #gapol


Their last poll was Ossoff 40%, Handel 20%, Gray/Hill 10%, Moody 8%, Others 6%, Undecided 6%.

Great, so either Ossoff has dropped into the 30s or Handel is bleeding support to Gray zzzzz...

[Brittain33]

You have to think that every Republican who doesn't come in 2nd will want Ossoff to win the runoff so that they can have a shot at him in 2018 or 2020 rather than wait 20 years for Karen Handel to vacate the seat.

[Brittain33]

Trolling (and replies) deleted.

This thread should be home to wide-ranging conversation given the impact of and interest in this race. If you see posts that violate Forum guidelines or are pure trolling, please report.--Mod

[Brittain33]

It is "pouring buckets" in Sandy Springs.

[Brittain33]

Ossoff got 71% of EV in Dekalb vs. 57% for Clinton

[Brittain33]

Also--anyone getting weird Adware looking things on DDHQ?

Yes! Sketchy looking modal to update my Flash

[Brittain33]

This is just early voting folks, don't get too excited.

Yes, that 57% for Clinton wasn't EV but overall vote...

[Brittain33]

Also, everyone remember that EV in DeKalb was hamstrung by lack of voting locations.

[Brittain33]

If Ossoff's numbers keep dropping like this as Election Day vote rolls in, he actually might end up below 40%.

He's losing about a quarter point per precinct. Obviously not all precincts are the same size, though. Told you this was going to be fun
https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/854501522096484354

(R)CP

[Brittain33]

(R)CP

sure but....trende was still one of the best, maybe THE best in 2016.

following him informs one pretty good without much BS.

Do you think his extrapolation here to Ossoff dropping to 40 is a reasoned analysis?

[Brittain33]

I'm refreshing twitter on #GA06 and it's surprising how many Republicans are feasting on imaginary Democratic tears because Ossoff may have to go to a run-off in this district that's been Republican since 1980.

[Brittain33]

His vote also can only go down from the Early voting.

yep

Well, he just went up a small amount. It's going to vary a lot by the precincts that report.

[Brittain33]

Conservatrash gonna be trash.

The moderators really don't moderate around here, do they?

It helps to report posts. Unless I happen to be reading a thread, I don't proactively moderate (which may be why a second moderator was added to my boards.)

[Brittain33]

So with Cobb (almost) fully and DeKalb fully reported, Ossoff is running 1.6% ahead of Clinton in both counties. That's not 50%, but it's pretty damn good.

[Brittain33]

may i remind everyone that ossoff is 1,6% ahead of clinton in dekalb and still 1,7% ahead in cobb...

meaning, if ossoff is also up 2% in fultin, that coould - theoretically - be enough, eh?

I think that math still has him falling short of 50 by a significant if not big number.

[Brittain33]

Cobb at 96% now and Ossoff at 50.4%

meaning, ossoff HAS improved 1.5 points compared to clinton.

trump/clinton difference was about 1 point, eh?

Yes, but there's also the third party and non-votes from the Presidential race to account for. I haven't checked but it's likely the Republican field of 11 combined is getting a higher % of the vote than Trump.

(I just did a quick sum on NYT and it's 48.6 for the R field. That's... weak.)