GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Ronnie]

I wonder why Republicans have such a passionate hatred for Pelosi.  Is it because she was an extraordinarily competent Speaker representing the party they detest, that she is an empowered liberal woman, or both?

[Ronnie]

A Republican Super PAC just put out a new ad against Ossoff:

https://youtu.be/Xr4RYY7Mpw4

Looks like they are in kitchen sink mode.  Isn't it a bit ridiculous that they're portraying him as a window-shattering black bloc anarchist right after showing him in a goofy Han Solo costume?

[Ronnie]

Hmmm...

https://i.imgur.com/icC1G6d.png

That's quite a gender gap.  If Ossoff can fire up the high energy old Georgia women, and the men stay home, then we might actually have a shot!

[Ronnie]

Republicans absolutely crushed Dems today:

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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/851983941724721152

Not liking what I see.  Ossoff might not even hit 40% on the first ballot when push comes to shove.

[Ronnie]

Seriously, why haven't the other Dems dropped out at this point?  Are they trying to sabotage Ossoff?

[Ronnie]

I think Karen Handel is really undervalued on PredictIt.  Assuming she and Ossoff make the runoff, which seems likely, she'd be the heavy favorite (maybe 70+%...).  Is the prospect of Bob Gray upsetting her in the jungle holding back her numbers?

I'm considering making an investment, but I've already lost quite a bit of money on that website--around 300 dollars--so I think I'll pass.

[Ronnie]

So I've been exploring the ads that the candidates in this race have put out, and I'm really surprised that Boy Gray managed to fit every single black Republican in the sixth district into a single ad.  It must have taken a lot of work to find them all:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0YpLGWqime4

Also, is it just me, or does this Karen Handel attack ad resemble a horror movie trailer?  It's probably the cheesiest thing I've seen in a long time:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XFb8CAzvy_Y

[Ronnie]

Bob Gray seems like a moron. Hope he makes the runoff.

Be careful what you wish for.  I'd prefer a bland Republican establishment candidate over a far-right Trump yes-man any day.  It is possible that many candidates of the latter persuasion win in 2018 Republican primaries, making President Trump and potential future far-right Presidents more powerful than they otherwise would be.  A "Breitbart" caucus in congress would be an absolute nightmare.

[Ronnie]

Trump takes shots at Ossoff:

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https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/853964023846588420

[Ronnie]

Trump makes a robo call:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/854110507560783873/photo/1

[Ronnie]

I bet $10,000 on Ossoff winning.

You're lying.

[Ronnie]

Yeah, I'm not terribly optimistic.  If there were multiple reports that turnout is unusually low in heavily GOP precincts then it would be a different story.  Still, I think something like a 47% showing would be a lot better for Democratic morale than 41%.

[Ronnie]

My prediction:

-Ossoff won't hit 50% tonight (he will probably win about 43%-45% of the vote)
-Either Handel vs. Ossoff (what the polls have shown is most likely) or Gray vs. Ossoff for the runoff election
-Ossoff will lose the runoff by about 5%-7% of the vote

Pretty sensible prediction, imo.

[Ronnie]

Imagine if Ossoff got 49.98%.

Then he'd be pretty overwhelmingly likely to win the runoff.

[Ronnie]

Regardless of how this jungle primary ends up, my feeling from the results so far is that Democrats are angry AF, and that portends well for the midterms next year.

[Ronnie]

Guh, and I actually kind of had my hopes up for a little while!  Oh well.

[Ronnie]

It looks like GOP enthusiasm for Trump (or against Democrats) is as strong as ever.  I think it would be a mistake to assume it'll be any weaker in the midterms.

[Ronnie]

When (if) progressives ever take power, we need to tax areas like this out of existence.

We should probably de-gerrymander this district first...

[Ronnie]

(((Harry Enten)))‏Compte certifié @ForecasterEnten  1 minil y a 1 minute
Plus
 To sum up, this result is reasonably in-line w/ expectations. Sets up what shud be tight runoff. Handel/Ossoff will end up w/ terrible favs.

Republican attack ads: "Ossoff wants to drown little puppies!"

[Ronnie]

Is there a reason why everyone is digging Ossoff's grave? My initial prediction was 43% for him... then 45-46%, now it looks like he'll get around 48%. Is it that implausible that he could get 2% more than that in a run-off?

The outstanding territory isn't favorable for him to get over 50.

Yeah, but we also can't assume that every single Republican who voted this time will vote for Handel in the runoff.  The vast, vast majority will, but one or two percent could make the difference.

[Ronnie]

DDHQ showing some rare restraint in officially calling the race:

Decision Desk HQ‏ @DecisionDeskHQ
It is very, very, very, very likely that Jon Ossoff faces a runoff against Karen Handel in #GA06. Just waiting on a few precincts.

They're still traumatized by their premature projection in the 2016 MI Dem Primary.

[Ronnie]

2016 election results and the US constitution?

You do realize that the Supreme Court allowed states to redistrict as they see fit in LULAC v Perry?

You do realize that redistricting will be done after 2020 regardless, right?

If Dems don't take the governor's mansion in 2018, there's nothing stopping Republicans from gerrymandering the hell out of the district anyway.  R legislators will stop at nothing to ensure that they tilt the playing field in favor of Rs once they realize the state is slipping out of their grasp.  See: North Carolina Republican Party.

[Ronnie]

Nate Cohn says Ossoff will end up with around 47.7 percent.

[Ronnie]

As much as I would like to see Ossoff win over Handel, she will smash him with a margin of victory in the lower double digits.

One thing I have to give to people on the right is that, when the outcome of a primary or GE doesn't go perfectly for them, they usually suck it up and live to fight another day.  They don't whine, threaten to stay home, and/or wet their beds.  Just look at Breitbart comments if you don't believe me; hardly anyone is complaining about the fact that Handel won, even though she was the "establishment" candidate in the field.  If you want to give up without even putting up a fight, that's your prerogative, but it only makes the Republicans' goal of cementing their rule that much easier.  Quitters never win.

[Ronnie]

Progressives need to focus on preventing Northam from winning in VA, these house races are unwinnable.

They can walk and chew gum at the same time.