GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Is it any difference than a radio host?


Jason Lewis did manage to get elected to the house in spite of various controversial statements that would have angered both Democrats and Republicans.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.

Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.

There are few things that we can be certain of, but Mississippi not being a Democratic-leaning state in 13 years is one of them.  I kind of understand the argument for it being competitive in 2050 (even if I don't fully agree with it), but there is no way it is there in 2030.

The thing that makes MS so precarious is that it is wholly dependent on white block voting to keep it Republican. If MS whites voted as Republican as they do in neighboring states, it would be a lean Democratic state. There is also the factor that the bulk of those White Republicans are concentrated in the age bracket 65 and above. By 2030, half of those people will be gone. That means that the White Vote is going to naturally trend downward for the GOP over the next several years as 90% GOP Seniors are replaced with 50-50 Millenials starting to vote more frequently.

So 2030 is not at all unreasonable for it to be tilt Dem state.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.

Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.

I agree with this map's portrayal of the sunbelt. I disagree though with what it has happening in the North.

If the GOP recovers in Northern suburbs enough to make Illinois soften up, OH Safe and WI as Likely GOP, then PA is Likely GOP, MN is lean GOP, and IN is Safe GOP.


Underlying all of this is massive GOP margins in Northern rural counties. This spans the entirety of the region from ME to MN, and has been witnessed over multiple recent elections. If this comes to pass then baked into the coalition in these states is this massive rural support similar to what Trump got (or even more), augmented by higher support (higher than Romney even) in Northern Suburbs. That softens up New York to Likely Dem, NJ and CT to tilt Dem (especially if RI is tossup), Vermont to lean or Tilt Dem and of course that brings us to the 1,000 pound elephant in the room, New...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yea I don't think that Florida is going to trend like these other states, because of that wealthy skew of the retiree population.


Also, it is not so much that demographics equal destiny and Democrats will rule everything from here to the end of time. What happens is that you have a hostile demographic or generation coming through the pipeline, the Republicans then have to adapt to achieve a majority. The question then becomes which path requires them to adapt the least, because that is the path they will take. Right now, the Northern/Trump one is the answer.

We have actually seen this play out in both the macro and the micro levels. We have seen state's flip because of generation change opening the door, and the Republicans or Democrats rushing in to take full advantage causing the state to flip. The were generations of Georgians who would blow your brains out if you asked them to vote Republican. There was another one after that, which would largely vote for a yellow dog before voting for a Republican because of the New Deal and Great Depression. They would vote Republican sometimes (Reagan, Nixon etc) and the Silents even more so. Beginning with the boomers, you had a generation open to being heavily Republican and Republican Party moved aggressively to meet them. The end result is that GA began to shift heavily Republican in the 1990's, once they reached prime voting age.

The political map is constantly in an evolutionary state.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So the expectation of him getting a big bump from dissident Republicans didn't happen, at least so far.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't like the optics of winning GA-06 but not Montana

Democrats always troubled by what they were/are/becoming.