GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[RI]

Voters so far as really old and really white. I don't think Ossoff will even come close to 50% before a run-off.

[RI]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

He hasn't "verified;" he's modeled. Big difference.

[RI]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

He hasn't "verified;" he's modeled. Big difference.

No. As in he actually has interacted with "a lot" of these people on Twitter and verified against the voter rolls.

Uh huh...

[RI]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Cohn has verified "a lot of people who last voted in a Republican primary who are voting for Ossoff" on Twitter, so possibly. Clinton won ~17% of Republican primary voters in this district, so I'd say there's a decent chance Ossoff is getting at least 10% or more.

He hasn't "verified;" he's modeled. Big difference.

No. As in he actually has interacted with "a lot" of these people on Twitter and verified against the voter rolls.

Uh huh...

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn

Replying to @accommodatingly
Absolutely--I've even encountered many on Twitter who lasted voted in a GOP primary (verified it) and voted Clinton/will vote Ossoff
9:44 PM · Apr 7, 2017
4 RETWEETS
25 LIKES

Whatever dude. Doubt it if you want

Twitter does not comprise a representative nor notably large sample of such voters.

[RI]

Democrats had an advantage in early voting for 11 days, which suggests that most of their voters have already voted by now. There is also the fact that not every Republican showing up is voting for a Republican.

Basically, don't be surprised if Ossoff's winning the early vote, but he could very easily get shredded by election day vote.

[RI]

Polls in special elections usually aren't much worse than for regular elections for the same office. Polls had Scott Brown beating Coakley after all.

[RI]

Polls in special elections usually aren't much worse than for regular elections for the same office. Polls had Scott Brown beating Coakley after all.

That was a statewide election. Polling of individual districts has always been pretty unreliable, even in general elections.

Yes, House polls can be individually noisy, but special election House polls aren't much more noisy than regular House polls. That's my point.

[RI]

Yet the early vote is still much older, whiter, and more male than in 2016...

[RI]

I'm slightly worried these polls might be herding, at least among the GOP candidates.

[RI]

DDHQ will be doing a live precinct-level cartogram of the race tonight.

[RI]

Midterm level in Pleasantdale = 50% of 2016 vote

[RI]

What time does the poll close?

7pm est

Shortly afterwards many here will be freaking out when Ossoff has 60+% from the EV.

Or others freaking out if he's under 60% in the early vote...

[RI]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

The more relevant comparisons are to 2014 in KS and to the 2016 Presidential race in GA...

[RI]

Comparing a seat with a popular incumbent to an open seat is not particularly relevant.

[RI]

Comparing a seat with a popular incumbent to an open seat is not particularly relevant.

Treating Hillary's numbers as if they are the Democratic floor is laughable, but nice spin everyone.

Oh please, you're not doing any better.

[RI]

More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.

[RI]

More "voter suppression" BS or whatever...

Zero evidence that these supposed "voter suppression" laws actually have any impact on voting behavior.

Sure

First, I strongly question CCES-based studies, honestly. Second, that paper has an incredibly poor identification strategy. Such a shoddy attempt at a DID research design should be laughed out of the room; they don't even consider endogeneity once, nor do they attempt to match propensities or engage in some sort of discontinuity design. I couldn't include such a poor paper in my dissertation if I wanted to!

The simple fact is: there was zero difference in minority turnout in NC where these rules were enacted versus areas with similar demographics were they weren't.

[RI]

Even in an internal Ossoff hasn't gained a single point since the primary...

[RI]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Actually worse for Ossoff: 49.1-46.5. Landmark was most accurate pollster in first round, too.

[RI]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Actually worse for Ossoff: 49.1-46.5. Landmark was most accurate pollster in first round, too.

Decimal points are usually irrelevant.

Point is, if you round based on the raw margin, it's a 3 point lead whereas if you round based on what heatcharger posted, it's a 2 point lead.

[RI]

With the latest polls, I suspect Handel pulls it off