GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Amusing TV ad juxtaposition yesterday on Atlanta's CBS-46 during the NCAA tournament.  On two occasions there was a Moody ad followed almost immediately by an Ossoff ad.  These were the first GOP ads I've seen; Ossoff ads have been on a while.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The jungle primary is on April 18, right?

Yes, and the runoff will be June 20 if necessary (which will almost certainly be the case).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I feel like Ossoff might just surprise everybody and get over 50% of the vote in the jungle primary. Perfect storm would have to happen though.

This will not happen.

Agreed.  I think he'll be first in the jungle primary by a good margin, but don't have a good feel for who will finish second.  I'd guess Handel simply on the basis of name recognition, but who knows.  The runoff is anyone's guess; the result probably depends on how many outrageous things Trump does in the days leading up to it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Although demographic changes are moving the Sixth leftward, there should be no doubt that it's still an R-leaning district.  Don't forget that even Trump, a terrible fit for the district compared to most Republicans, still managed to carry it by a narrow margin.  Any of the other R candidates would have won it by 10.  Under normal circumstances, the chances of a D win in this special election would be practically zero, but the circumstances aren't normal.  With the anti-Trump energy as high as it is, Ossoff has a real chance.  He's far from a lock to win the runoff -- I'm not even sure he'll be the favorite -- but it's a realistic possibility.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Which Republican would be the strongest? Handel seems to be leading but she carries the career politician stigma. Gray looks like he is getting support from Trump's base. Not sure about Judson Hill but he seems like an establishment conservative that would probably do well in this district. Any idea about Moody?

Handel has an edge in name recognition.  Moody seems to have the largest presence in signs and ads on the R side, although Ossoff's exceed all of the R's put together.  That's just a subjective opinion from personal observation; I work in the Sixth, although I live in the Ninth.

This morning I heard an anti-Ossoff radio ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund attacking him as a liberal who will rubber-stamp Pelosi's agenda.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would Ossoff be the youngest member of Congress if he wins?

Looks like it.  I think the current youngest is Elise Stefanik of NY (age 32).  Ossoff is 30.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Judson Hill has raised $473K so far and has $113K on hand.  This is far behind Ossoff, but still an impressive amount for a crowded special election.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/02/hill-raises-nearly-500k-in-georgia-special-election-bid/

[GeorgiaModerate]

^^^ Better hope that all of those outstanding/likely Ossoff voters are pretty young...

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That age gap is unusually large.  But, that may explain why Georgia had a much bigger age gap than other states in 2016.  Plus, especially in a district like GA-6, youngs are probably mostly non-white.

No, whites are a majority in all age groups in the district except 0-4, 20-24, and 25-29.  In those three groups, whites are a large plurarity but not quite a majority.  Source: http://statisticalatlas.com/congressional-district/Georgia/District-6/Race-and-Ethnicity (a wonderful site for demographic information, btw.)

ETA: That's non-Hispanic whites.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff has raised $8.3M so far, which appears to be a record for Georgia elections to the U.S. House (all such elections, not just specials).  He has $2.1M on hand.  The average contribution size is $42.52.

http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ossoff-pulls-record-donations-for-georgia-special-election/MqGzLMjrzVRR8jE5YGs3rL/

[GeorgiaModerate]

The current trends are actually making it seem possible that Ossof might be more likely to win a run-off than the first round. The narrative so far has been that if he doesn't pull off an upset win in the primary, he'll lose 6-8% in the run-off. That could obviously still happen, but the confidence people have been assigning to that scenario is looking increasingly suspect. A run-off might be a lot closer than people are expecting.

You're exactly right - most people aren't considering the circumstances of a runoff that would actually benefit Ossoff.

The families in this wealthy suburban district have tons of sons and daughters attending university outside of the district - and often outside of the state entirely. They'll all be coming home for the summer - and importantly, most will be returning home with several weeks to spare before the runoff's registration deadline! Ossoff's would be able to lock down tens of thousands of new young adult voters for the runoff, especially if he makes a dedicated GOTV outreach to these kids. He would have no problem doing so, given his campaign's ample resources.

Also, if y'all think Ossoff's fundraising hauls are impressive now, there's going to be an insane wave of cash coming in once Democratic activists/donors have a specific Republican to oppose/vilify

Many of those types will have internships in cities around the country anyway this summer.  Plus, I highly doubt the rich (mainly white) young people from conservative families are going to go overwhelmingly for Ossoff (this demographic might be 60-40 R in a runoff, even if Ossoff would easily win the plurality in the first round).

I agree that they're unlikely to go overwhelmingly for Ossoff.  However, a substantial number of them will be for him; and with the current enthusiasm levels in this race, they're likely to be more motivated to actually go vote while they're home for the summer.  So I think in the end this group is likely to provide a net benefit for Ossoff, although perhaps a small one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Evan McMullin's getting involved in this race: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/07/a-georgia-special-election-candidate-turns-to-evan-mcmullin-for-help/

The candidate, David Abroms, hasn't gained much traction in the race so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am interested to see if it's Ossoff vs Handel what will happen cause Trump supporters on Twitter bash her as much as Ossoff

Handel has a radio ad up attacking Ossoff as a liberal who takes orders from Nancy Pelosi and worked for Al-Jazeera (among attacks on other candidates).

Ossoff's ads are very positive and talk about what he intends to do if elected, rather than attacking others.  Of course, that may change in the runoff when he only has one opponent to focus on.

[GeorgiaModerate]

  It would be funny if the the other three Democrat candidates who obviously aren't going to get many votes, somehow deny him the 50% margin, maybe if Ossoff is around 48 or 49%.

I'd give it way more chance than him reaching 50%.

My feeling is that he'll get around 46 or 47%.  (Of course, with my track record that means he'll either break 50 or be under 40.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats had an advantage in early voting for 11 days, which suggests that most of their voters have already voted by now. There is also the fact that not every Republican showing up is voting for a Republican.

But with this being a primary with multiple republican choices rather than a 1v1 you can assume 90%+ are

I think this is an unwarranted assumption for two reasons.  First and most important, "Republican primary voter" does NOT mean the same thing as "Republican".  Many local races in this area have only Republican candidates, so voting in the Republican primary is the only way to have a vote in those elections.  I have done this myself and know many other people who have.  There are also tactical voting considerations in some primaries that may cause a voter to choose the other party's primary.

Second, Republicans who are likely to cross over because they're not happy with their party (and there are many such at present) are likely to do so regardless of how many Republicans are on the ballot.  It's true that more Republican choices will probably mean fewer Ossoff crossovers, but I doubt this will have a huge effect.

Certainly a majority of the GOP primary voters are likely to vote for a Republican.  But to automatically assume that it will be 90%+ is to ignore the actual environment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After KS-04 and the presidential election, I'm just going to assume most elections have a counting bias for Democrats early on and Republicans catching up later

Seriously. Has this always been a thing or just since 2016?

Before the prevalence of early voting, it was the other way around.  There tended to be a Republican lean to counts early in the evening of Election Day.  Smaller precincts count faster than larger ones, so rural precincts (more of which are R leaning) tend to report faster than urban (more of which are D leaning).

Nowadays the early vote tends to get reported immediately, and Democrats have jumped on early voting more than Republicans, so the trend has reversed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The new poll seems in line with recent ones, if on the lower end of the range.  IIRC all the others have had Ossoff in the 40-43 range, so one result of 39 certainly isn't unreasonable. 

Unless the voter models are completely off (although that's a possibility, as we saw last November), Ossoff is almost certainly NOT going to win a majority on Tuesday.  I think he'll do a bit better than the polls have shown; let's say 46% +/-1%.  But getting to 50%+1 would be a real stretch from here. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

^ In that case, anything less than 46% support for all democrats combined should result in the head of the DCCC being fired.

Why?  Lots of people who disapproved of Trump still voted for him in November.  And Trump isn't on the ballot here.  It's easy for a Republican who thinks "Trump isn't a real Republican" to disapprove of him, but still like one of the many R candidates in this race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The AJC asked Gray, Hill, Handel, and Ossoff their views on several issues.  Worth a read.

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/leading-georgia-sixth-district-candidates-the-issues/4RC8bLUa5gK4dWgWhCCjFJ/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very likely that this turns into an Ossoff vs Handel runoff

Likely but I wouldn't say very likely, it's a special election so that is difficult to estimate. Many polls have different results for the 2nd/3rd place.

Never underestimate Karen Handel's ability to underperform.

True, but in this crowded field I think her name recognition gets her into the runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now, during a second commercial break, there's a campaign ad from Gray attacking Handel, followed by a nice and friendly positive and on-message ad from Jon Ossoff!

All the Ossoff ads I've seen or heard have had a very upbeat tone.  None of them have been negative, although that may change in the runoff when he has only one opponent.  It's been kind of refreshing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

Yeah, that ad is over the top.  Politifact examined it and rated it "Mostly False": http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/citing-jazeera-payments-ossoff-uses-selective-information/TvaQHx14pnT6Ri4OU8mJ8O/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Also, those Al Jazeera commercials are hilarious. A tight shot of the Arabic script logo and an ominous voice "You know what that means..."

Yeah, that ad is over the top.  Politifact examined it and rated it "Mostly False": http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/citing-jazeera-payments-ossoff-uses-selective-information/TvaQHx14pnT6Ri4OU8mJ8O/

A deeper dive on this from Jim Galloway, an excellent political reporter for the AJC.  Really interesting reading.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/jon-ossoff-and-al-jazeera-the-truth-is-far-more-interesting/

[GeorgiaModerate]

From Republican state senator Fran Millar at a GOP breakfast:

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/15/warring-republicans-try-to-unite-against-ossoff-in-georgias-sixth/

[GeorgiaModerate]

How can 1% of those that have already voted be undecided? UGH

They forgot who they voted for?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How come Handel is so unpopular in a district like this?

IMO her personality comes off as rather cold, which may put off some voters.  For more tangible reasons, her role in the episode with the Komen charity and Planned Parenthood a few years ago probably turned off quite a few female voters.