GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Holmes]

You can't guarantee a united Republican field after the runoff, or even that everyone who voted R in the jungle primary will vote for the eventual Republican candidate.

[Holmes]

That's a really big discrepancy.

[Holmes]

First day early voting almost always trends hard democrat, everywhere. Take those numbers with a grain of salt, and look at early vote numbers as a whole at the end.

Generally yes. But Democrats are strongest on Fridays and weekends, which is usually when early voting begins. I'd wait to see how this weekend looks like.

[Holmes]

This is the type of district that Trump would seriously accelerate trends, just like Obama did in Appalachian districts.

[Holmes]

That would be incredibly horrible for Republicans. I don't think he'll make it in the first round, but it's not like he has a lot of Democratic competition. Still, I think he'll need some soft R votes to reach 50%, and they have a lot of candidates to chosen from before even considering Ossoff.

[Holmes]

Also that quote makes no sense. "Ossoff might get 50% in a crowded primary but is unlikely to win the runoff." If anything he's more likely to get 50% in the runoff than the primary.

[Holmes]

That's a big jump among nonpartisans. Wherever they lean will decide this race.

[Holmes]

I can honestly say that person was not a potential vote for Ossoff either way.

[Holmes]

Based on turnout this week it seems Republicans are finally deciding on what candidate to vote for.

[Holmes]

Well in the first round they have a lot of options, so more likely than not they'll be voting for a Republican. But in the second round, who knows.

[Holmes]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

Well, yes. The Democrat party in Georgia passed a ruthless gerrymander in 1991 designed to target Mr. Gingrich.

Those villains.

[Holmes]

Sweating like a dog

Do they actually talk like this in private? That's some true believing.

[Holmes]

Like KS-04 could Ossoff do really well with rep voters?

Considering the demographics here vs. KS-04, I'd say yes. Especially since Hillary did in November. However with many different Republicans to choose from, I think it's unlikely they'll cross over as much in the first round as they would if it were one on one.

[Holmes]

I mean didn't Republicans have an 8% advantage in early votes in KS-04 and Thompson was at 60% in early returns? This district barely even compares on top of that because it's based on what party you voted for in your previous primary, so we don't know how many Rubio/Kasich -> Clinton voters are turning out so far.

[Holmes]

Wulfric is right. This is going to a runoff anyway. I think Ossoff is getting between 42-45% in the first round. It's a strong position heading into the runoff.

[Holmes]

Trump makes a robo call:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/854110507560783873/photo/1

Has someone told him he is not that liked in this district?

It's strange to claim that someone is, uh, not liked, in a district in which he gained a plurality of the vote.

Was Obama liked in, uh, Indiana?

[Holmes]

Dropped $500 on Ossoff on Predictit

Of he loses, he's dead to me

Is it for the runoff only or until the race is over? I can see his price shoot up at any little thing during the runoff, from a respectable showing tomorrow to a crappy poll showing him >50%, and that would be a good time to sell.

[Holmes]

What time does the poll close?

7pm est

Shortly afterwards many here will be freaking out when Ossoff has 60+% from the EV.

Probably not so much after last week but an especially good EV showing is always good. If it's a weak showing for Ossoff, then that's not a good sign.

[Holmes]

I was under the impression that Sandy Springs was a Republican-leaning city considering it's history. Is it more a swing city now?

[Holmes]

  I find it amazing that long lines could develop in that the congressional election is the only thing on the ballot, correct?  If that's right it shouldn't take long for people to get in and vote and be done, not like those California style ballot marathons that we enjoy so much.

There's probably less staff working the polls than a normal election.

[Holmes]

I'm hoping Ossoff gets over 50% for many reasons, but also because having to wait another two months for election day is agonizing.

American elections are too long, dammit.

two months is a bizarre time period, imo.

Why can't a runoff only be mere days/week after the jungle?

Georgia (I don't know about other states) is required to allow plenty of time for overseas military ballots to be received.

The 2008 Senate runoff was only a month later though. Was it because it was Christmas soon, then swearing in soon after?

[Holmes]

If Ossoff wins tonight, it won't be without good showing in Cobb and Fulton, but DeKalb will likely drag him across the finish line.

[Holmes]

Its funny thinking of all the outside money and celebrity money that is getting flushed down the toilet.

Republicans spent almost 2x more than Republicans here.

Dems got 8 mil (95% out of district) and every possible liberla hollywood actor/actress to descend on the district and are barely improving from the general election.

They did improve significantly from the 2016 House election. Which might be a better thing to compare this race to because it isn't a Presidential race.

[Holmes]

Is there a chance Ossoff calls for a recount if things stay tight? I'm sure he'd like to win outright if he could.

Ossoff can't ask for a recount. GA law for recount margins is based on closeness of candidates, not closeness to certain thresholds.

What if they're trimming votes here and there to make it so that Ossoff is just below 50. /conspiracy

[Holmes]

GA-06 is left of center!