GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Badger]

I agree that GA will go the way of VA, and this should happen very quickly. By 2030 or so, MS, LA and maybe NC could all lean D and TX and FL (and maybe SC) would be pure Tossups or lean D. The Democratic Party's base will be in the South.

Rhode Island and Delaware look random, and I can't see Illinois or New Mexico voting Republican on a presidential level unless the GOP makes significant inroads with Hispanics.  I also wouldn't put Georgia as safe D either, by any means.

There are few things that we can be certain of, but Mississippi not being a Democratic-leaning state in 13 years is one of them.  I kind of understand the argument for it being competitive in 2050 (even if I don't fully agree with it), but there is no way it is there in 2030.

The thing that makes MS so precarious is that it is wholly dependent on white block voting to keep it Republican. If MS whites voted as Republican as they do in neighboring states, it would be a lean Democratic state. There is also the factor that the bulk of those White Republicans are concentrated in the age bracket 65 and above. By 2030, half of those people will be gone. That means that the White Vote is going to naturally trend downward for the GOP over the next several years as 90% GOP Seniors are replaced with 50-50 Millenials starting to vote more frequently.

So 2030 is not at all unreasonable for it to be tilt Dem state.

That might be true if MS white millennials were voting 50-50, but the NY Times demographics calculator said they voted 86 or 88% (I can't remember which) for Romney in 2012.  White millennials as a whole voted for Trump, so they of course voted overwhelmingly for Trump in Mississippi of all places.  If it ever goes Democratic (apart from in a landslide), it will simply be because the black vote outvoted the white vote, which doesn't seem to be that close to happening yet, considering the 2016 results.  There is no NOVA or Atlanta that could anchor Mississippi to a rapid trend like Virginia and, possibly, Georgia.

I couldn't find exit polls showing breakdowns by age and race combined, but the NYT exit poll showed Democrats winning 18-29 year olds and 30-44 year olds in MS by 18 and 8 points respectively.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

Whether that's due to young whites not being so monolithically conservative as their elders or demographic shifts is a tomato-tomahto issue as either way it paints an optimistic future for state dems as actuarial tables play out, though I suspect it's the former.

[Badger]

^ Yes, if we assume Ossoff can't do any better among ED voters than he did in the jungle, which obviously isn't true.

Why would we assume he would do better among ED voters now compared to the primary? The handful of minor Democratic candidates and the equally small number of Republican primary voters whom would choose Ossoff over Handel? Serious question.

[Badger]

This is some painful stuff from Handel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgcDMYC27JM

So, seeing as Ossoff is presumably "Johnny" in this metaphor, Handel must be the Devil?

Erg. Cringeworthy.

[Badger]

Judging by the way the debate went, Ossoff definitely has a lead. Handel threw everything and the kitchen sink at him and he just shruged it off. I will give her credit that her question of "Who'ee you voting for Jon" was her most effective remark tonight. But that is due more to how terrible her performance and debate skills are.

What's this whole "Who are you voting for,  John?" thing? In their election? In the 2016 race?

Oh, lemme guess. For Speaker of the House?

[Badger]

Judging by the way the debate went, Ossoff definitely has a lead. Handel threw everything and the kitchen sink at him and he just shruged it off. I will give her credit that her question of "Who'ee you voting for Jon" was her most effective remark tonight. But that is due more to how terrible her performance and debate skills are.

What's this whole "Who are you voting for,  John?" thing? In their election? In the 2016 race?

Oh, lemme guess. For Speaker of the House?

No, it was a way of getting at his residency outside the district.  But he answered it forthrightly.

Heh. She should've followed up with a question about who he's voting for Speaker. If she's bound and determined to run against Nancy Pelosi, it's as good a segue as any.

[Badger]

Well, you can bet that Republicans are not going to run Handel against Ossoff again next year if he wins the runoff.

Which is probably good for Ossoff as IIRC the other primary candidates were particularly whackadoodle extreme, and Handel was considered the "moderate electable" one.

[Badger]

Well, you can bet that Republicans are not going to run Handel against Ossoff again next year if he wins the runoff.

Which is probably good for Ossoff as IIRC the other primary candidates were particularly whackadoodle extreme, and Handel was considered the "moderate electable" one.

Whoever thought Handel was electable clearly knew nothing about her.

True, but the others are reportedly worse is my point.

[Badger]

Is this damn thing still going on?

[Badger]

Is this damn thing still going on?

The polls close in 45 and a half hours.

And not a minute too soon.

And I say that as an Unapologetic political Junkie.