GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Umengus]

let's go for the runoff !

[Umengus]

Well this sucks if you are a Democrat...

No it doesn't.

yes it is. One hour ago, Osoff was going to win...

[Umengus]

Cobb (37% in)
Ossoff: 47%
538 goal: 43%

DeKalb (67% in)
Ossoff: 58%
538 goal: 60%

Fulton (16% in)
Ossoff: 55%
538 goal: 49%

the problem for osoff is that the next votes are ED votes.

[Umengus]

50.7% now.

ouch !

[Umengus]

Cobb (37% in)
Ossoff: 47%
538 goal: 43%

DeKalb (67% in)
Ossoff: 58%
538 goal: 60%

Fulton (16% in)
Ossoff: 55%
538 goal: 49%

the problem for osoff is that the next votes are ED votes.

Cobb: Ossoff at 42 % now...

[Umengus]

His vote also can only go down from the Early voting.

yep

[Umengus]

ossoff at 51 % with dekalb at... 95 % in.

[Umengus]

His vote also can only go down from the Early voting.

yep

Well, he just went up a small amount. It's going to vary a lot by the precincts that report.

because Dekalb. And the 0,2 % is very small...

[Umengus]

Ossoff rapidly running out of places to keep him above 50% in #ga06
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/854512006166085636

Now thinking Ossoff will end up somewhere between 44% and 48%.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/854512227260526592

In the end, no surprise.

[Umengus]

In the end, no surprise.

statistically it is a surprise, just not enough to push the coup through.

some polls had Osoff between 44-48 so...

[Umengus]

Dave Wasserman‏Compte certifié @Redistrict  26 sil y a 27 secondes
Plus
 Will Ossoff (D) finish tonight higher or lower than the 46.8% Clinton won in #GA06? I'm starting to think it could be...lower. It's close.

[Umengus]

The gop machine is going to unleash hell in next 2 months...

[Umengus]

Cobb at 96% now and Ossoff at 50.4%

meaning, ossoff HAS improved 1.5 points compared to clinton.

trump/clinton difference was about 1 point, eh?

and ? the goal is not to beat trump, the goal is to get 50%+

[Umengus]

Dave Wasserman‏Compte certifié @Redistrict  2 minil y a 2 minutes
Plus
 All 99 precincts remaining are in Cobb & Fulton, which should push Ossoff (D) considerably under 50%. But by how much?... #GA06

[Umengus]

(((Harry Enten)))‏Compte certifié @ForecasterEnten  1 minil y a 1 minute
Plus
 To sum up, this result is reasonably in-line w/ expectations. Sets up what shud be tight runoff. Handel/Ossoff will end up w/ terrible favs.

[Umengus]

and ? the goal is not to beat trump, the goal is to get 50%+

A goal is to get 50%+. That would have been amazing, and few people projected it here.

If he's scoring at 48 or 49%, that's a very good position to be in heading into the runoff. Better than the low 40s showing in the polls where he'd never make up the gap to 50.

you are right but 2 hours ago, expectations were that ossoff would win without runoff. And 2 months are an eternity in politics...

[Umengus]

We @DecisionDeskHQ apologize for slowness of the mules in bringing in remaining Fulton vote for #GA06. We'll bring more carrots next time.

[Umengus]

and ? the goal is not to beat trump, the goal is to get 50%+

A goal is to get 50%+. That would have been amazing, and few people projected it here.

If he's scoring at 48 or 49%, that's a very good position to be in heading into the runoff. Better than the low 40s showing in the polls where he'd never make up the gap to 50.

you are right but 2 hours ago, expectations were that ossoff would win without runoff. And 2 months are an eternity in politics...

That's patently false. The "expectations" were not he'd win OUTRIGHT. The expectations were a big shoulder shrug and the HOPE was he'd win.

not my impression... look at the previous pages on this thread...

[Umengus]

Decision Desk HQ‏Compte certifié @DecisionDeskHQ  39 sil y a 39 secondes
Plus
 Fulton went just over 60% in the early vote to Ossoff, dropped to 55% with some of the precincts reporting. #GA06

[Umengus]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

[Umengus]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

[Umengus]

If Dem candidates get more votes than total Repub candidates, wouldn't the Dem be favored in a runoff?

50/50.. don't forget that some voters are going to die... 2 months it's long...

Do you see Trump's situation improving over the next two months?

no but Ossoff is going to be demolished by the gop machine. This guy is a paper tiger.

I agree in theory that Ossoff shouldn't be a strong candidate, even if he has natural talent.

But when the national environment is heavily tilted against one party, those attacks don't tend to stick unless the candidate is a sad-sack like Busby in California. They haven't worked so far.

because republicans were infighting