GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[ajc0918]

It would be interesting to see Ossoff's name recognition in that poll. Karen Handel probably is widely known due to having previously held office. I think Trump's approval numbers are a little high for what I would expect in Ga-06.

[ajc0918]

I don't think Ossoff will win, but seeing him be in the 37-41% range with this many candidates in the race is encouraging. Obviously Republican voters will consolidate behind the winner but I think he has a narrow path if he turns out his voters.

In the run-off, assuming he makes it, I would expect an Ossoff voter to be more likely turn out than a Republican voter whose candidate lost. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out given that there are a lot more Republican voters whose first choice candidate lost than there will be for Democrats.

[ajc0918]

Any idea how independent voters will split? I don't think I have  seen any polling results by affiliation

[ajc0918]

Some demographic date on the first day EV: https://twitter.com/electproject/status/846551093081493505

[ajc0918]

@Nate_Cohn: "For what it's worth, day 2 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 55, R 32.
Over all, including abs, it's D 55, R 31, with 3372 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/846892024146018304

[ajc0918]

Which Republican would be the strongest? Handel seems to be leading but she carries the career politician stigma. Gray looks like he is getting support from Trump's base. Not sure about Judson Hill but he seems like an establishment conservative that would probably do well in this district. Any idea about Moody?

[ajc0918]

"Day 4 of in-person early voting in GA-6 is D 53, R 30
Over all, including absentees, D 55, R 29 with 6442 votes cast"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/847632669215150086

R vote as a % went down overall since yesterday. D remained steady. Given that the party numbers are based on which primary they have last voted in, do you think the 16% or so who haven't voted in either primary are more R or D?

[ajc0918]

"Noteworthy: early voters have been less white in every day of early voting, and non-D/R vote is most diverse--60% w, 10% a, 7% b, 4% h"

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/848207577917870080

Non-D/R voters seem to look more Dem leaning.

[ajc0918]

If Ossoff doesn't live in the district, how is he so popular there? Anyway, Ossoff could be a Southern rising star post-Clinton/Edwards.

He lives literally about a 15 minute run from GA-06. Between weird county lines and the district lines they might as well all be the same place.

[ajc0918]

"@DeKalbVotes: Turnout Count Update for Congressional Districts 6: Total as of 10 am: 4,428"

Note sure how this compares but this is the total for DeKalb from 10AM.

[ajc0918]

DeKalb Turnout Update for Congressional Districts 6: Total as of 3 pm: 12,608

[ajc0918]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is Trump's 4th GOTV tweet today on this race.

This race is obviously the most pressing issue currently facing the nation.

[ajc0918]

Turnout Count Update for Congressional Districts 6: Total as of 5 pm: 16,295

[ajc0918]

Turnout Count Update for Congressional Districts 6: Total as of 5 pm: 16,295

Is this the entire District or just DeKalb County?

Sorry just the DeKalb portion which has around 22% of the district's population (I think). But it's the only county giving out turnout numbers.

[ajc0918]

From a random person on twitter: Update #GA06 Evansdale 681 votes cast. Blue precinct. Heavy poll traffic, lines 5:21 @ossoff #gapol

This precinct voted 67% for Clinton.

[ajc0918]

Hannah Perkins @hannahkatt_

As of 5pm Fulton Co Precinct SS26 is reporting 1,418 votes of the +3,000 registered voters.#gapol #FlipThe6th

5:10 PM - 18 Apr 2017 · Fulton County North Annex Service Center

GAGOP right now:

Your schtick is old.

Why do you guys do this before every single election?

Because this is an election forum.

[ajc0918]

Turnout on part with 2016 presidential election:

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Ossoff might really pull this off by a percentage point

This precinct voted 60.4% for Clinton.

[ajc0918]

@DecisionDeskHQ  10s10 seconds ago
More
 Polls will remain open at 2 precincts in Fulton County for a while longer, all results delayed 1 hour from that authority.

[ajc0918]

Cobb County results beginning at 7:45pm.

[ajc0918]

Numbers from DeKalb are just in person absentee, not mail in absentee

[ajc0918]

Was it expected that Bob Gray would do that poorly in DeKalb EV?

[ajc0918]

@katiefoody
(Not fun) #GA06 fact: Poll workers have to collect and drive memory cards from voting machines to county offices. Takes time.

[ajc0918]

Which is more likely: 50%+1 or 40%

[ajc0918]

The turnout is pretty huge in all these Dekalb precints and thats not even including early vote... he could pull this thing off.

Relax...

[ajc0918]

What was the early vote target for Cobb?