GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Gass3268]

DKE has raised 1 million for Ossoff in the month of February:

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[Gass3268]

If Ossoff wins in the special election he'll have no problem winning this district again in 2018. Ossoff's biggest risk in 2018 would be the GAGOP gerrymandering the seat out from under him - such a hypothetical gerrymander probably wouldn't look very pretty but it would do its job by putting Ossoff in an unwinnable position.

You think it'd be insane for the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade just to kick out one guy, but ICYMI they are literally in the middle of redrawing the State House map just because 2 out of the 180 seats have Democratic office-holders even though they were drawn for Republicans. They're so insistent on getting rid of those two Democrats they're literally redrawing the whole map to do it

It's going to survive the courts ?

Considering how racial gerrymanders in NC and VA have recently gotten smacked down, doubtful.

[Gass3268]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

I agree with the sentiment, but I don't really think this tweet is evidence of that. That person would make the same jump with any Democratic House Leader.

Before I clicked, though, I thought it was going to be a quote from Pelosi saying something along the lines of "Ossoff is a true liberal, and a close personal friend. I am proud to endorse him and hope to see him in Congress next to me!"

No because most voters would not care who Tim Ryan or Joe Crowley is they'd have low name ID. Look at Schumer/McConnell's numbers most Americans don't know who they are.

That's not true - and beyond your general dishonesty, Schumer's reputation can turn even more negative very quickly.

Today's Q poll had Pelosi with better approvals than Schumer.

[Gass3268]

Cook has also moved this to Toss Up

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Remember that if Ossoff doesn't make 50%, there's still the runoff, and the expectations game will probably evolve quite a bit between now and then.

Ossoff also has a huge warchest where he could immediately start bombarding the Republican winner with negative ads the instant the race is called next Tuesday.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/rrh-poll-sponsored-by-decision-desk-hq-ossoff-39-handel-15-gray-12-in-ga06/

N=321, IVR/Internet. While the results are similar to others, it's worth noting that this electorate is going to be very hard to poll.

Also:

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[Gass3268]

The early vote in 2016 in this district was R+20. Even if/when the Republicans take the lead tomorrow, on the last day of early vote, they will still be far below the advantage they had last year.

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[Gass3268]

The early vote in 2016 in this district was R+20. Even if/when the Republicans take the lead tomorrow, on the last day of early vote, they will still be far below the advantage they had last year.

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If trump were running for congress he'd be in trouble...

The prior Presidential election is the best indicator of how an open seat will vote.

[Gass3268]

Group allied to Trump launches an attack add on Gray and the Club for Growth

[Gass3268]

Samuel L. Jackson cut a radio ad for the DCCC that will play on Urban Radio in the Atlanta Metro

[Gass3268]

Revily poll of GA-06:

Ossoff 45
Handel 17
Gray 16
Moody 9

[Gass3268]

Before anyone forgets, Emerson believes in a magical land where cell phones don't exist.

[Gass3268]

How is Ossoff going to raise taxes and bring in illegal immigrants don't Rs control Congress? I don't get this line of messaging from Rs.

Same way Cory Gardner was going to ban birth control

RIP Condoms

[Gass3268]

538 has developed a GA-06 Special Election Precinct Benchmarks for Ossoff Spreadsheet. I imagine this will be a good resource to have tonight.

[Gass3268]

Midterm level turnout in the most Democratic precinct in DeKalb County:

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[Gass3268]

Midterm level turnout in the most Democratic precinct in DeKalb County:

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This is good to hear with the concern that he blew too much on EV

Should be noted that DeKalb County had the worst EV situation.

[Gass3268]

AP results by County: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/GA_Page_0418.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

In the counties as a whole, Clinton won Cobb 48/46, Fulton 68/27, and DeKalb 79/17. But the district just skates through part of each county, so those numbers aren't really that helpful. Still, Ossoff should do better in DeKalb than in Fulton, and better in Fulton than in Cobb.

538 has a Google Sheet that they will update the vote by precinct.

[Gass3268]

Thunderstorms and in some parts hail are now here. Also:

Ben Jacobs @Bencjacobs  21m21 minutes ago
483 Election Day votes so far at the First Baptist Church in Roswell. Precinct has roughly 2000 voters

Clinton got 47.32% in this precinct.

[Gass3268]

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https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/854417128773918720

This precinct went from 48.85% Obama to 60.41% Clinton.

[Gass3268]

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This is Trump's 4th GOTV tweet today on this race.

[Gass3268]

Turnout Count Update for Congressional Districts 6: Total as of 5 pm: 16,295

Is this the entire District or just DeKalb County?

[Gass3268]

Greg Bluestein‏ @bluestein
Tea leaves: Dems in #GA06 are buoyed by especially high turnout in Sandy Springs precinct that overwhelmingly backed Nunn in '14. #gapol

High dem ED turnout in delkalb is to be expected considering the EV was anemic due to limited availability of early voting spots.

Sandy Springs is in Fulton