GA-6 Special election discussion thread (user search)
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  GA-6 Special election discussion thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 252723 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,635
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: February 14, 2017, 11:39:36 PM »

I kinda get the feeling the DCCC is punting on the special election, and is saving their time and energy (and money) for the 2018 general instead. We'll see though.

They're clearly not; Ossoff has -- already -- set a record for fastest online fundraising for a congressional candidate, beating Elizabeth Warren's 2012 campaign.

Can he win? This area is very Republican downballot (it was the first part of Georgia to even consider supporting Republicans, back in the mid-1960s, and was already pretty solid for them by the time Reagan came along), but Trump is weak here, and it's demographically consistent with the sort of place where Trump's approvals have probably slid since his inauguration. I think it'll depend on how the Top Two primary shakes out -- I think a D v. D top two is an underrated possibility, that Ossoff might even be favored against a few of the candidates running more Trump-friendly campaigns, and that even against the others Trump can be used as a cudgel. This district is not KS-4; this is a place where the strategy the Democrats want to use could actually work (though we'll see in practice).

I'd still put it as Leans R or so. But Ossoff is definitely in with a shot.
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,635
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2017, 10:14:17 PM »

Could we get a comparison to how Early Voting went down here in 2016? This district came out to a 48/47 Trump victory, so its very likely considering the discrepancy between early voting and the Election Day vote in 2016 that the early vote here was a double-digit Clinton victory...but having only 28% of the electorate be Republicans still seems obscenely low in a district like this one.
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,635
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2017, 02:49:31 PM »

Dems getting under 40 in Georgia while coming close in Kansas and possibly Montana would at least serve to sound some alarm bells at the DCCC regarding their strategy. I would hope.

Should be noted that Democrats came close in Kansas mostly off the strength of the swing in Sedgwick County (so, Wichita and its suburbs), rather than the rural areas, which did swing towards Democrats but much more mildly.
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