GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[smoltchanov]

Unlikely. District is anti-Trump, but still mostly conservative. And Ossoff credentials as Lewis staffer would be great in GA-05, but not so important in GA-06, which acquiesced to Civil Rights long ago, but hardly champions them. If Republicans nominate Roy Moore-type candidate - possible, but, probably, only in this case.

[smoltchanov]

Likely D, but closer to lean, IMO.

Absolutely no way. Likely to lean R depending on candidate. And Ossof is hardly the best possible candidate Democrats could run here - a B-list at best (most likely C-list). This is not a district that worships Civil Rights heroes. It accepted Civil Rights, of course, but mostly votes by wallet...

[smoltchanov]

Can he win? Just ask Scott Brown, Bill Owens, Charles Djou, Bill Foster, Don Cazayoux, Travis Childers... etc.

You could add Walt Minnick and many others. Of course - he can. But a probability of this (IMHO) isn't high. About 10-15%

[smoltchanov]

This is a possible pick up but it will be razor close. it will most likely flip back to R in 2020.

Why not in November 2018? It's special after all...

[smoltchanov]

What happened to Tom's wife, Betty, running? She's a legislator in the Georgia House, currently.

She decided to staty as legislator.

[smoltchanov]

Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.

Still i don't believe Ossooff has path to victory. A liberal urban Atlanta man, whose main argument is a support  by Civil Rights icon in a district, that adopted to Civil Rights, but most concerned about taxes and own wallet - well, we shall see..

[smoltchanov]

Checked my junk mail this morning. DCCC is sending fundraising emails for this race.

Good to know.

Still i don't believe Ossooff has path to victory. A liberal urban Atlanta man, whose main argument is a support  by Civil Rights icon in a district, that adopted to Civil Rights, but most concerned about taxes and own wallet - well, we shall see..

You can support civil rights while still caring about your wallet.

I hope Democrats also invest in that Montana race, though.

Agree about Montana. And repeat "we shall see" about Georgia..

[smoltchanov]

Honestly if Ossoff or Quist/Curtis even make it close, I'd consider it a moral victory.

Sure. Both district are "normally Republican". But it's specials, and - with Trump as President...

[smoltchanov]

Since the Democrats need to win in districts like GA-6 to take back the House, it would not be a good sign if they lost this race by more than a few points, especially with Trump's approval rating being where it is and the fact that the base is motivated right now, like the town halls and protests showed.

Honestly, it will take time for downballot republicans HRC voters to vote downballot for dems, so honestly if John Ossoff could lose it by less than 10 points, I would be happy.

It took decades for downballot conservative Democrats in the South to vote republican downballot. Some still vote Democratic for local offices..

[smoltchanov]

Likely D, but closer to lean, IMO.

Absolutely no way. Likely to lean R depending on candidate. And Ossof is hardly the best possible candidate Democrats could run here - a B-list at best (most likely C-list). This is not a district that worships Civil Rights heroes. It accepted Civil Rights, of course, but mostly votes by wallet...

Sorry I meant Likely R. Why in the world doesn't this forum have a notification system..

Now i fully agree...

[smoltchanov]

Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatives turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

That's empirically wrong. The incumbent presidential party almost always loses seats in the midterm elections, Democrats included. Dem's made gains in 2006 with Bush and picked up house seats in '82 '86 and '90. This is well known fact of U.S. elections.

Yeah, but keyword seems to be substantial. Will, say, 15 seats gain, be considered a substantial gain?

[smoltchanov]

Good result (i expected Ossoff to get 45-46%). May be - not great (that would be an outright victory), but, surely - good. Right now i see run-off as 50-50 affair, though a lot can change in 2 months...

Now the most interesting thing will, probably, be Montana-AL (i don't see Democrats winning SC-05, it's very different from districts like GA-06, though even there Democrats may get decent results like KS-04)

[smoltchanov]

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.

But he got my)) Prefer "business progressive pragmatism" of Silicon Valley to "yahoo populism"....

[smoltchanov]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

You guys dropped $10 million on this race and matched Clinton's performance

Which is nothing to scoff at. They will actually probably outperform Hillary by about 2% when Dems are added together. Consider that it usually takes years for downballot to catch up to the Presidential topline. It's only five months later. Anyone thinking this is a bad showing for Democrats is on some nice crack.

Also, people assuming that Handel will get 100% of the other R voters should be warned. Handel hasn't really been attacked yet, other than a small CFG ad buy. When the hits about her being a career politician who can't keep a job inevitably go on air, come back to me. FWIW, Ossoff was either tied or narrowly leading her in all runoff polling, and these are polls that underestimated his jungle primary showing. This thing is a tossup.

Absolutely agree

[smoltchanov]

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.

Silicon valley- you mean the place where companies rake in 10%+ profit margins and underpay tech workers?

Shouldn't berniebots NOT like some of the left's glorification of the tech sector?

The liberals that I see praising Silicon Valley the most are DLC types.

And what's bad with that? Every liberal is obliged to be anti-DLC "bold progressive"? Why? "Liberal" doesn't mean being communist or even socialist..

[smoltchanov]

"Making Metro Atlantaa the Silicon Valley of the South"

ewww he's lost my vote.

Silicon valley- you mean the place where companies rake in 10%+ profit margins and underpay tech workers?

Shouldn't berniebots NOT like some of the left's glorification of the tech sector?

The liberals that I see praising Silicon Valley the most are DLC types.

And what's bad with that? Every liberal is obliged to be anti-DLC "bold progressive"? Why? "Liberal" doesn't mean being communist or even socialist..

There's plenty of room to the right of communist or socialist for liberal without including DLC.

Yes, but why this maniacal desire to exclude it? "Always march to the left" Not every Democrat is a "bold progressive", not everyone is even a liberal, and, IMHO, that's normal.. After all, there are only two main parties in US, so they are unlikely to be as ideologized as in Europe, where there is 4-5 (even 10) parties, spanning the whole spectrum from far left to far right..

[smoltchanov]

Well,
Lean Dem now, barring a higher turnout for republicans, I don't see how Handel can win.

If she will be able to combine ALL Republican votes of yesterday - why not? After all - Republicans got about 51% of total votes yesterday. Difficult? Yes. But - possible..

[smoltchanov]

Because from my experience with run offs in France, all rightwing candidates won't be totally combined. She will get a vast majority of them but 2-3-4-5 points will likely end up to Ossoff.

What stimulus do rightwingers have to vote for solid left-winger Ossoff in run-off? even that 2-3-4-5%?

[smoltchanov]

MS is another Southern state all too many people forget about. Assuming the Clinton implosion isn't the new maximum % among rural and black voters, Mississippi's rapid demographic turnover is going to eat away at the GOP over time. Romney only won MS by like 4 among those under the age of 65.

Yeah, but i expect it to become competitive only by about 2030, and Democratic leaning by about 2040. Not all of us will survive until then...

[smoltchanov]

Finally, a poll!

GA-6 Runoff - Anzalone Liszt Grove (D): Ossoff +1

Jon Ossoff - 48%
Karen Handel - 47%
Undecided - 5%

*This is an internal poll for the Ossoff campaign by a pollster that worked for Clinton and Obama.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/01/poll-ossoff-in-dead-heat-with-handel-in-georgias-6th/

IMHO - somewhat better for Handel then for Ossoff. He stays put on 48% - exactly the percentage he got in primary, while she more-or-less successfully attracted vast majority of split Republican primary vote. The only forecast that can be made of it: "it will be close" (i am reasonably sure that no candidate will surpass 52% mark here). That's all...