GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[windjammer]

Likely not

[windjammer]

Since the Democrats need to win in districts like GA-6 to take back the House, it would not be a good sign if they lost this race by more than a few points, especially with Trump's approval rating being where it is and the fact that the base is motivated right now, like the town halls and protests showed.

Honestly, it will take time for downballot republicans HRC voters to vote downballot for dems, so honestly if John Ossoff could lose it by less than 10 points, I would be happy.

[windjammer]

Even with Scott Holcomb, I don't think this seat flips and given what a poor fit Osoff is for this district, I don't think it's a particularly good test of the national mood either.  With Holcomb, the margin would tell the tale.  What you'd want as a test-case for the down-ballot effect would be a strong Democrat against a weak Republican in an open seat race (a suburban or exurban version of Jean Schmit vs. Paul Hackett).  I don't think Handel is as weak as Schmit or even Oberweiss, but I agree with Maxwell that she's capable of running a "does everything wrong" campaign.  Holcomb could probably turn that into a razor-thin loss and there's a former (?) state representative here who'd won a very Republican district in a special not too long ago.  He might work too, but Osoff is simply the wrong guy and he may not even make the run-off.  If the Republicans win the run-off by single-digits against someone as weak as Osoff, they should be absolutely terrified, but I don't think we can read too much into it if Osoff loses by a large margin.  

MT's seat depends on the candidates, but is a potentially a decent sign of how non-rust belt rural whites are feeling.  If Curtis is nominated, it won't tell us anything, but a Quaist vs. Giafonte (or however the name is spelled, I'm in a rush ) could be very instructive about the aforementioned group, especially if the DCCC gives Quaist the support he needs.  Like Handel, Gianforte is no Mean Jean, but he is still very capable of running a piss-poor campaign (it's part of why he lost the Governor's race ).  

Anyway, hopefully we'll get some better test-cases down the road as even Montana is hardly an ideal district.  If the Democrats win either of these, it should terrify Republicans as neither should really even be close on paper.

Regarding your point on rust best democrats, all the special elections than happened in IA and MN: the democrat nominee massively overperformed Clinton and Obama.

[windjammer]

If Ossoff wins in the special election he'll have no problem winning this district again in 2018. Ossoff's biggest risk in 2018 would be the GAGOP gerrymandering the seat out from under him - such a hypothetical gerrymander probably wouldn't look very pretty but it would do its job by putting Ossoff in an unwinnable position.

You think it'd be insane for the General Assembly to redraw congressional districts mid-decade just to kick out one guy, but ICYMI they are literally in the middle of redrawing the State House map just because 2 out of the 180 seats have Democratic office-holders even though they were drawn for Republicans. They're so insistent on getting rid of those two Democrats they're literally redrawing the whole map to do it

It's going to survive the courts ?

[windjammer]

It's a toss up and Ossoff is the underdog.

[windjammer]

He's not going to win outright lmao don't be ridiculous.

[windjammer]

I mean, seriously, who really expected him to win outright without a run off?

[windjammer]

And by the regarding this poll:
All republicans: 51%
All democrats:   43%

I expect the final result to be close , a pub win by less than 5 points.

[windjammer]

Very likely that this turns into an Ossoff vs Handel runoff

Likely but I wouldn't say very likely, it's a special election so that is difficult to estimate. Many polls have different results for the 2nd/3rd place.

[windjammer]

Hmmmmm interesting

[windjammer]

What % of the vote did Clinton get in this district?

46%

[windjammer]

Well,
Lean Dem now, barring a higher turnout for republicans, I don't see how Handel can win.

[windjammer]

Well,
Lean Dem now, barring a higher turnout for republicans, I don't see how Handel can win.

If she will be able to combine ALL Republican votes of yesterday - why not? After all - Republicans got about 51% of total votes yesterday. Difficult? Yes. But - possible..

Because from my experience with run offs in France, all rightwing candidates won't be totally combined. She will get a vast majority of them but 2-3-4-5 points will likely end up to Ossoff.

The only thing that can save them is increased Pub turnout, if it is based just on these results and assuming turnout remains identical, she's clearly the underdog.

[windjammer]

Because from my experience with run offs in France, all rightwing candidates won't be totally combined. She will get a vast majority of them but 2-3-4-5 points will likely end up to Ossoff.

What stimulus do rightwingers have to vote for solid left-winger Ossoff in run-off? even that 2-3-4-5%?

Because this is how run offs work, the frontrunner is he has a massive big over the second one, he always gets some additional points out of nowhere.

[windjammer]

Well, of course republicans absolutely need to campaign here. They have a problem with turnout, if they cannot fix their turnout and that this is similar with the first round, they lose.

[windjammer]

So the expectation of him getting a big bump from dissident Republicans didn't happen, at least so far.

Keep in mind the polls have underestimated him by 5 points last time.

Unless republican turnout surges or dem turnout goes down: he should win something like 52-53 against Handel

[windjammer]

Why isn't Handel leading with numbers like these?

I agree it makes no sense.

[windjammer]

Ossoff is going to win by 4 points in the end unless dem turnout goes down or rep turnout goes up and I see non reason to believe it is going to happen.

[windjammer]

Updating my prediction:
Ossoff 53-47

[windjammer]

I don't understand why people think it's going to be really close (<0.5). I mean, based on the results of the first round, Ossoff was the favorite and Trump has become even more unpopular now.

[windjammer]

Oh God, not McDonald again. I'm getting 2016 flashbacks from this.

That being said, Ossoff should win 51-49 or so. This is not the same as MT.

I would say more 52-48

[windjammer]

I mean, I know, that early voting doesn't mean a lot of things but, any news about it? Is it favoring Ossoff or Handel?

[windjammer]

Wow. I am considering moving this to Likely D, but this pollster was also too Democratic-friendly in 2016.

That being said, I'm pretty sure Ossoff has this. I wouldn't say it's all about Trump, but the Democrats' campaign organization and ground game here has been pretty strong. This is another sign of wealthy, educated suburbs (and GA in general, of course) moving to the Democrats, whether RINO Tom likes it or not. Pretty sure GA-SEN 2022 will be Lean/Likely D at this rate, even if a Democrat is president.

Depends whether Trump is reelected or not.

But yes, demcrats would be fooled not to contest the senate seats in 2020 and 2022

[windjammer]

Obvious mound of salt, but:

Ryan Grim @ryangrim
Outside House GOP group tells me their internal poll over the weekend has Handel down 9 to Ossoff. That'd be the biggest gap so far. #GA06

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/874777448025600000

Is it again their strategy of lowering expectations?

[windjammer]

I think tomorrow I will not watch that online. I like political analysis, that's why I'm posting here. But no matter how close the result would be, there would be so massive overreaction to this poll, and that wll be pretty dull.