What were the best predictors of the White HRC primary vote?

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

This is especially noticeable if you look at Indiana: a lot of >95% White counties were some of the most pro-HRC counties in the state in the Democratic primary. Has anybody listed the best predictors of the White HRC primary vote?

I'm much more befuddled by why anybody voted for Hillary in the primary than I am about any other aspect of the 2016 election.

[catographer]

Southern whites, college-educated whites, upper-income whites.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Southern whites, college-educated whites, upper-income whites.

-Bernie won DuPage IL and Hamilton IN, though. However, in MA, every Kasich-voting town did, indeed, go for HRC in the primary, so it's true the richest of rich Dems did go for HRC. Bernie actually nearly won Denton County, TX, as well.

That still does not explain the East-West divide in South Dakota, though. And how do you tell southern Whites from non-southern ones?

[NOVA Green]

Eharding----

I am a little confused about the exact original question that is being posed: "What were the best predictors of the White HRC Primary vote?"

Firstly, "White", is a bit problematic in terms of identity in an extremely multi-cultural society, where there are many individuals who have family backgrounds from a variety of different races/ethnicities that don't self-identify as part of only one "check box" on a Census form or voluntary self-identification form when applying for a job. Additionally, many Latinos might self-identify as White or African-American, while still identifying as Latino because of Country of origin, shared primary/secondary language, etc....

Secondly, Are we talking the word "predictor" --- One definition being- "something such as an event or fact that enables you to say what will happen in the future"

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/predictor

Or are we talking about a Predictor Variable, commonly known as an independent variable?---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_and_independent_variables

So if we are talking about what results were the best predictors of the HRC White Primary Vote overall, than M&Ms answer certainly sees to show some directed correlations, although it should be noted that there significant regional/statewhite primary variations....

If look at the very first primary caucuses----

Iowa- indicated a significant weakness among Blue-Collar Whites in places like (Black Hawk County, Linn County, and the towns along the Quad Cities area in Eastern Illinois, and among University Students (Johnson County), but also strength among White Collar workers in Polk County (Des Moines).

NH- indicated that her weakness among White voters from a wide variety of economic backgrounds was not just limited to a Midwest caucus state Iowa, but was also the symptom of a much deeper problem among Independent voters as well...

SC- Indicated that she still held significant strength among Southern White Democrats, if we look at the far NW part of the state, as well as the wealthy suburbs of Columbia (Lexington County). So not only was Bernie getting slaughtered among Southern African-American Democrats, but also losing by significant margins among White SC Democrats.

Super Tuesday in the South, reinforced that pattern, even in counties/areas where one might have expected Bernie to perform better in heavily White Counties.

I'll let someone else speak to the Super Tuesday New England states, that can run down these numbers by Township and better versed to speak to that subject regarding the Clinton electoral primary coalition in MA & RI, and the implications for the GE performance...

Michigan- This should have been a giant warning sign to the Clinton campaign, both as a result of the collapse of her support in rural parts of the State, a less than spectacular performance in Oakland & Macomb, and Wayne County not delivering the types of numbers expected.... Trump winning MI in the open primaries should have drawn even more attention in the GE. Trump captured 48% of the Rep vote in Macomb and 41% in Wayne!!!

Wisconsin---- If Michigan was a warning sign, Wisconsin should have been a four story alarm fire, considering that it has voted Republican for Statewide and Senate races in recent years, and looking the the Wisconsin map is almost as ugly as the Oregon Primary Map....

So,

1.) If we look at the overall "predictors" of HRC 2016 Primary performance using the definition regarding the predication of the outcome of the "White" vote during the 2016 Primary, then clearly IA/NH/SC/ Super Tuesday, and MI/WI pretty clearly indicated her relative strengths and weaknesses (Coalition) among these voters during the primaries. One could say "but what about Ohio?"---- that was an unusual situation because of the surge of cross-over voters in OH to back Kasich, that likely reduced Bernie's performance in many parts of Ohio (NE Ohio, SE Ohio, and other parts of the state)

2.) There is a direct correlation between the collapse of HRCs rural and blue-collar support in Northern States (Midwest springs immediately to mind) and her extreme under-performance among White voters in those same regions/counties/cities/ and even precincts

So are we talking about the predictors in the '16 Dem primary specifically or the predictors for HRC performance in the GE?

[Beet]

The primaries were very deceptive. Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio, and Pennsylvania gave very strong evidence she was golden in Appalachia, then suddenly collapsed in Kentucky and West Virginia after already having sewn up the nom.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

The primaries were very deceptive. Virginia, Tennessee, Ohio, and Pennsylvania gave very strong evidence she was golden in Appalachia, then suddenly collapsed in Kentucky and West Virginia after already having sewn up the nom.

-DINOs who forgot to change registration. I see every reason to ignore them, so I'm only focusing on open primaries. Ohio was deceptive due to many Sanders supporters voting for Kasich.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

Eharding----

I am a little confused about the exact original question that is being posed: "What were the best predictors of the White HRC Primary vote?"

Firstly, "White", is a bit problematic in terms of identity in an extremely multi-cultural society, where there are many individuals who have family backgrounds from a variety of different races/ethnicities that don't self-identify as part of only one "check box" on a Census form or voluntary self-identification form when applying for a job. Additionally, many Latinos might self-identify as White or African-American, while still identifying as Latino because of Country of origin, shared primary/secondary language, etc....

Secondly, Are we talking the word "predictor" --- One definition being- "something such as an event or fact that enables you to say what will happen in the future"

http://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/predictor

Or are we talking about a Predictor Variable, commonly known as an independent variable?---

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_and_independent_variables

So if we are talking about what results were the best predictors of the HRC White Primary Vote overall, than M&Ms answer certainly sees to show some directed correlations, although it should be noted that there significant regional/statewhite primary variations....

If look at the very first primary caucuses----

Iowa- indicated a significant weakness among Blue-Collar Whites in places like (Black Hawk County, Linn County, and the towns along the Quad Cities area in Eastern Illinois, and among University Students (Johnson County), but also strength among White Collar workers in Polk County (Des Moines).

NH- indicated that her weakness among White voters from a wide variety of economic backgrounds was not just limited to a Midwest caucus state Iowa, but was also the symptom of a much deeper problem among Independent voters as well...

SC- Indicated that she still held significant strength among Southern White Democrats, if we look at the far NW part of the state, as well as the wealthy suburbs of Columbia (Lexington County). So not only was Bernie getting slaughtered among Southern African-American Democrats, but also losing by significant margins among White SC Democrats.

Super Tuesday in the South, reinforced that pattern, even in counties/areas where one might have expected Bernie to perform better in heavily White Counties.

I'll let someone else speak to the Super Tuesday New England states, that can run down these numbers by Township and better versed to speak to that subject regarding the Clinton electoral primary coalition in MA & RI, and the implications for the GE performance...

Michigan- This should have been a giant warning sign to the Clinton campaign, both as a result of the collapse of her support in rural parts of the State, a less than spectacular performance in Oakland & Macomb, and Wayne County not delivering the types of numbers expected.... Trump winning MI in the open primaries should have drawn even more attention in the GE. Trump captured 48% of the Rep vote in Macomb and 41% in Wayne!!!

Wisconsin---- If Michigan was a warning sign, Wisconsin should have been a four story alarm fire, considering that it has voted Republican for Statewide and Senate races in recent years, and looking the the Wisconsin map is almost as ugly as the Oregon Primary Map....

So,

1.) If we look at the overall "predictors" of HRC 2016 Primary performance using the definition regarding the predication of the outcome of the "White" vote during the 2016 Primary, then clearly IA/NH/SC/ Super Tuesday, and MI/WI pretty clearly indicated her relative strengths and weaknesses (Coalition) among these voters during the primaries. One could say "but what about Ohio?"---- that was an unusual situation because of the surge of cross-over voters in OH to back Kasich, that likely reduced Bernie's performance in many parts of Ohio (NE Ohio, SE Ohio, and other parts of the state)

2.) There is a direct correlation between the collapse of HRCs rural and blue-collar support in Northern States (Midwest springs immediately to mind) and her extreme under-performance among White voters in those same regions/counties/cities/ and even precincts

So are we talking about the predictors in the '16 Dem primary specifically or the predictors for HRC performance in the GE?

-2016 Dem primary specifically. General election is a somewhat different ballgame I don't want to get into here.

Probably the most interesting state in the 2016 Democratic primaries is South Dakota, where Sanders counterintuitively performed terribly in two Obama-Trump counties (Day and Marshall).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Income was a big factor. Age too, although ironically Vermont is the second oldest state.